Caroline Carlin's Posts - JDFN Financial Network2024-03-19T06:38:06ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlinhttps://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2526540153?profile=RESIZE_48X48&width=48&height=48&crop=1%3A1https://jdfn.com/profiles/blog/feed?user=2uqhbxpxd6kyr&xn_auth=noCAD, Aussie and Gold Weekly Overview - September 23 closetag:jdfn.com,2011-09-25:2203529:BlogPost:381152011-09-25T20:03:12.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p><strong>USDCAD</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541425878?profile=original" target="_self"><img class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541425878?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></img></a></p>
<p>Last week showed a fantastic bullish break and surge of more than 200 pips above parity for the Loonie, reaching the weekly 161.8% extension on the previous swing high, and closing well above the 138.2% level after a small correction. Both our targets at the weekly SMA100 and the projection of the flag pole at 1.0238/40 were met, the…</p>
<p><strong>USDCAD</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541425878?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541425878?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>Last week showed a fantastic bullish break and surge of more than 200 pips above parity for the Loonie, reaching the weekly 161.8% extension on the previous swing high, and closing well above the 138.2% level after a small correction. Both our targets at the weekly SMA100 and the projection of the flag pole at 1.0238/40 were met, the second one much earlier than expected. Friday left a decision candle (long-legged doji) and we might have a retest of the 1.0000 level before further upside. A bullish continuation would bring us to the weekly SMA200 (around 1.0550/80) if 1.0400 is broken.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>AUDUSD</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541439740?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541439740?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>Despite the moderate gap at last week’s opening, the Aussie failed to turn back up and close it; instead, and after some consolidation early in the week, it has fallen below August lows, reaching beyond the daily 161.8% Fibonacci extension and closing on Friday below that level and round number 0.9800. On the weekly charts, the price went all the way down to the SMA100 and below the 127% extension, from where it was rejected, ending with a small doji candle on Friday.</p>
<p>The early move of this pair has been to the upside, reaching 0.9860 and presently above the 30-minute SMA100 though I would expect a pull-back to the opening price or even last week’s lows, before initiating a correction for a retest of parity level, with intermediate targets at 0.9930 (broken August support and 38.2% correction on last week’s descent), and higher to 1.0060/70 (61.8% retracement).</p>
<p>Should we fail to correct and bears come back in force, next targets to the downside are the weekly 138.2% extension at 0.9615/00, and 161.8% extension around 0.9420/00.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>XAUUSD (GOLD)</strong></p>
<a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541440145?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541440145?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a><br />
<p>Gold lost nearly 20000 points after retracing to the 38.2% weekly Fibonacci level and touched the middle line of the Bollinger bands; on the daily charts, the fall reached the 138.2% extension and SMA100. I would expect a continuation of the bearish move towards the weekly SMA34 and daily 161.8% extension (1570.00/1.550.00) with intermediate support at May highs, and further to the daily SMA200 at around 1530.00. A bounce back to the upside would lead us to a retest of the broken support of August lows, near the round number 1700.00 as first target, and then the confluence of the daily SMA34 and middle line of the Bollinger bands at 1800.00 which, if broken, could lead to another attempt to breach the highs and reach the psychological level we are targeting at 2000.00.</p>Yen Pairs Weekly Overview - September 23 closetag:jdfn.com,2011-09-25:2203529:BlogPost:382152011-09-25T17:43:15.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p><strong>USDJPY</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541424837?profile=original" target="_self"><img class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541424837?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></img></a></p>
<p>The Dollar-Yen didn’t reach the lows and remained last week in a tight range between round numbers 76.00 and 77.00. We could be having a double bottom on the daily charts and my expectations are for a bullish break of the confluence of the daily SMA34 and middle line of the Bollinger bands, targeting the resistance at previous highs…</p>
<p><strong>USDJPY</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541424837?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541424837?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The Dollar-Yen didn’t reach the lows and remained last week in a tight range between round numbers 76.00 and 77.00. We could be having a double bottom on the daily charts and my expectations are for a bullish break of the confluence of the daily SMA34 and middle line of the Bollinger bands, targeting the resistance at previous highs (around 77.85) and the weekly middle line of the Bollinger bands at about 78.80. Next target on the upside would be the weekly SMA34 and August highs at 80.20. Should we have a bearish continuation and break below 75.90, the first target would be around 75.50/25, then 75.00/74.80 (daily 161.8% extension) and further fall towards 73.40/72.30 (weekly 127% and 138.2% Fibonacci extensions).</p>
<p><b> </b></p>
<p><strong>EURJPY</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541425107?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541425107?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The Euro-Yen didn’t bottom out and continued its fall making new lows at 102.20, from where the price bounced back for a retest of the break but closing below the previous week’s lows (103.70). The pair didn’t meet our bearish targets either, although we can expect some extension to the daily 127% and 138.2% from last swing low, in the support area between 101.70 and 100.80. Weekly 161.8% extension is just below round number 102.00, but the charts are showing a falling wedge and we might have some correction towards the upper trend line of the descending channel it is inscribed in, around 107.95/108.00.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>GBPJPY</strong></p>
<a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541425143?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541425143?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a><br />
<p>The Geppy didn’t bottom out either and breached through the weekly 161.8% extension as we had expected in our bearish scenario, going beyond our target at 118.80. The price went back up for a retest of the daily 161.8% extension on Friday, closing very near that level. We also have a steep falling wedge here and potential recovery up to previous broken support at around 123.10 as first target, then the upper line of the descending channel and next resistance level in the area between 124.25 and 125.50.</p>Swiss Franc Weekly Overview - September 23 closetag:jdfn.com,2011-09-25:2203529:BlogPost:380162011-09-25T14:41:43.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p><strong>EURCHF</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541425319?profile=original" target="_self"><img class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541425319?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></img></a></p>
<p>The Euro-Swiss Franc made a new high last week at 1.2340, reaching and breaking above our target at the weekly SMA34 level. We are still away from the descending trend line and price could be contained by the strong resistance area between 1.2350 and 1.2390, with also the daily SMA200 in the middle. If that level is broken, we might…</p>
<p><strong>EURCHF</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541425319?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541425319?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The Euro-Swiss Franc made a new high last week at 1.2340, reaching and breaking above our target at the weekly SMA34 level. We are still away from the descending trend line and price could be contained by the strong resistance area between 1.2350 and 1.2390, with also the daily SMA200 in the middle. If that level is broken, we might attempt the 138.2% extension on the weekly swing high to around 1.3200/50. However I would maintain my views for a correction to the previous August highs around 1.1970, then 1.1900/1.1850 and possibly further correction to 1.1700/1.1650 before resuming an upwards move.</p>
<p><b> </b></p>
<p><strong>GBPCHF</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541425447?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541425447?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The Pound-Swiss Franc reached the weekly SMA34 and the daily SMA200, from where I would expect a correction to the 38.2% Fibonacci (around 1.3520/1.3500) or 1.3335 (50% of the previous daily swing high) where a confluence of SMA100 and SMA34 seems to be forming. There is some good support between 1.3700/1.3660 and lower between 1.3530/1.3430. Further upside would require a break of the daily SMA200 and we would be targeting 1.4730/50, around the 138.2% extension.</p>
<p><b> </b></p>
<p><strong>USDCHF</strong></p>
<a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541425717?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541425717?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a><br />
<p>The Swissie continues on the rise as we expected and made a new high last week, although we are still below our previous targets. We are still targeting the extensions on the previous daily swing high, in the area between 0.9275 and 0.9380, and as a medium-term second step, the weekly SMA100 which is now near 0.9780. Daily charts are showing a rising wedge though, so we could expect some retracement to the support area between 0.8620 (38.2% Fibonacci correction) and 0.8550 (June highs).</p>Euro and Pound Weekly Overview - September 23 closetag:jdfn.com,2011-09-24:2203529:BlogPost:379142011-09-24T20:27:12.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p><strong>EURUSD</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541425119?profile=original" target="_self"><img class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541425119?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></img></a></p>
<p>Last week the markets opened with a downside gap for the Euro-Dollar, briefly closed for a continuation and small breach of the previous week’s lows, as expected in our bearish scenario, and finally ending at about the same price, just above round number 1.3500. I would expect further downside for this pair, targeting the daily 127%…</p>
<p><strong>EURUSD</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541425119?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541425119?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>Last week the markets opened with a downside gap for the Euro-Dollar, briefly closed for a continuation and small breach of the previous week’s lows, as expected in our bearish scenario, and finally ending at about the same price, just above round number 1.3500. I would expect further downside for this pair, targeting the daily 127% extension at 1.3320, then the weekly 161.8% extension at 1.3170, daily 138.2% level near round number 1.3100 and further to the daily 161.8% level at around 1.2860.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>GBPUSD</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541425185?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541425185?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The Pound-Dollar reached a 138.2% extension on both weekly and daily charts, meeting and breaching our target of 1.5350, and rejected from the lows it made at 1.5326 to perform a 38.2% correction on the overall week’s move. Some more retracement could occur to retest the broken support at 1.5630 but the overall tone is strongly bearish and I would expect further extension to 1.5200/1.5150 (161.8% weekly and daily levels respectively).</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>EURGBP</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541425425?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541425425?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The Euro-Pound attempted twice to break the previous week’s highs at 0.8790 but failed and was rejected to a 23.6% pullback, closing at almost the same price as Friday 16. I would expect some consolidation between the daily SMA200 and SMA100 (weekly SMA100 and SMA34) before a break of the daily symmetrical triangle formation. Target to the upside is the weekly 61.8% retracement and August highs at around 0.8875/90 and on the downside we would be looking for a breach of this month’s lows around 0.8530 and weekly SMA200.</p>Australian Dollar Updatetag:jdfn.com,2011-09-20:2203529:BlogPost:373322011-09-20T09:04:59.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p>I didn’t expect the downwards gap in my previous analysis and we had a nice descent afterwards, retest and small breach of previous lows at 1.0180. However, we can see on the hourly charts that price bounced neatly from the trendline that is binding those to August lows, and seems to be recovering to the upside. This could be the end of an Elliott Wave 5 and the subsequent projection of the next C wave at a 38.2% retracement on wave 2, brings us to around 1.0360.…</p>
<p></p>
<p>I didn’t expect the downwards gap in my previous analysis and we had a nice descent afterwards, retest and small breach of previous lows at 1.0180. However, we can see on the hourly charts that price bounced neatly from the trendline that is binding those to August lows, and seems to be recovering to the upside. This could be the end of an Elliott Wave 5 and the subsequent projection of the next C wave at a 38.2% retracement on wave 2, brings us to around 1.0360.</p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541432248?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541432248?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>Downside targets after a break of yesterday’s lows are 1.0110, 1.0060 and parity (a 138.2% extension of wave 2 swing low) and finally a retest of August lows at 0.9926 and 150% extension.</p>
<p><br clear="all"/>Price is presently struggling at the SMA100 level (on 30-minute charts we can see an even stronger resistance formed by the confluence of the SMA200 and SMA100), which is also barely above the neckline of an inverted Head and Shoulders formation. If the present level is broken, a 100-pip projection of the head would bring us to around 1.0340 (which is also a point on a steeper descending trendline formed by the highs made on September 8 and 9), and we might go further to 1.0360 for a gap closure and retest of the SMA200.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541432339?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541432339?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>I think that 1.0360 can be the last bullish station, maybe even we might not surpass 1.0300 (although that gap closure should be a must) if bears come in force, and that from there the Aussie is heading straight to the basement. However the bulls don’t usually give up easily on this pair and this makes for an interesting ride in both directions where everybody can win (or lose) independently of their bias.</p>
<p>I am presently bullish and conservatively targeting 1.0340, but will bail out at any signs of weakness should the present level hold, or at key level 1.0300.</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>Yen Pairs Weekly Overview - September 16 closetag:jdfn.com,2011-09-18:2203529:BlogPost:371222011-09-18T20:09:09.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p><strong>USDJPY</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413720?profile=original" target="_self"><img class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413720?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="375"></img></a> As expected, the Dollar-Yen went back to the lows of the previous week, and stayed inside a range from Wednesday to Friday. There is no clear direction for this pair as of now, although I would expect some bearish continuation if the bottom at 76.00 is broken, in extension towards 71.80, 70.30 and 66.30 as successive medium-to-long-term targets.…</p>
<p><strong>USDJPY</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413720?profile=original"><img width="375" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413720?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="375"/></a>As expected, the Dollar-Yen went back to the lows of the previous week, and stayed inside a range from Wednesday to Friday. There is no clear direction for this pair as of now, although I would expect some bearish continuation if the bottom at 76.00 is broken, in extension towards 71.80, 70.30 and 66.30 as successive medium-to-long-term targets. <a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413810?profile=original"><img width="375" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413810?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="375"/></a></p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p>On the upside, and provided 77.80 resistance level and further upper trendline of the descending channel are broken, I maintain my expectations for this pair to reach the 78.40/60 area (around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) 79.30 (above daily SMA100 and around the 80%) and 80.20 (last month’s highs and daily SMA200).</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>EURJPY</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413953?profile=original"><img width="375" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413953?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="375"/></a>The Euro-Yen made a new low as expected, bouncing back to the upside from the 103.88 level. I would expect a push to the confluence of the middle line of the weekly Bollinger bands and SMA34, which is also the 50% retracement on the previous swing low and upper line of the actual descending channel, at around 113.30, with possible continuation to the 61.8% level and SMA100 at around 116.50 as a second target, and further to the upper trendline of the bigger descending channel at the 76.4% retracement level around 118.00/50.</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413936?profile=original"><img width="375" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413936?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="375"/></a>On the Daily charts, a retest of the broken support at 108.00, middle line of the Bollinger bands and 50% retracement on the swing low as first target, then a follow up to the SMA34, 61.8% correction and upper trend line of the descending channel at around 109.00. A bearish move would look to target 101.50/00 in extension (127% and 138.2%) and next downwards target level medium-term is the 161.8% extension at 99.00.</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>GBPJPY</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541457058?profile=original"><img width="375" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541457058?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="375"/></a>Another bearish week for the Geppy, reaching a new low and lower trend line of the slightly descending channel at 120.68. Our target of 120.90 was reached and second target at 120.40 would need a break of this channel.</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541468396?profile=original"><img width="375" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541468396?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="375"/></a>On the daily charts we still have room to the downside to reach the lower line of the falling wedge, however we might be bottoming out this time and a retracement to retest the broken support at 123.38 (which is also the actual middle line of the Bollinger bands) and further continuation to the SMA34 is possible, targeting 125.00 resistance level (July lows). Next upwards target is the daily SMA100 and June lows resistance area (127.70/128.30). Should the wedge be broken to the downside, we would be targeting the 161.8% extension on August range at 118.80.</p>Swiss Franc Weekly Overview - September 16 closetag:jdfn.com,2011-09-18:2203529:BlogPost:371212011-09-18T09:45:41.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p><strong>EURCHF</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413547?profile=original" target="_self"><img class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413547?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="375"></img></a> Very little action for the Euro-Swiss Franc last week. This pair stayed in a very small range after its previous week’s surge and is lingering barely above the 61.8% retracement from the last swing low. We might attempt to reach 1.2260/70 at the weekly SMA34 level or even to the upper trendline of the descending channel, and I expect from there…</p>
<p><strong>EURCHF</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413547?profile=original"><img width="375" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413547?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="375"/></a>Very little action for the Euro-Swiss Franc last week. This pair stayed in a very small range after its previous week’s surge and is lingering barely above the 61.8% retracement from the last swing low. We might attempt to reach 1.2260/70 at the weekly SMA34 level or even to the upper trendline of the descending channel, and I expect from there a retracement to the levels set up last week: previous August highs around 1.1970, then 1.1900/1.1850 at the middle Bollinger band level, and possibly further correction to 1.1700/1.1650 before resuming an upwards move.</p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413547?profile=original"><img width="375" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413547?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="375"/></a></p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p>On the Daily charts, I maintain the expectations I had last week on the bullish side (provided some correction occurs), for a continuation and break of round number 1.2400, and subsequent attempt to perform an extension between 1.2500 and 1.2650 (127% and 138.2% respectively).</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>GBPCHF</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414254?profile=original"><img width="375" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414254?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="375"/></a>Last week was mostly bearish for the Pound-Swiss Franc, which reached the upper line of the descending channel and then made a 23.6% correction on the previous daily swing high and bounced back to the upside on Friday. I still expect more correction to the weekly middle line of the Bollinger bands, around 1.3450, for a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on daily charts and perhaps a retest of the SMA100 at 1.3350 or even further to the SMA34 around 1.3200.</p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414232?profile=original"><img width="375" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414232?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="375"/></a></p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p>Should the highs and descending trend line be broken, we have another one to breach at around the 76.4% retracement of the downmove, near 1.4700. If this level is broken, we would be heading towards the weekly SMA100 at around 1.5500 medium-term. Daily targets are set at 1.4090, 1.4530 and 1.4650 on the upside, and at 1.3570, 1.3350 and 1.3200 on the downside.</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>USDCHF</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541415833?profile=original"><img width="375" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541415833?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="375"/></a>The Swissie retraced last week to the SMA34 and closed above it at the 0.8760 level. The next step to attempt is the strong resistance area between 0.9300 and 0.9400, where it can encounter some struggle before continuing in its way back to parity. The next step in the way if it succeeds to break 0.9400, is 0.9700/80 around the SMA100 level.</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541416056?profile=original"><img width="375" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541416056?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="375"/></a>On the Daily charts, the price retraced to the SMA200 as expected, and was rejected back to the upside, so I would expect a retest of last week’s highs around 0.8930, with continuation in extension to 0.9400 which is the 127% level on the whole move up from August lows.</p>Euro and Pound Weekly Overview - September 16 closetag:jdfn.com,2011-09-18:2203529:BlogPost:374222011-09-18T08:29:01.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p><strong>EURUSD</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541424816?profile=original" target="_self"><img class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541424816?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="375"></img></a> The Euro-Dollar barely made a new low last week, with price well supported at 1.3500 from where it bounced back for a retest of the broken ascending trend line and pierced the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, ending just above the weekly SMA100. Our bullish views were on point as price went well above our targets reaching above 1.3900. I would…</p>
<p><strong>EURUSD</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541424816?profile=original"><img width="375" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541424816?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="375"/></a>The Euro-Dollar barely made a new low last week, with price well supported at 1.3500 from where it bounced back for a retest of the broken ascending trend line and pierced the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, ending just above the weekly SMA100. Our bullish views were on point as price went well above our targets reaching above 1.3900. I would expect another attempt to reach the SMA200, 38.2% retracement and previous rising trend line, and further to a 50% correction level at the round number 1.4000 which if broken could lead to the confluence of the SMA34 and middle line of the Bollinger bands, around 1.4200/90. Another scenario that can set in place though, is a break of the lows and continuation to the next support at 1.3340, then to our medium-term target of 1.2880/1.2900.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541424960?profile=original"><img width="375" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541424960?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="375"/></a>On the daily charts, price has made a 38.2% correction and tested the broken 1.3840 level, we could have a continuation to the 50% or 61.8% in the area between 1.4000 and 1.4150, and then resume lower towards the 138.2% extension on the previous swing low at 1.3100, targeting previous lows as first step (around 1.3500).</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>GBPUSD</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541453879?profile=original"><img width="375" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541453879?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="375"/></a>The Pound-Dollar fell a little more and made new lows but didn’t advance much last week, staying inside a range above and below July lows (1.5700/1.5850). The neckline of our hypothetical Head and Shoulders formation was slightly pierced and I maintain last week’s view for a medium-term bearish target to 1.5350/00.</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541453937?profile=original"><img width="375" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541453937?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="375"/></a>On the daily charts, a pullback to the middle line of the Bollinger bands and 38.2% correction near round number 1.6000 is possible before resuming the downtrend and reach for an extension below 1.5500. The retracement could continue to 1.6150/60 (50%) where there is a confluence of the three moving averages.</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>EURGBP</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541454211?profile=original"><img width="375" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541454211?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="375"/></a>The Euro-Pound retested the previous lows, breaking through and reaching the lower trend line of the ascending channel and close to the SMA200, reaching a 127% Fibonacci extension on the previous swing low around 0.8520. From this point the price resumed its bullish tone, touching the middle line of the Bollinger bands, and reached both projected targets of 0.8640 and 0.8730 where price is now sitting at the SMA34 level after Friday’s close. I would expect a bullish break and continuation towards June highs (0.9075) and the upper trendline of the channel (0.9100/50), with an intermediate target at the 0.8890 level where it can find some good resistance.</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541454302?profile=original"><img width="375" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541454302?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="375"/></a>On the Daily charts, we can appreciate a rejection from SMA100 after having pierced the SMA200, and price is still inscribed into a descending channel. 0.8850 would have to be clearly broken for further upside aiming to August highs and 138.2% extension at 0.8890, then to next target at the 161.8% extension around 0.8960.</p>The Truth Beneath Winning And Losing Streakstag:jdfn.com,2011-09-16:2203529:BlogPost:374202011-09-16T14:29:27.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p>There is an enormous amount of erroneous stereotypes made up by human beings so they can avoid to take responsibility for the results of their actions.</p>
<p><br></br> Neither a series of successful trades in your account, nor a losing spree debacle happen merely "by chance". In trading as well as in life, ups and downs occur in succession, these are unavoidable cycles, and some of them trend a bit before reversing, but the clue to the winning or losing streak is simply your own ability to…</p>
<p>There is an enormous amount of erroneous stereotypes made up by human beings so they can avoid to take responsibility for the results of their actions.</p>
<p><br/> Neither a series of successful trades in your account, nor a losing spree debacle happen merely "by chance". In trading as well as in life, ups and downs occur in succession, these are unavoidable cycles, and some of them trend a bit before reversing, but the clue to the winning or losing streak is simply your own ability to FOCUS or the lack of it.<br/>
Focus will make the difference as when being totally present you are able to detect small changes with more precision (or less delay) and make decisions accordingly, which will then most often be correct, and if wrong you will be able to apply a solution to the problem instantly, and not feel overwhelmed by the whole situation. You will be seeing the whole picture including all the possible outcomes, positive and negative, and your mind will be prepared to react appropriately in front of any of those outcomes as soon as they start occurring.</p>
<p><br/> We usually make bad decisions because of wrong emotions and physical unfitness, but even in the worst physical state, being totally focused can wipe out any tiredness and add renovated strength for the duration of the situation to take care of, like in a state of emergency. Not that I would recommend to do so though, except in very seldom and critical situations should they happen. A balanced lifestyle, with enough room for all your professional and personal activities, is paramount.</p>
<p><br/> But, what is exactly meant by the term “focus”? It is certainly NOT staring endless hours without even blinking looking at charts. The following are the elements that I consider essential to achieve properly focused and successful results in trading.</p>
<p><br/> <strong>- Motivation</strong><br/>
There is no point in undertaking so many risks and work real hard if those aren’t fueled by a powerful motivation, going way beyond the plain and everyone’s goal of just “making a huge load of money”. In fact, if it’s only greed that moves you to trade, you will have sooner than later to wake up to a not so pleasant reality. Paradoxically, trading can be very easy indeed, if you are deeply interested in all the elements and never stop learning and discovering new approaches and details of your favorite currency pairs and strategies.</p>
<p><br/> <strong>- A positive, stable mood</strong> <br/>
Let’s say you’ve just had a very good trading week and optimized your strategy, your family relationships have improved to a loving, understanding and smooth cooperation, you have reached that total focus state and feel exhilaration as never before. You start making plans so to crank your goals up another notch. Suddenly there is a power outage for several hours, or one of your children starts a heated discussion, or even the neighbour is drilling his apartment’s walls and is making a hell of a noise.</p>
<p><br/> And then you react. Your emotional and mental state blows out as a balloon, and all the nicely up-trending positive attitude is lost, wasted in an useless and negative rejection of the situation, which is nothing more than a reluctance to change immediately, step out of the wonderful and blissful state to take responsibility, make decisions and find an urgent solution for the unpredicted eventuality.</p>
<p><br/> <em>Re-acting</em> is like endlessly repeating the problem while building up tons of negative energy in your body and mind. Never ever allow random circumstances to take hold of and break your precious focused attention. The only positive “reaction” is to acknowledge and accept the situation and TAKE ACTION to make sure there are no obstacles left in the middle of the previous perfectly balanced state.</p>
<p><br/> Learn to recognize the unavoidable pullbacks and set up a “mood switch” so you give back as little fruitful energy as possible when confronted to negative issues.</p>
<p><br/> <strong>- Confidence</strong><br/>
A well thought-of trading plan and strategy, with all the known and unknown parameters under control, thoroughly tested and confirmed, will bring about a strong confidence which in turn will bring precision to your actions and decisions. When in doubt, simply do not trade. But when you do it, know that you are doing the right thing.</p>
<p><br/> <strong>- Alertness</strong><br/>
When you trade, do not allow any interruptions and dedicate your attention wholly to the markets. Plan accordingly so every other pending matters of your life have been properly rescheduled, postponed or solved.</p>
<p><br/> Eat well. Sleep well. Breathe fully and take care of your overall health as a fundamental priority. Do not trade when sick or tired. And never attempt to make trading decisions when under the influence of alcohol or other drugs. Some medical treatments can cause foggyness as a side effect, be aware and avoid the charts for a while if this is your case. Come back when you’re well in shape.</p>
<p><br/> Know your charts and indicators well. Know exactly where you are at any moment as to price: understand price action, supply and demand, and technical elements in their relationship with fundamentals. Strive to apprehend the whole picture and how all currencies interact.</p>
<p><br/> <strong>- Patience</strong><br/>
Learn to wait for the best trading opportunities and refuse to accept any lesser deal unless properly reassessed. Choose your entry price and stick to it. Avoid capitulating because of your anxiousness to have a market exposure running. Take it easy, there are thousands of opportunities every day, and the next day. If what you see on the charts doesn’t match your expectations, leave that computer and go out for a walk, take a nap, fix yourself a meal or just enjoy doing nothing for a while. Sitting still and staring at charts for hours on end is extremely tiring, and fruitless. Overexposure to a single activity brings about exhaustion and frustration, and also can be highly destructive to your discerning ability. Be creative. Depending on your strategy, set up price alerts, or leave limit orders in place and stand up and out of that chair, NOW! Your eyesight and general well-being will improve significantly.</p>
<p><br/> <strong>- More Patience.</strong><br/>
Read the above paragraph. One more time.</p>
<p><br/> <strong>- No particular bias and Timelessness</strong><br/>
When it’s time to let go of a trade, let it go. There’s another one waiting for you. Do not cling to a position, nor adopt a fixed directional bias. Every decision should be made as starting it all over again with a fresh point of view. Practice with dedication until you know you are able to move WITH the market and at its pace, not behind, not ahead.<br/>
Trade “in the zone”, like floating in a timeless and unlimited, no-directional space. Especially if you are a scalper, know that price can go either direction at any time and it always gives a hint of its next step. Learn to read those hints on the charts and move with price as in a harmonic dance, perfectly synchronized and totally in the present.</p>
<p><br/> <strong>- Again, another dose of patience.</strong></p>
<p><br/> <strong>- Humbleness, Modesty and Thankfulness</strong><br/>
Be grateful for the successful opportunities, and accept both losses and wins with serenity. Your successes are the fruit of your dedication, knowledge, discipline and focus, but remember there will always be another thing to learn, and that circumstances can change at any time. Again, understand the whole picture and know where you are standing on that map. Overconfidence and self-boasting are as dangerous as greed: focus gets then lost in empty daydreaming.</p>
<p><br/> - <strong>A specific time frame to respect without any excuses</strong> (unless there are still problematic trades to monitor but even here, focus on avoiding as much as possible getting trapped in such a situation): make a daily total break on your trading, with all positions closed. Turn off your computer. Take a new look the next day and start over. Balance your life, work, family, chores and pleasures. Take the time to rest and enjoy.</p>
<p><br/> If you feel depressed, you will tend to let things go wrong and out of proportion. If you aren't properly fed and rested, your mind will be foggy and unless there is a really strong motivation to overcome this, you will let go at the most crucial moment.</p>
<p><br/> Another situation to be wary of is the “too much bliss” times, which can lead to overconfidence and overtrading. Should things go wrong, the emotional drawdown is thereafter much harder to overcome. We get used very quickly to pleasurable situations, and are even quicker to avoid the confrontation with any negative realities. Thus, when everything around has been working as a charm, both in your trading and in your personal life, and you start feeling like floating on a big blue cloud of pure bliss, life is perfect and you are the Master of the markets, your ability to accept and react swiftly to sudden, unexpected and even violent changes will be highly impaired if you are not focused enough, and especially if you lack the “timelessness” factor and the ability to execute absolute and rapid reversals on your points of view.</p>
<p><br/> There is always something that will go wrong and this is a natural condition. Life is nothing else than a game, albeit a serious one. Understand that winning or losing streaks are under your total responsibility. There is no such thing as “chance”… but in turn there are plenty of OPPORTUNITIES: right decisions to make, right attitudes to adopt in front of both favorable and unavoidable events. Learn to recognize the times when you need to squeeze the most out of profitable conditions, and be wise enough to stay away of the markets as much as possible when the tide of your own personal cycles changes. Always save a plan B, C and even D for every situation, in your trading or in life.</p>
<p><br/> <strong>Reversion to the mean is to be expected after any peak performance. Make sure that you work in such a way that your own living and trading results start trending and thus the mean keeps climbing every day a little bit higher.</strong></p>CAD, Aussie and Gold Weekly Overview - September 09 closetag:jdfn.com,2011-09-12:2203529:BlogPost:369182011-09-12T13:22:37.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p><strong>USDCAD</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413697?profile=original" target="_self"><img class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413697?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></img></a></p>
<p>The Loonie rose as expected last week, reaching barely 23 pips below parity, which it finally achieved earlier today. At the present moment the price is a little above Friday’s high but was rejected from the new highs it made at 1.0025. It is too soon to predict here a double top, but we could consider it might have a retrace to…</p>
<p><strong>USDCAD</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413697?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413697?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The Loonie rose as expected last week, reaching barely 23 pips below parity, which it finally achieved earlier today. At the present moment the price is a little above Friday’s high but was rejected from the new highs it made at 1.0025. It is too soon to predict here a double top, but we could consider it might have a retrace to 0.9910/0.9880 (38.2% and 50% correction on this month’s daily swing high, and also the confluence of the SMA34 and middle line of the Bollinger bands). There should be good support at 0.9910 (June highs). An additional 100+ pip move to the upside could occur if today’s highs are broken, to reach the 138.2% extension, coinciding with the present level of the weekly SMA100 (area between 1.0125 and 1.0175). For a longer term view, I maintain last week’s projection of the previous flag pole to the weekly 138.2% extension (1.0238/40).</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>AUDUSD</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413871?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413871?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>Last week was definitely marking a continuation of the short-term bearish trend of the Aussie, and price closed below the weekly SMA34. As we had forecasted, the price ranged between 1.0600 and near 1.0400 before the rate announcement, which didn’t bring a particular outburst given that the “no-change” I rates was already priced in.</p>
<p>Our first target was reached on Friday (1.0450) near the end of the session, and our second target earlier today; price has since continued to fall steadily to the 161.8% daily extension on the previous swing low, which was surpassed. The Aussie is however encountering as of now some good support above 1.0300 from where it seems to be willing to adopt, again, a bullish character despite the bearish trend. Tonight we will have NAB Business Confidence numbers which will hopefully help define this trend a little more, by now I am bullish up to a retest of the recently broken supports at 1.0470/80 and 1.0500 (which are also roughly the 50% retracement on 4-hour charts and today’s daily pivot levels respectively). Medium-term, this pair should revisit parity which lies now on the respected weekly trend line, however support area 1.0200 to 1.0270 seems particularly strong and might need some more time (or heavy negative fundamentals) to be breached.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>XAUUSD (GOLD)</strong></p>
<a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414058?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414058?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a><br />
<p>The previous highs were pierced last week, however we cannot say it was a clear break; the level was rejected and Gold retraced about 61.8% of the upwards move, forming a symmetrical triangle on the daily charts and closing near the center point. Support at round number 1800.00 held well, and the next bullish target for this pair would be an extension to 1960.00/70.00 if it achieves a new high over the next few days. Another attempt to break 1800.00 is also possible, targeting 1760.00/40.00 (downside extensions 127% and 138.2% on last week’s range) if it succeeds. The ultimate goal on a medium to long term is psychological level 2000.00.</p>
<p> </p>Yen Pairs Weekly Overview - September 09 closetag:jdfn.com,2011-09-12:2203529:BlogPost:368202011-09-12T11:15:46.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p><strong>USDJPY</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413928?profile=original" target="_self"><img class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413928?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></img></a></p>
<p>The Dollar-Yen modestly rose as we had expected, not yet reaching our targets though, but slightly breaking above the previous highs and ending on Friday above the confluence of the daily SMA34 and middle line of the Bollinger bands. There is still some more road to travel on the weekly charts to reach the middle bands, and the pair…</p>
<p><strong>USDJPY</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413928?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413928?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The Dollar-Yen modestly rose as we had expected, not yet reaching our targets though, but slightly breaking above the previous highs and ending on Friday above the confluence of the daily SMA34 and middle line of the Bollinger bands. There is still some more road to travel on the weekly charts to reach the middle bands, and the pair still looks heavy and in an accumulation period. Friday price action ended on a doji and the 38.2% correction was achieved; despite the price holding barely above the highs, we have seen this week a bearish start bringing the pair below the daily SMA34 and middle band, falling towards a possible retest of the lows, and at least most probably some ranging action for the next few days. Should the USD/JPY break 77.80, and rise above the 50% retracement at 78.15, the next levels to target would be 78.40/60 area (around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) 79.30 (above daily SMA100 and around the 80%) and 80.20 (last month’s highs).</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>EURJPY</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414120?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414120?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>Another bearish week for the Euro-Yen, heading towards our target at psychological level 100.00. The lows at 108.00 were broken as expected and our primary target of 105.00 was almost reached on Friday, having by now been surpassed. Price extended down to the 127% level on previous weekly swing low, and to the 138.2% level on daily. We are presently trading further down and making a slight recovery after falling below the 161.8% daily bearish extension (weekly 138.2%), and price is presently holding above 104.70. I would expect further downside, however this could happen after a retest of the broken support area. Given the steady trending behaviour of this pair though, I think it can extend below 104.00 before retesting, and I will be targeting the 161.8% weekly extension at around psychological number 102.00, if today’s lows are broken.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>GBPJPY</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414996?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414996?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The Pound-Yen tested and broke last month’s lows as forecasted, closing below that level. As for the EUR/JPY, this week has started with the continuation of the bearish move, where this pair reached the weekly 127% extension and has broken March lows (123.00). I maintain the same expectations as last week’s for the medium term prices, and on a shorter term view, will be targeting 120.90 and 120.40 (daily 161.8% and weekly 138.2% extensions respectively).</p>Swiss Franc Weekly Overview - September 09 closetag:jdfn.com,2011-09-12:2203529:BlogPost:368182011-09-12T08:50:21.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p><strong>EURCHF</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413726?profile=original" target="_self"><img class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413726?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></img></a> The Euro-CHF reversed to the upside last week, reaching near the SMA34 and closing at the 61.8% weekly Fibonacci retracement level. We have a strong engulfing candle and a fairly high possibility for this pair to start a new trend, however we are still as of today below the weekly SMA34 from which we could bounce back down for a retest of August…</p>
<p><strong>EURCHF</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413726?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413726?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a>The Euro-CHF reversed to the upside last week, reaching near the SMA34 and closing at the 61.8% weekly Fibonacci retracement level. We have a strong engulfing candle and a fairly high possibility for this pair to start a new trend, however we are still as of today below the weekly SMA34 from which we could bounce back down for a retest of August lows. On the daily charts, the price has broken above SMA100 and is presently in a tight consolidation with a long series of very small candles on the hourly and 4-hour charts, still trading below the daily pivot though. A fall to the S2 level and previous August highs around 1.1970 can be expected as a first target, with next step being about the round number 1.1900 where there is some good support (the area is comprised between 1.1810 and 1.1890, 1.1900 being just below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (1.1911) on the strong bullish move from last Tuesday). I would expect then a continuation upwards, and if the actual weekly SMA34 level (1.2340) and round number 1.2400 is broken, we could be heading to an extension between 1.2480 and 1.2700 (127% and 138.2% respectively on daily charts).</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>GBPCHF</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541416810?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541416810?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The Pound-CHF indeed broke the previous week’s highs as the confirmed weekly pin bar was suggesting, and reached a 61.8% correction up to the SMA34 level. Friday closed well above the daily SMA100 almost reaching the SMA200 and performing a 127% extension on the previous swing high. Same as for the EUR/CHF, we still have to confirm a trend reversal and a bounce from the SMA200 and subsequent correction to the daily SMA100 or even further to the middle line of the Bollinger bands (1.3200) can occur before we can see a follow-up of the strong moves made last week. I would vouch for a retest of the broken resistance at 1.3590/60, then another attempt to break the SMA200 level with short-term target at 1.4351 and medium-term goal at around 1.4840 (138.2% and 161.8% daily extensions).</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>USDCHF</strong></p>
<a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541416958?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541416958?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a><br />
<p>As we were expecting last week, the Swissie did a clear break of the descending channel and reached above the weekly 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and SMA34. On the daily charts, we can see that the pair behaved well in excess of our targets, closing on Friday at 1.8830 after making a new high at 1.8863. Under a similar view as for its siblings, EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF, I would expect a correction to at least the daily SMA200 at around 1.8700, then the first next support area (between 0.8620/0.8560, nearly a 38.2% retracement) as next target, then maybe a continuation to the 50% retracement on last week’s bullish move, near 0.8340. Should the daily highs and SMA200 be broken afterwards to the upside, we would be targeting the weekly previous highs and SMA100 at 0.9770/80.</p>Euro and Pound Weekly Overview - September 09 closetag:jdfn.com,2011-09-12:2203529:BlogPost:367152011-09-12T07:07:29.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p><strong>EURUSD</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414855?profile=original" target="_self"><img class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414855?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></img></a></p>
<p>The weekly support at SMA34 and 38.2% retracement level failed to hold for the Euro-Dollar and the price broke further down, closing at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Since the beginning of this week, it has reached below the daily 138.2% extension on the previous swing low, and we could expect a continuation of the bearish move towards…</p>
<p><strong>EURUSD</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414855?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414855?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The weekly support at SMA34 and 38.2% retracement level failed to hold for the Euro-Dollar and the price broke further down, closing at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Since the beginning of this week, it has reached below the daily 138.2% extension on the previous swing low, and we could expect a continuation of the bearish move towards round number 1.3400 as a first target (daily 161.8% extension), the next step being around 1.2900 on a medium-term view. Some correction in the direction of Friday’s close (1.3660) could be expected to close the gap, and might push further up to retest the break of previous support level at 1.3840/50, a good entry price for further downside to the above-mentioned targets.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>GBPUSD</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414840?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414840?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The Pound-Dollar fell as expected, almost reaching July lows and 161.2% extension as of last week: price is presently trading below round number 1.5800 and very close to that support level. We sustain the view of the weekly Head and Shoulders formation, targeting 1.5350/1.5000 medium-term; on the daily charts the moving averages have started pointing down and SMA200 has been neatly broken, however we should be wary of a bounce and double bottom from the actual level (1.5790).</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>EURGBP</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541415412?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541415412?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>Due to the Euro greater weakness, our bullish targets on this pair did fail. The Euro-Pound indeed broke the confluence of the moving averages on the weekly charts, testing as expected the bottom line and 61.8% retracement reaching just below 0.8600. This week’s gap brought the price below the 138.2% Fibonacci extension level and presently looks like it is being rejected (most probably to fill the gap) to the upside. We can expect a correction to the previous support for a retest (0.8640), which is also today’s daily pivot point. Given that the rejection has taken place at the ascending weekly trendline level, I would vouch for a bullish outlook, at least to the above-mentioned level, and further upside to the previous lows and confluence of daily SMA34 and SMA200 at around 0.8730.</p>CAD, Aussie and Gold Monthly Outlook - September 2011tag:jdfn.com,2011-09-05:2203529:BlogPost:327172011-09-05T11:39:43.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p><strong>Weekly Update - September 02 close</strong></p>
<p><strong>USD/CAD</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413845?profile=original" target="_self"><img class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413845?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="350"></img></a></p>
<p>Monthly chart patterns suggest a possible double bottom (2007-2011) and thus a trend reversal could be in the making. We also have another triple bottom if we take account of April, May and July candles. The USD/CAD almost retraced all the way to the lows and is fighting against…</p>
<p><strong>Weekly Update - September 02 close</strong></p>
<p><strong>USD/CAD</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413845?profile=original"><img width="350" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413845?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="350"/></a></p>
<p>Monthly chart patterns suggest a possible double bottom (2007-2011) and thus a trend reversal could be in the making. We also have another triple bottom if we take account of April, May and July candles. The USD/CAD almost retraced all the way to the lows and is fighting against a fairly strong resistance level in the 0.9910/30 area and parity which, if broken, will be leading us towards the next level at around 1.0240/50 (roughly a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement on the last swing low) and further up on a longer term approach. The SMA200 (not shown) is presently at the level of March 2009 highs (1.2980/1.3000). The 38.2% correction area (1.0800/1.0900) is a strong resistance zone, just above the SMA34 and upper Bollinger band, where we might find some struggle before any further upside over the next year 2012.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541466714?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541466714?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The Loonie retraced down to the confluence of the weekly SMA34 and middle line of the Bollinger bands, near the 50% correction, from where it was rejected and closed last week above the 38.2% level. I would expect a continuation in extension from the previous swing high, a test and break of parity (August highs) and impulse towards the weekly SMA100 level (near the 127% extension) as first target, and secondly to the 138.2% at 1.0248, which also coincides with the monthly analysis as probable target in a medium term view.</p>
<p>On the Daily charts, the price closed on Friday exactly at the middle line of the bands, well above the crossing of SMA34 over the SMA100 and also above the SMA200. Projection in extension of the previous flag pole gives us 1.0238/40 as the 138.2%, also in tune with the monthly targeted range.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>AUD/USD</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541467649?profile=original"><img width="350" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541467649?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="350"/></a></p>
<p>The Aussie closed August candle still inside the steep rising wedge, however the deep spike and low price made earlier in the month marks the lower line of the previous ascending channel, which could be revisited again should the fundamentals trigger some more risk aversion in the markets. Also, it has since broken again the lower trend line and has been showing a slow but continuous descent afterwards. If this is the case, I don’t think however the price would go much further than the lows, as July 2008 highs coincides with the middle line of the Bollinger bands; we could maybe get down to the 50% correction at around 0.9700/0.9680 but unless the rates are heavily cut this pair is still very interesting for the carry and should soon regain its bullish temperament, after maybe some consolidation below parity.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541469191?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541469191?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>We are expecting the RBA rates in less than 24 hours and though there seems to be some nervous anticipation (strong fall at the market opening yesterday afternoon), the prices haven’t moved much over last week. It would seem to me that the price is being contained at about mid-way either from parity and last lows, or from July all-time highs, depending on the rate statement and outcome. I would proceed with much caution and wait for tonight news to be able to gauge the scope of the move with more accuracy. Bearish moves are fast and furious on this pair and negative swaps help a lot when it comes to profit taking on short positions.</p>
<p>Price ended last week at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on the last swing low, and I would expect it to stall between 1.0600 and 1.0500 (maybe even 1.0400) prior to the rate statement. On the Daily charts I would vouch for a 38.2% correction to around 1.0450 as first target, and 1.0350 as second target (50% retracement and SMA200). Let’s be very wary of any surprises.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>XAU/USD (GOLD)<br/></strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541486480?profile=original"><img width="350" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541486480?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="350"/></a></p>
<p>Gold has exploded off the grid and its well on its way to next psychological number 2000.00. I would expect a break of the previous highs and continuation to the upside before any significant correction.</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541486522?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541486522?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>Gold keeps on the rise and will probably try to reach 2000.00 over the next two weeks. However, I would expect some resistance and rejection at the 138.2% daily extension level (1995.00) and a similar behaviour as it exhibited when the price was expected to reach 1500.00 in the past. If the recent highs are effectively broken, be prepared for a relatively long consolidation range between 1920.00 and 1990.00/95.00.</p>Yen Pairs Monthly Outlook - September 2011tag:jdfn.com,2011-09-05:2203529:BlogPost:326252011-09-05T06:29:25.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p> </p>
<p><strong>Weekly Update - September 02 close</strong></p>
<p><strong>USD/JPY</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413693?profile=original" target="_self"><img class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413693?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="350"></img></a></p>
<p>The Dollar-Yen has been forming a pronounced falling wedge, ending near the bottom line last month. There is still some room to the downside but I would expect a bullish turn soon to break the upper line; there is a second descending channel line (a wider wedge, not…</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>Weekly Update - September 02 close</strong></p>
<p><strong>USD/JPY</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413693?profile=original"><img width="350" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413693?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="350"/></a></p>
<p>The Dollar-Yen has been forming a pronounced falling wedge, ending near the bottom line last month. There is still some room to the downside but I would expect a bullish turn soon to break the upper line; there is a second descending channel line (a wider wedge, not drawn) which would coincide roughly with November 2009 lows, April 2001 highs or January 2009 lows (84.70 to 87.00 area, with preference at 85.50) and this would be the first zone I would be targeting for this pair, on the longer term.</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541417689?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541417689?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>Another tight consolidation week for the USD/JPY, staying inside the 76.50/77.00 range. We could be having longs building up for the rise, although some more descent in extension could be seen below round number 75.00.</p>
<p>We are still below the moving averages on the Daily charts, but last lows could be signaling a bottom (which also form a double bottom if paired with last March spike down). I would expect a retracement to the weekly middle band and SMA34 levels (79.60 / 80.80) which are also Fibonacci’s 38.2% and 50%, as a first target; August daily spike near round number 80.00 has to be taken out clearly for much further upside.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>EUR/JPY</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541417780?profile=original"><img width="350" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541417780?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="350"/></a></p>
<p>Also on a falling wedge though at a less steep angle, the Euro-Yen has remained above last year’s lows despite its strong bearish tone. The pair is evolving inside a wide range between 105.50 and 123.10, presently at its bottom. Although it is soon to tell, we could be forming a double bottom and “W” pattern, however I would favor on the long term, a break of the support and round number 105.00 to reach towards the 127% extension on previous swing low as a first target, and maybe even the 138.2% level below (staircase breaks).</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541417937?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541417937?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The Euro-Yen keeps falling and last week was again bearish but didn’t reach the lows. The double bottom formed by January lows and March spike down seems a strong support but we could reach near psychological level 100.00 if the pair doesn’t recover its strength.</p>
<p>On the Daily charts, price appears to be targeting a break of the lows at 108.00 and further downside would situate the short-to-medium term target around 105.00 (between the 127% and 138.2 extensions on the last swing low).</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>GBP/JPY</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541418013?profile=original"><img width="350" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541418013?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="350"/></a></p>
<p>The pattern shown on the Geppy’s monthly chart is a descending triangle, which would suggest further continuation to the downside if the lows at 118.80 are broken. The projection of the inverted flag pole can lead us as low as 60.00 (161.8% extension) on a very long term, but we might find some support around 107.00/106.80 (confluence of the descending trend line and the lower channel line going from September 2000 to January 2009 lows).</p>
<p>A break to the upside and bullish recovery would target the previous highs at 140.50/141.00 (23.6% Fibonacci correction), then August 2009 highs at 163.20/30 (near the 50% retracement). There is a strong resistance level to conquer first at 148.00 (September 2000 lows). The next level if this resistance is broken will be around the 61.8% retracement (178.70 – round number 180.00 area).</p>
<p> </p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541440429?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541440429?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>Still on a steady bearish move, weekly Geppy seems preparing to break March lows and could go further towards 118.80 / 117.00 in weekly extension. We first need to retest and break last month’s lows at around 123.30 for continuing towards the daily 127%, 138.2% and 161.2 extensions as successive targets (121.20, 120.40 and finally 118.60).</p>Swiss Franc Monthly Outlook - September 2011tag:jdfn.com,2011-09-04:2203529:BlogPost:328162011-09-04T22:59:54.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p><strong>Weekly Update - September 02 close</strong></p>
<p><strong>EUR/CHF</strong><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541419842?profile=original" target="_self"><br></br></a><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541427118?profile=original" target="_self"><img class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541427118?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="350"></img></a></p>
<p>The Swiss Franc has been exhibiting a continued strength over the last two years and August was again a bearish month for the EUR/CHF after July’s strong rejection from the…</p>
<p><strong>Weekly Update - September 02 close</strong></p>
<p><strong>EUR/CHF</strong><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541419842?profile=original"><br/></a><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541427118?profile=original"><img width="350" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541427118?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="350"/></a></p>
<p>The Swiss Franc has been exhibiting a continued strength over the last two years and August was again a bearish month for the EUR/CHF after July’s strong rejection from the near parity level 1.0070. We might be near to a reversal but there is a long way to the upside at this time, as the pair is still inside a steep falling channel. I see equal possibilities for a push to the next resistance at around 1.2370 and further to a 50% retracement (1.2770) as well as for a revisitation of the lows and reach of parity.</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541428428?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541428428?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The price reached the upper line of the weekly descending channel and pierced to the middle line of the Bollinger bands, however the pair closed below the trend line and could have another try towards parity or at least a retest of the lows.</p>
<p>On the Daily charts, price closed on Friday below the confluence of the SMA34 and middle line of the bands, performing a 50% retracement on the previous move to the upside, and we could expect a continuation to the next 61.8% level on the short term as first target, and further fall to the lows (1.0080/70) as second target.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>GBP/CHF</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541428816?profile=original"><img width="350" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541428816?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="350"/></a></p>
<p>A similar behaviour can be appreciated for the GBP/CHF, where I would rather expect some consolidation pattern at the present levels for the next months to come, in the area between the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracements on the previous swing low. Price is here also roughly at the same distance from the lows and from the next resistance at the top of the steep descending channel near a 61.8% retracement. The following weeks will give us a better view about the reversal possibilities for this pair.</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541429005?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541429005?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>Last week started as a bullish continuation from the beginning of the month, however the price was strongly rejected after reaching the middle line of the weekly Bollinger bands and was unable to attain the upper trend line of the descending channel, ending on an engulfing-bodied candle. I see more probabilities of a further fall, or an accumulation move inside the range delimited by last week’s high and low.</p>
<p>On the Daily charts we can see that the price closed on Friday below the confluence of the SMA34 and middle line of the bands, after almost reaching the SMA100. The pin bar candle might suggest another attempt at breaking the highs for a push in extension to the 138.2% level and SMA200. The overall tone is still strongly bearish though so I would proceed with caution as a reversal is not confirmed yet for this pair.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>USD/CHF</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541429155?profile=original"><img width="350" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541429155?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="350"/></a></p>
<p>Also with a similar price action but a slightly different chart pattern, the Swissie has formed a falling wedge and could soon break the descent. We must wait for September to end to have a confirmation of the August pin bar, however the price came back inside the wider descending channel and we could expect a break to the upside and subsequent move towards the center line (around the 50% retracement of the swing low) as first target (0.9400/0.9600 area). We have a strong resistance area to surpass just above and up to parity before targeting the upper trend line of the channel.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><b> </b></p>
<a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541429323?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541429323?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a><br />
<p>The weekly descending channel was pierced to the upside and price almost reached the middle line of the Bollinger bands, settling for a 38.2% retracement on the last swing low. However, the week was bearish and the price went back inside the channel. Another attempt to break the channel and push towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and SMA34 can be on the cards on a medium term approach.</p>
<p>On the Daily charts, the price closed on Friday above the confluence of the SMA34 and middle line of the bands, which would suggest a potential continuation to the upside for a retest and break of the recent highs, towards the SMA100 level, as a first target, and further continuation to 0.8680/0.8700 for a 138.2% extension on the previous swing high, near the SMA200.</p>Euro and Pound Monthly Outlook - September 2011tag:jdfn.com,2011-09-04:2203529:BlogPost:327162011-09-04T09:53:35.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p><strong>Weekly Update - September 02 close</strong></p>
<p><strong>EUR/USD</strong><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413783?profile=original" target="_self"></a></p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413863?profile=original" target="_self"><img class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413863?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="350"></img></a> Over the last three months, the Euro-Dollar has been closely following the previous descending trend line with subsequent pin bars, after April’s break and May retest of…</p>
<p><strong>Weekly Update - September 02 close</strong></p>
<p><strong>EUR/USD</strong><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413783?profile=original"></a></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413863?profile=original"><img width="350" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413863?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="350"/></a>Over the last three months, the Euro-Dollar has been closely following the previous descending trend line with subsequent pin bars, after April’s break and May retest of resistance level 1.4200, mostly ranging between 1.4000 and 1.5000, and remaining above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. August ended on a doji and this month has started to the downside as most other pairs due to the bad US NFP data. We seem to be bound for another retest of the broken trend line and 1.4200 support and might retrace further (most probably to a stronger support at the 38.2% level – 1.3800/20) to gather new impulse towards the highs near 1.4940/50.</p>
<p> </p>
<a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413986?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413986?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a><br />
<p>A bearish week for this pair but still in range and reaching the tip of a symmetrical triangle. Price has closed above the three moving averages (SMA34, 100 and 200), at a level that has remained constant since the SMA200 break in mid-March. I would expect a break to the upside towards May highs (around 1.4940).</p>
<p>On the Daily charts, the price has been hovering around both SMA34 and 100 but still above SMA200, in a slightly ascending sideways move. Friday ended barely below psychological level 1.4200 and might fall to the 61.8% retracement on the 1.3840 to 1.4550 swing high, and I expect it to resume the actual range upwards and break last week’s high for further extension to 1.4820 (138.2%) as first target, then to the next level near round and psychological number 1.5000 (1.4990).</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>GBP/USD</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414045?profile=original"><img width="350" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414045?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="350"/></a></p>
<p>The Pound-Dollar has been forming a symmetrical triangle in a wide ranging pattern since early 2009, and evolving at the top of that range over the last semester. The inverted flag seems quite eloquent and would favor a bearish continuation, however another attempt to break 1.7000 level could occur. I would rather expect a further fall towards the base line of the triangle though, targeting 1.5400/1.5380 as first target, a level which seems strongly supported. If broken, the next step would be at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on the previous swing high, around 1.5200.</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414667?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414667?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a><br />
<p>Another bearish week for the Pound-Dollar, inside a triangle formation. We could be having a Head and Shoulders formation on the weekly charts with a neckline around 1.5900, giving us a projection to the downside to at least the previous lows (1.5350) and aiming to round number 1.5000 on a second step.</p>
<p>On the Daily charts the price remains above the SMA200 and could either turn back for a retest of the highs near round number 1.6000 or break below and reach the 138.2% or 161.8% extensions (1.5920/1.5800). I would wait for a clearer direction to confirm the bearish continuation of this pair.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>EUR/GBP</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414733?profile=original"><img width="350" class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414733?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="350"/></a></p>
<p>The Euro-Pound has been building a steady support level above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on the previous swing low, and after breaking the descending trend line last April. Both currencies have mostly been ranging against the USD, however I would expect the Euro to show a greater strength soon and bring this pair above a 61.8% retracement for a bullish continuation. For now, I think it will continue within the same range and favor a retest of the previous highs and further push towards 0.9200 over the next months.</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414878?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414878?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a>Last week was bearish and closed above the confluence of SMA34 and SMA100, reaching again near the 50% correction on the previous swing high, still inside an ascending channel. The pair is mostly ranging but as said above, I would expect further continuation to the upside on a medium-term approach, towards the upper line of the channel and previous highs (0.9070/80). Should the moving averages be broken, a test of the bottom line and 61.8% retracement (near 0.8600) is highly possible.</p>
<p>On the Daily charts, the Euro-Pound almost retraced to the 61.8% and could continue to the SMA200 and previous lows near 0.8650, with possible extension to 0.8580/50 (127% and 138.2% Fibonacci levels). I would watch closely the behaviour of both EUR/USD and GBP/USD to determine a longer term outlook, and in the meantime follow the ranging pattern of this pair.</p>CAD, Aussie and Gold Weekly Overview - July 22 closetag:jdfn.com,2011-07-24:2203529:BlogPost:261012011-07-24T23:09:30.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p><strong>USDCAD</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541428048?profile=original" target="_self"><img class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541428048?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></img></a> We have a double bottom both on the weekly and daily charts. Last week the price bounced back up from the lower line of the daily descending channel after testing May lows. I would expect a 50% retracement on weekly near 0.9660/70 which coincides with the middle line of the Bollinger bands, and as a second step a retest of the highs around…</p>
<p><strong>USDCAD</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541428048?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541428048?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a>We have a double bottom both on the weekly and daily charts. Last week the price bounced back up from the lower line of the daily descending channel after testing May lows. I would expect a 50% retracement on weekly near 0.9660/70 which coincides with the middle line of the Bollinger bands, and as a second step a retest of the highs around 0.9780/90 matching the level of the actual weekly SMA34.</p>
<p>On the daily charts, I would expect a pull back to the 50% Fibonacci level at around 0.9600, and middle line of the Bollinger bands as a first target; we could then have a continuation to the 61.8% level coinciding with the channel top and the confluence of SMA100 and SMA34 as a second target.</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>AUDUSD</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541434495?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541434495?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a>On the weekly charts, we can appreciate how the price broke above previous highs (and upper line of the descending pullback channel). I think we are poised for a retest of the all-time highs at around 1.1010 and possible extension to 1.1160 and 1.1350 on a medium-term approach (upper Bollinger bands and 127% extension).</p>
<p>On the daily charts, Friday ended with a doji/spinning top. We might have a pullback to round number 1.0800 and retest of the previous break zone (as first target), and even a further pullback to round number 1.0700 with the confluence of the middle line of the daily Bollinger bands and SMA34 (as a second target), before resuming the uptrend to the all-time highs.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>XAUUSD (GOLD)</strong></p>
<a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541436001?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541436001?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a>The daily charts show a consolidation week for Gold, leaving a spinning top on the weekly charts. I would expect a possible push to 1646.00 (127% extension). However, we have a rising wedge forming on daily and a break of 1610.00 would probably give way to a fall towards the confluence of SMA34 and middle line of the Bollinger bands around 1560.00 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.Yen Pairs Weekly Overview - July 22 closetag:jdfn.com,2011-07-24:2203529:BlogPost:263192011-07-24T19:29:25.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p><strong>USDJPY</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413806?profile=original" target="_self"><img class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413806?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></img></a> The Dollar-Yen maintained its bearish tone last week, reaching the bottom line of a falling wedge and making a new low. In my opinion, there is still momentum to push further down to a 138.2% Fibonacci extension on the previous swing low, or even attempt to retest the level of the last spike down near round number 76.00 and the 161.8% extension.…</p>
<p><strong>USDJPY</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413806?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413806?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a>The Dollar-Yen maintained its bearish tone last week, reaching the bottom line of a falling wedge and making a new low. In my opinion, there is still momentum to push further down to a 138.2% Fibonacci extension on the previous swing low, or even attempt to retest the level of the last spike down near round number 76.00 and the 161.8% extension. A pull back to the upper line of the wedge would be the other alternative though, looking to reach the confluence of the middle line of the Bollinger bands and SMA34.</p>
<p>On the daily charts we can appreciate a steep descent which could easily break down in extension to 77.65/35, the bullish alternative here would be a break of the falling wedge and attempt to reach psychological number 80.00 which also coincides with the confluence of the middle line of the daily Bollinger bands and SMA34, and the center area of the descending channel.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>EURJPY</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413977?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413977?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a>Last week formed an inside candle after a pull back from the bottom line of the descending channel, ending just below the SMA34 and at about the center area of the channel’s range, after having reached a 138.2% extension on the former swing low during the previous week. The trend still looks bearish and we could expect a continuation towards the 161.8% extension at around 107.30 or at least to the bottom of the channel, at round number 109.00.</p>
<p>On the daily charts, Friday ended on a spinning top just below the confluence of the SMA200, middle line of the Bollinger bands and SMA34 pointing down. We might have another move down towards the previous lows (109.60/50) and if that level is broken, a further fall to the bottom of the descending channel near the 127% and 138.2% extensions on the previous swing low (107.40/106.50).</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>GBPJPY</strong></p>
<a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414079?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414079?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a>The Geppy looks sideways on the weekly charts, having reached the bottom of the range with a strong rejection on the previous week, and ending on a small inside doji last week. Although we still can have another attempt at breaking the lows (125.10/00) I would expect a pull back to the confluence of the SMA34 and middle line of the Bollinger bands and previous highs at around 130.80/131.00 before a continuation to the downside.<br />
<p>We have a doji on the daily charts after touching the middle line of the Bollinger bands and top of the descending channel, which should be confirmed for a fall back down to the previous lows near round number 125.00 as first target, then a possible 127%/138.2% extension towards the area between 123.30 and 122.70 as second step. On the bullish side, a break of the channel would bring us near round number 131.00 and the confluence of the SMA200 and SMA100.</p>Swiss Franc Weekly Overview - July 22 closetag:jdfn.com,2011-07-24:2203529:BlogPost:263182011-07-24T01:45:21.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p><strong>EURCHF</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541415269?profile=original" target="_self"></a><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541415488?profile=original" target="_self"><img class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541415488?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></img></a> <br></br></p>
<p>This was a bullish week for the Euro-Swissie, which bounced from the bottom line of the descending channel and ending on a strong rejection of round number 1.1900. We have a falling wedge forming and I would expect a further…</p>
<p><strong>EURCHF</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541415269?profile=original"></a><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541415488?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541415488?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a><br/></p>
<p>This was a bullish week for the Euro-Swissie, which bounced from the bottom line of the descending channel and ending on a strong rejection of round number 1.1900. We have a falling wedge forming and I would expect a further pullback to the 38.2% retracement level at around 1.2115/20 which is the top line of the wedge for a first target, with a break and continuation to the 50% retracement level at around 1.2335/50 near the middle line of the Bollinger bands on a second step and finally a break of the previous highs targeting the opposite trend line of the descending channel, in an area between 1.2700 and 1.2800.</p>
<p>The daily charts show a rejection on Friday at the middle line of the Bollinger bands and if the pin bar candle is confirmed I would expect a retest of the lows at round number 1.1400 and possibly an extension towards 1.1150/1.1050 before there is a turn back to the bullish side. Should we be bottoming out, some consolidation can occur with the pair ranging between 1.1400 and 1.1800.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>GBPCHF</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541454949?profile=original"></a><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541455083?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541455083?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a><br/></p>
<p>A steady fall saw a small pull back to about the middle of the descending channel last week on this pair, and my expectations are of a continuation in extension to the bottom line of the channel and 127% Fibonacci level at around 1.2315 / round number 1.2300 on a medium-term approach.</p>
<p>On the daily charts we can see a test and rejection from SMA34 and middle line of the Bollinger bands, ending Friday on a pin bar which if confirmed could bring the price to a retest of the lows around 1.3040 as first target, then an extension to the bottom line of the descending channel in an area between the 127% and 138.2% Fibonacci levels (1.2860/1.2790).</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>USDCHF</strong></p>
<a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541455237?profile=original"></a><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541458080?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541458080?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a><br/>
<p>Price made a double bottom after the steeper fall that started last February, ending at about the middle line of the descending channel. I doubt that the price would break further down psychological number 0.8000 but we should be on alert with this pair as it is still heavily bearish. My expectations are for a pull back to the 0.8930 level (roughly a 50% retracement on this long swing low) reaching the previously broken bottom line and resistance near the SMA34.</p>
<p>However, the Swissie might have another attempt to the downside towards the bottom line of the descending channel on the daily charts to test the 0.8000 level before any reversal. Should the psychological level break, we might be heading towards 0.7820 in extension.</p>Euro and Pound Weekly Overview - July 22 closetag:jdfn.com,2011-07-23:2203529:BlogPost:263172011-07-23T16:06:35.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p><strong>EURUSD</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413535?profile=original" target="_self"></a><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413741?profile=original" target="_self"><img class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413741?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></img></a> Still on a rising trend, last week the Euro-Dollar confirmed the previous week's pin bar, bouncing from the confluence of the three moving averages (34, 100 and 200) at a 50% fibonacci retracement from the swing high. I would be aiming the…</p>
<p><strong>EURUSD</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413535?profile=original"></a><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413741?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413741?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a>Still on a rising trend, last week the Euro-Dollar confirmed the previous week's pin bar, bouncing from the confluence of the three moving averages (34, 100 and 200) at a 50% fibonacci retracement from the swing high. I would be aiming the pair to reach the previous highs and upper Bollinger bands at around 1.4950 as first target, and expect an extension to a 127% if the double top is broken, to attain the top of the ascending channel and round number (1.5500/1.5520).</p>
<p>On the daily charts we are on a slight pullback forming a descending channel with price getting very near the top. A second attempt towards the lows around 1.3850 would be possible before resuming the uptrend, should the upper trend line hold or even form a double top at the previous highs around 1.4590. If this scenario plays out, a push through the lows down to a 127% extension and bottom line of the channel could be on the lines, but given that the overall trend is bullish we could also consider the formation of an inverted head and shoulders pattern with the neckline at the level of the previous highs and therefore the downmove wouldn't go much lower than the 50% or 38% retracements on the previous swing low (1.4218-1.4131). Price ended on Friday above the confluence of the 34 and 100 SMA which can hold for a continuation to the upside.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>GBPUSD</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413912?profile=original"></a><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541417447?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541417447?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a>Another bullish week for the Pound-Dollar, which evolves inside a consistent ascending channel and is presently between the falling SMA200 and flat SMAs 34 and 100, where the previous pull back reached the 61.8% Fibonacci level and bounced back to the upside. I would be looking for a continuation of the rising move towards the upper trend line of the channel and SMA200 level in the area between previous highs and channel top (1.6770/80 - round number 1.6900).</p>
<p>The descending channel that was formed by the recent pullback on daily charts was broken as well as the SMA100 and we might look for a retest of this break previous to a continuation towards an extension to round number 1.6500 or 1.6550/60 (Fibonacci levels 127% and 138.2%). Price ended on Friday above the three moving averages which are at present mostly flat, and we could expect some consolidation between the highs attained and the broken resistance at 1.6200 prior to resuming the uptrend.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>EURGBP</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541417561?profile=original"></a><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541434593?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541434593?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a>Definitely on the rise, the Euro-Pound pulled back from its previous week fall to the ascending trend line and confluence of SMAs 34 and 100. Price closed barely above the middle line of the Bollinger bands, at a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the previous swing high. I would expect a bullish continuation to at least the 50% of the move as a first target, which would bring us around 0.8900, and a retest of the highs near 0.9100 as a second step on a medium-term approach.</p>
<p>Price has been evolving sideways in an expanding channel and closed on Friday just above the SMA100 and still below the SMA34 and middle line of the Bollinger bands, which are presently at a 50% of the swing low. A break of this level would be needed to expect a continuation to the upside first to 0.8940/80-0.9000 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement and resistance area of early June highs and early July consolidation), then we might attempt a retest of the highs as expressed above.</p>CAD, Aussie and Gold Weekly Update - May 20 closetag:jdfn.com,2011-05-25:2203529:BlogPost:258852011-05-25T17:53:02.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p><strong>USDCAD</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414083?profile=original" target="_self"><img class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414083?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></img></a> The Loonie keeps on the rise and made new highs last week, reaching the middle line of the weekly Bollinger bands with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, while breaking the previous week highs and rising to the daily SMA100 from which it was mildly rejected. As of now, the price has broken that level and continues heading towards the daily SMA200…</p>
<p><strong>USDCAD</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414083?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414083?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a>The Loonie keeps on the rise and made new highs last week, reaching the middle line of the weekly Bollinger bands with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, while breaking the previous week highs and rising to the daily SMA100 from which it was mildly rejected. As of now, the price has broken that level and continues heading towards the daily SMA200 presently at 0.9900 and coinciding with the weekly SMA34. I would expect further rise in extension on the double swing high towards that level (0.9880/0.9920) from where we will probably have some initial rejection back down, but I strongly believe this pair is going to look for parity very soon.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>AUDUSD</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541456227?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541456227?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a>The Aussie ended last week on an inside candle, rising a little from its previous retracement to the 38.2% Fibonacci level. The price went back for a retest of the broken support at 1.0700/1.0680 and has since Monday headed back down again, making a new low at 1.0440 which seems well supported at the moment. We could be going further down to break the round number 1.0400 and reach the 50% weekly retracement at around 1.0370/60 which is also near the 138.2% daily extension of the previous swing low on the daily charts. If 1.0500 holds though, I would be targeting 1.0580/1.0600 round number and last week’s highs on the daily SMA34, then the confluence of SMA100 and SMA200 in the 1.0680/1.0700 area for another retest of the previously broken support.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>XAUUSD (GOLD)</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541456420?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541456420?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>Gold descent was contained at the 1470.00 level and ended last week again above the strong psychological level 1500.00, from where it has kept slowly ascending since Monday and is now trading at 1526.00. I would expect another attempt to reach the all-time highs (1570.00/80.00) and am targeting further upside towards 1620.00/1650.00 at the 138.2% and 161.8% daily extensions on the previous range of the swing low, and 127% weekly extension on the swing high. If the recent lows are broken, the bearish scenario would bring the price in extension to the 1430.00/1400.00 levels, at about the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on weekly charts.</p>Yen Pairs Weekly Update - May 20 closetag:jdfn.com,2011-05-25:2203529:BlogPost:260752011-05-25T17:03:19.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p><strong>USDJPY</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413651?profile=original" target="_self"><img class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413651?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></img></a></p>
<p>The Dollar-Yen has been slowly but steadily climbing along the last two weeks and reached a strong resistance area in the 38.2% and 50% daily Fibonacci retracement levels, with the confluence of both SMA34 and SMA100 and the SMA200 just above. On the weekly charts we have the middle line of the Bollinger bands and the SMA34 also in…</p>
<p><strong>USDJPY</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413651?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413651?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The Dollar-Yen has been slowly but steadily climbing along the last two weeks and reached a strong resistance area in the 38.2% and 50% daily Fibonacci retracement levels, with the confluence of both SMA34 and SMA100 and the SMA200 just above. On the weekly charts we have the middle line of the Bollinger bands and the SMA34 also in confluence, at the round number 82.00 (resistance area between 81.80 and 82.60). Price has continued its rising pattern since Monday and is presently trading above the round number, but a clean break of this level and resistance zone would be needed to think of further bullish targets.</p>
<p>Should the pair fail to break to the upside, we would be aiming for a retest of the lows at the round number 80.00/79.60 as a first step. On the other side, if price finally succeeds in its attempts, I would be targeting 83.00/83.30 and 61.8% daily Fibonacci retracement, and secondly a retest of the highs at 85.60.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>EURJPY</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413765?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413765?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The Euro-Yen had a bullish week forming a tweezer bottom pattern and performing a retracement to the 38.2% Fibonacci level and daily middle line of the Bollinger bands, from which price was rejected back towards the daily SMA100. This level was crossed to the downside and the pair made a quick dip to the SMA200 before turning back to the upside and is presently trading back at Friday close level, just below the middle line of the daily bands and SMA100. The 116.00/116.40 resistance area seems to be strong and we could have another attempt to break the daily SMA200 and weekly SMA34 soon. I think this pair will be stuck in the former 113.50/115.50 consolidation zone for a while, but if price succeeds at breaking the lows (113.40) we would be heading towards the extension levels 111.10/00 and 110.20/00.</p>
<p>If the weekly tweezers hold true, a bullish scenario would bring us to the weekly SMA100 at around 121.00 in the medium-term, but there are several intermediary resistance levels to cross at 117.00, 118.50 and 119.20 before reaching that target.</p>
<p> </p>
<strong>GBPJPY</strong><br />
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413853?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413853?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The Pound-Yen also had a bullish week and reached the middle line of the weekly Bollinger bands crossing the SMA34, while also reaching the middle line and SMA100 on the daily charts, trading above the SMA200 and performing a retracement to the 38.2% Fibonacci level where it closed on Friday. It has since Monday broken that level to the upside and reached the confluence of the daily SMA34 and SMA100.</p>
<p>I would expect that resistance to hold and a consolidation to take place between 133.30 and 131.30. A break down of the weekly tweezers would lead in extension to 128.30/40 as first target area and 127.70/50 on a second step. A bullish scenario could bring us to the round number 134.00 (133.70/134.00 resistance area and weekly 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level) and we have another area just above between 134.00 and 134.50 to be watched.</p>Swiss Franc Weekly Update - May 20 closetag:jdfn.com,2011-05-25:2203529:BlogPost:258842011-05-25T16:20:15.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p><strong>EURCHF</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413714?profile=original" target="_self"><img class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413714?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></img></a></p>
<p>The Euro-Swiss Franc reached our expected target and went below 1.2420 at the 161.8% daily extension, matching January and March lows. The level was broken and retested on Monday, and we are heading further down to our previous continuation targets of 1.2200 and 1.2100 (127% weekly extension and 138.2% extension at the bottom of the…</p>
<p><strong>EURCHF</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413714?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413714?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The Euro-Swiss Franc reached our expected target and went below 1.2420 at the 161.8% daily extension, matching January and March lows. The level was broken and retested on Monday, and we are heading further down to our previous continuation targets of 1.2200 and 1.2100 (127% weekly extension and 138.2% extension at the bottom of the descending channel). I think the direction is clearly bearish for this pair, and that we will have to wait the price to reach the channel boundaries to evaluate the possibility of a bullish pull-back or reversal. Price is presently attempting to break down the round number 1.2300.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>GBPCHF</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413779?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413779?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The Pound-Swiss Franc stayed roughly inside the same range as the two previous weeks (1.4530/1.4130) this time ending on an engulfing bearish candle but with a higher low, and since the beginning of this week the price has remained in a tight consolidation above the 1.4200 round number, between the middle line of the daily Bollinger bands and the lower band. We might be building a double bottom here, however I would vouch, with caution, for a continuation of the downside in extension to around 1.3830/00. Should the double bottom theory hold, we would be aiming to a 38.2% retracement on the daily swing low, at 1.4530.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>USDCHF</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414212?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414212?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The Swissie pulled back to the downside giving back all gains on previous week and closing at about the same price, below round number 0.8800 but above the middle line of the daily Bollinger bands. It is presently still trading inside the same tight range of last week, between 0.8760 and 0.8860. There is no clear direction yet for this pair, which has failed to show a strong recovery but neither seems to be wanting to go lower. I think we will need to wait for the price to break outside of this range and it could go either to the lows at 0.8550 or to the highs at 0.8950/0.9000. I would stay away of this pair for a while until it steps out of its undecision, or trade the small range for shorter-term positions.</p>Euro and Pound Weekly Update - May 20 closetag:jdfn.com,2011-05-25:2203529:BlogPost:259752011-05-25T13:03:47.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p><strong>EURUSD</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413963?profile=original" target="_self"><img class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413963?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></img></a></p>
<p>The Euro-Dollar made a new low last week barely 20 pips below and turned back to the bullish side almost recovering all the fall of the previous week and nearly reaching the 38.2% retracement on the weekly swing low. The daily extension level at 138.2% held the price which went back to around 1.4325, testing the broken level for a second…</p>
<p><strong>EURUSD</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413963?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413963?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The Euro-Dollar made a new low last week barely 20 pips below and turned back to the bullish side almost recovering all the fall of the previous week and nearly reaching the 38.2% retracement on the weekly swing low. The daily extension level at 138.2% held the price which went back to around 1.4325, testing the broken level for a second time. Since Monday this pair has crossed the daily SMA100 to the downside and is presently trading near the level of the support area at 1.4050/60. I would expect a continuation to reach the daily SMA200 and next key support area between 1.3860/20. On the weekly charts we could be heading further down towards the confluence of the SMA100 and 34 at the round number 1.3800, however the actual support level seems to be holding and is quite strong, being reinforced by the presence of the weekly SMA200 and the proximity of the middle line of the Bollinger bands. Should we turn back again to a bullish scenario, the first target would be the round number 1.4400 at a 38.2% weekly Fibonacci retracement and actual level of the daily SMA34, and secondly the resistance area between 1.4490 and 1.4520 which would also represent a 50% retracement on the weekly charts.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>GBPUSD</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414134?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414134?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>Last week was a ranging week for the Pound-Dollar which held and consolidated above the weekly middle line of the Bollinger bands and daily SMA100 at the level of the round number 1.6100, being contained by 1.6300 on the upside. Since Monday it has been trading below, making a new low near 1.6050 and presently retesting the break of the moving average. I would expect more downside for this pair, and am targeting the 138.2% daily Fibonacci extension at 1.5950 just above the 127% weekly extension at around 1.5940. Should the present levels keep holding above round number 1.6000 and break back through the SMA100, we would be heading towards SMA34 and weekly 38.2% retracement on the previous swing low, in the 1.6350/75 zone.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>EURGBP</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541419575?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541419575?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The Euro-Pound had a very volatile week which ended on an extremely long-wicked hammer candle after a run to 0.8840 which was strongly rejected back to the support at the SMA100 level, which is strong and backed up by January 2011 double-toppish highs. The price hasn’t been yet able since Monday to break further down but is still attempting to cross this barrier, and I think it could reach the next support zone at the round number and daily SMA200 (0.8600/20), below the 138.2% daily extension on the previous swing low . Next target would be between 0.8560 and 0.8580 (near the 161.8% extension). I see this pair as very bearish, however if the actual levels hold, we could eventually see the price going for another retest of the resistance area at 0.8750/75.</p>CAD, Aussie and Gold Weekly Update - May 13 closetag:jdfn.com,2011-05-18:2203529:BlogPost:258632011-05-18T04:43:27.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p><strong>USDCAD</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413710?profile=original" target="_self"><img class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413710?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></img></a></p>
<p>The Loonie went below the expected bearish target and broke below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on the daily charts, while ending on a long-wicked spinning top on the weekly. The price recovered and bounced again to the upside crossing back through the daily SMA34 and making a new high but still rejected by the resistance level at…</p>
<p><strong>USDCAD</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413710?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413710?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The Loonie went below the expected bearish target and broke below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on the daily charts, while ending on a long-wicked spinning top on the weekly. The price recovered and bounced again to the upside crossing back through the daily SMA34 and making a new high but still rejected by the resistance level at 0.9720.</p>
<p>The level was finally broken on Monday and price is now in the process of retesting the break, and trading below the SMA100. It would seem the bullish impulse is weakening a little but the pair might gather again some force to make a second attempt to reach the round number 0.9800. I would personally favor a fall back to 0.9620/00 and the middle line of the bands in confluence with the SMA34, but we have another support line at 0.9660 which can be tough.</p>
<p>If the SMA100 is broken and round number 0.9800 is reached and also crossed, the next step would be the resistance area at 0.9840/60. On a medium term approach, the price could climb to the next levels at 0.9900/10 (daily SMA200) and 0.9950/70 as the second bullish target.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>AUDUSD</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413884?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541413884?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The Aussie did a retracement to the 61.8% Fibonacci level on the previous swing low, and then gave back all those gains the rest of the week, making a new low around 1.0520. This week started with the price going back to the upside for a retest of the broken SMA34, but the overall tone is bearish in my opinion and we could see further descent towards 1.0420/00, 1.0360 and 1.0250/00 over the next weeks. There is also a strong support area between 1.0270 and 1.0210.</p>
<p>We are presently hovering above a strong support though, and a bullish alternative would bring us back for a retest of the all-time highs but if this occurs, it will be done after some accumulation in the 1.0500/1.0850 range.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>XAUUSD (GOLD)</strong></p>
<a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541418765?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541418765?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a><br/>
<p>Gold ended last week on an inside weekly doji and exhibited a continuation of the ranging move on daily charts that it had started at the end of the previous week. Consolidation after a huge engulfing candle. Price has held above the SMA34 but has been slightly drifting lower since Sunday open. I would expect a continuation to the downside and 50% retracement based on the weekly swing high, as first step, then a continuation to the confluence of the middle line of the Bllinger bands and the SMA34 above which we have some good support between 1450.00 and 1420.00. A projection of the previous daily swing low (flagpole) would bring us lower to around 1400.00/1390.00 and the SMA200.</p>Yen Pairs Weekly Update - May 13 closetag:jdfn.com,2011-05-18:2203529:BlogPost:260542011-05-18T01:37:25.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p><strong>USDJPY</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541433359?profile=original" target="_self"><img class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541433359?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></img></a></p>
<p>The Dollar-Yen climbed again to 81.00 as we had expected, nearly reaching the middle line of the daily Bollinger bands. On weekly charts we can appreciate a very small inside doji candle, and markets were mostly consolidating although in a slightly rising move. Price has broken last week’s resistance level 81.30 as to now, reaching the…</p>
<p><strong>USDJPY</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541433359?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541433359?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The Dollar-Yen climbed again to 81.00 as we had expected, nearly reaching the middle line of the daily Bollinger bands. On weekly charts we can appreciate a very small inside doji candle, and markets were mostly consolidating although in a slightly rising move. Price has broken last week’s resistance level 81.30 as to now, reaching the confluence of the three moving averages (presently close to 82.00) and momentarily retesting the break. If this level holds as support, we would be aiming to reach 81.90 which if broken would lead us to the next level at 82.60 (50% retracement on the weekly swing low and confluence of middle line of Bollinger bands and SMA34). If price breaks down the support, we would be targeting a retest of the lows at 79.60/50 as first target, and on a medium term view, an extension to 78.30 or round number 78.00 (138.2% daily and 127% weekly levels respectively).</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>EURJPY</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541433599?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541433599?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The Euro-Yen failed to retest the upside break and continued its fall towards our targeted level 114.00 and beyond, ending on Friday above the 127% extension on the previous daily swing low, quite close to the SMA200 and 138.2% extension, while sitting above the weekly SMA34. A bounce from those levels was to expect and indeed occurred early this week, and price is now back again above the daily SMA100 and aiming in the direction of the middle line of the bands at around 117.80/118.00. There is a resistance zone between 116.40 and 117.00 which might offer some struggle but I think price can go further up if the actual support range between 115.90 and 115.60 holds.</p>
<p> </p>
<strong>GBPJPY</strong><br />
<a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541437789?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541437789?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a><br />
<p>The Geppy went back bullish until last Wednesday, reaching above our conservative targets with a quick spike to 134.00 which was strongly rejected from the daily middle line of the bands. The price pierced last week’s lows making a new low at 130.25 and closed barely below the broken support line and furthering the break of the SMA200. On the weekly charts we can see it extended to the 138.2% level from the previous swing low and remained below the SMA34. It has been recovering since Sunday open and is now trading again above the daily SMA200, but the tone seems back to the bearish zone now and I would expect a fall to the 138.2% daily extension or at least to the round number 129.00. The alternative scenario that I see is a rangebound move between the 133.00 and 131.00 levels.</p>Swiss Franc Weekly Update - May 13 closetag:jdfn.com,2011-05-17:2203529:BlogPost:261522011-05-17T17:34:05.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p><strong>EURCHF</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414781?profile=original" target="_self"><img class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414781?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></img></a></p>
<p>Price barely made a new low but turned back and spent all last week consolidating inside the lower bottom range of the previous weekly bearish candle, and ending on a hammer.</p>
<p>On the daily charts the 138.2% Fibonacci extension level was reached and the pair bounced back from a tweezer bottom on Tuesday, almost reaching the recently…</p>
<p><strong>EURCHF</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414781?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414781?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>Price barely made a new low but turned back and spent all last week consolidating inside the lower bottom range of the previous weekly bearish candle, and ending on a hammer.</p>
<p>On the daily charts the 138.2% Fibonacci extension level was reached and the pair bounced back from a tweezer bottom on Tuesday, almost reaching the recently broken support level. This week has started turning again to the downside, and I would expect a break of last week’s lows to reach our former targets at support levels 1.2420 (161.8% daily extension), 1.2200 and 1.2100 (127% weekly extension and 138.2% extension at the bottom of the channel).</p>
<p>On the bullish side, there is still a possibility for price to attempt a retest of the break at 1.2700/20, a move which might continue to 1.2790/1.2800 (daily SMA34).</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>GBPCHF</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414968?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414968?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>An inside candle week, tight and mildly ascending range for the Pound-CHF which stills tries to break last week highs as of now, however pointing back to the lows. 1.4520/50 is a strong resistance area and I would favor a break down and extension to 1.3900/1.3800 (weekly and daily 127% levels respectively) unless we get a double bottom at around 1.4100. If so, a bounce back towards actual levels would be the first target to the upside, with further possible push to the 50% retracement level at 1.4650, and 1.4780/1.4800 as third target, near the weekly middle line of the Bollinger bands.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>USDCHF</strong></p>
<a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541415045?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541415045?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a><br />
<p>The Swissie reached our last week’s target at 0.8925 and seems to be slowly recovering, although this week has started with a retest of the broken level at the round number 0.8800. I keep watching the other bullish targets: the 61.8% Fibonacci level at around 0.9050, 0.9260 at the daily SMA100 and 0.9345/50 at the previous daily highs. At present the price is hovering above the round number support and I don’t think it should go lower than that but beware of a break below which could bring us back again to a retest of the lows near 0.8550.</p>Euro and Pound Weekly Update - May 13 closetag:jdfn.com,2011-05-17:2203529:BlogPost:260532011-05-17T16:37:39.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p><strong>EURUSD</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541417362?profile=original" target="_self"><img class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541417362?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></img></a></p>
<p>The Euro-Dollar kept trading lower as expected last week, breaking below its previous weekly lows and nearly reaching the SMA200 level, while on daily charts we can appreciate an extension of its swing low to the 138.2% Fibonacci level, closing above the round number 1.4100 at the end of the week.</p>
<p>Since Sunday open, there has been…</p>
<p><strong>EURUSD</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541417362?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541417362?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The Euro-Dollar kept trading lower as expected last week, breaking below its previous weekly lows and nearly reaching the SMA200 level, while on daily charts we can appreciate an extension of its swing low to the 138.2% Fibonacci level, closing above the round number 1.4100 at the end of the week.</p>
<p>Since Sunday open, there has been some struggle at the 1.4050 support and price retraced half of last week’s move, however the market looks still bearish and I would expect a further fall to the 161.8% daily extension at around 1.3940 as first target, and secondly a test of support at 1.3850/60 which also coincides with the 138.2% bottom extension on the previous weekly swing high range. Should we bounce back to the upside, I would be targeting the confluence of the daily SMA34 and middle line of the Bollinger bands at around 1.4480/1.4500.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>GBPUSD</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541417398?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541417398?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The Pound Dollar has exhibited a similar behaviour to that of the EURUSD and gave back all its gains in regard to its previous weekly swing high, reaching near the middle line of the Bollinger bands. On daily the price fell towards the 161.8.% extension on the swing low, quite close to the SMA100 level, under which it is presently trading and which seems to be holding well as resistance. We are still aiming to reach level 1.6000, where the daily SMA200 is now lying, and from which we can expect later on a bounce back for a retest of the actual level, should it be broken. A second bullish target could be at around 1.6360 on the daily SMA34 and near the 38.2% retracement on the downwards weekly move.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>EURGBP</strong></p>
<a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541417632?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541417632?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a><br />
<p>The Euro-Pound fell a little bit more as expected, almost reaching the 127% Fibonacci extension on the daily swing low. However and despite a huge bearish engulfing candle it spent the last two days of the week inside its range, a move that has continued unchanged since Sunday open. Price is presently trying to break the resistance level at around 0.8740 and weekly moving averages are turning to the upside, 0.8670 seems a good support and we could see a turn back to the highs or at least to 0.8830 where we have a confluence of the daily SMA34 and middle line of the Bollinger bands. If price succeeds in breaking the support, we would be aiming towards the 161.8% extension level at around 0.8580/60, also coinciding with the weekly 61.8% retracement and confluence of the SMA34 and middle line of the bands.</p>CAD, Aussie and Gold Weekly Update - May 06 closetag:jdfn.com,2011-05-10:2203529:BlogPost:257252011-05-10T17:47:49.000ZCaroline Carlinhttps://jdfn.com/profile/CarolineCarlin
<p><strong>USDCAD</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414202?profile=original" target="_self"><img class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414202?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></img></a></p>
<p>The daily double bottom was confirmed by a triple bottom formation on the weekly charts ending with a huge bullish engulfing candle. Price went well above our conservative targeted level at 0.9600, reaching 0.9710 and closing above the daily SMA34 with a long-legged doji with a 50% retracement on the previous weekly swing low. If this…</p>
<p><strong>USDCAD</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414202?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541414202?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The daily double bottom was confirmed by a triple bottom formation on the weekly charts ending with a huge bullish engulfing candle. Price went well above our conservative targeted level at 0.9600, reaching 0.9710 and closing above the daily SMA34 with a long-legged doji with a 50% retracement on the previous weekly swing low. If this resistance at 0.9720 holds, we would be back towards the middle line of the daily Bollinger bands for a retest of the broken resistance at around 0.9570, then next target would be a retest of the lows around 0.9450.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541417237?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541417237?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" height="403" width="694"/></a>On the other side, here’s a bullish scenario that could come into play shortly provided the resistance at 0.9720 is clearly broken: a projection of the head of the inverted Head and Shoulders pattern to 0.9880/90 (conservatively targeting the round number 0.9800), with potential for a retest of the next resistance zone at 0.9955/75.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>AUDUSD</strong></p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541417602?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541417602?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a></p>
<p>The Aussie was heavily bearish last week and retraced to the 38.2% Fibonacci level, finally closing at the level of the previous week’s lows. All our targets were hit, and the support area at 1.0580 was pierced, however price came back to the upside recovering all its Thursday losses, making a 50% retracement on the whole week’s move and finally closing below the 38.2% Fibonacci level, exactly at the middle line of the daily Bollinger bands.</p>
<p>Price has been slowly ascending since then and forming a pennant on the 4-hour charts. I would favor a continuation of the bullish trend for a second attempt at early May double-topped highs, and a projection of Friday’s swing high from the support found at the round level 1.0700/10 would bring us to around 1.0970/80 in the following days. The pair is now in a slowly ascending accumulation phase which has been contained by the 1.0800/20 level (hourly SMA200). An extension on the previous 4-hour swing high would give us a target around 1.0900/10 at the upper band levels and 138.2% Fibonacci. There is some additional resistance at the 127% level (1.0875/80).</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>XAUUSD (GOLD)</strong></p>
<a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541434584?profile=original"><img width="750" class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/2541434584?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"/></a><br />
<p>Gold effectively retraced and retested the break of the upper line of the weekly wedge, at 1500.00/1480.00 as expected, making a new low at around 1460.00. I think the behaviour of this pair will be quite similar to that of the AUDUSD, where we could expect another attempt at the highs(1580.00) before an eventual continuation of a bearish correction. The 50% upwards retracement has already been reached but we are presently trading below the resistance zone.</p>
<p>Should we fail to clearly cross back the 1500.00 psychological level (at the moment price is hovering a dozen pips above and below with little momentum), we could expect a further retracement to the 138.2% extension on this bearish swing, towards 1420.00.</p>