Forex4you's Blog (405)

EUR/USD: bullish break

Yesterday's narrow sideways range eventually led to a break out which broke through the down-sloping trend-line. There is an immediate upside target of 1.3480 but eventually also 1.3515 – the target from the breakout. If the pair falls back down, however, it will probably re-touch the 1.3220 lows, but the thick clusters of support underneath are likely to inhibit further downside.…

EUR/USD: moving sideways

Eurodollar continues to consolidate in a narrowing sideways pattern as noted yesterday. It is supported by the 200-4hr MA, a trend-line and the neckline of a possible H&S pattern. The greater trend is still up and a break above the 1.3395 highs would indicate a recovery higher, targeting the 1.3480 level. A lot of support underpins price including the 50-day MA at 1.3270, and so it would require a move below this and the trend-line at…

EUR/USD: bounce possible

The EUR/USD pair has fallen to a cluster of strong support including the 200-4hour moving average, a trend-line and a neckline for a possible H&S top. The downward pressure seems to have eased today and there is a reversal pattern breaking on the hourly chart which could signal a bounce back up; with a break above 1.3395 targeting 1.3470. Alternatively any further downside could break through the neckline of a potential head and shoulders…

EUR/USD: bearish break

The break below the key 1.3355 level has occurred this morning and could see eurodollar run down to 1.3250 initially, and then eventually possibly even key support at 1.2950. Much depends on whether today remains bearish into the close – if it does then this could be the start of a major leg down, otherwise we may yet see a recovery, although the trend-line at 1.3410 limits near-term upside potential.…

EUR/USD: possible bearish break

Eurodollar has fallen back down and touched support from the trend-line today. There is strong downwards pressure and it is attempting to break lower. A move below 1.3355 would be a strong bearish continuation sign with the 50-day MA at 1.3260 providing the next downside target. Alternatively there is still a possibility of a bounce targeting the 1.3640s, with a break above resistance clustered at 1.3460 adding confirmation.…

EUR/USD: rebound continues

Eurodollar's bounce from the trend-line and the monthly pivot has continued higher and reached 1.3470. Today we have had another thrust higher and it will probably continue. There is an inverted H&S on the hourly chart with a price target at 1.3500 and another target is 1.3640. Alternatively a break below 1.3355 lows would give bearish confirmation that the trend lower was resuming.…

EUR/USD: consolidating on support

The pair continues to consolidate on top of support from the trend-line and the monthly pivot. Activity today has been mainly bearish although it is now turning up, and a break above 1.3470 could trigger further upside to perhaps the 1.3715 highs. Alternatively a decisive break of the 1.3350 lows would indicate the trend-line had given way with a new target down at support at 1.2950.…

EUR/USD: consolidation in downtrend

Eurodollar has fallen to a natural support and resistance level and it has started to form a sideways consolidation. There is a possibility it could be a flag and if so then the flag pole extrapolated down could give a target at 1.3240.The H&S top at the highs could also yield a target at a similar level. Alternatively, given the pair is now edging up, if it continues it could reach 1.3470 first and then possibly 1.3500 where…

EUR/USD: possible uptrend resumption

The EUR/USD pair has spiked higher this morning and will probably continue. An initial target would be at 1.3655 followed by the 1.3715 highs. The move may be signalling a resumption of the up-trend, however, it is a little early to say, as much volatility is expected latter when the ECB releases its rate decision at 12.45 GMT. Alternatively a break of the neck-line at around 1.3470 could signal an extension of the bearish…

EUR/USD: technical update

EUR/USD has weakened this morning and if it continues lower it will reach the key trend-line at 1.3480-5 and begin to resemble a head and shoulders pattern, with a neckline at 1.3475 and downside target at 1.3230. The overall trend is still up, however, and the current bear move has retraced 61.8% of the previous rally so there is also the possibility of a rally higher from here, with an upside target at 1.3655.…

EUR/USD: correction extends

The pull-back in eurodollar continues and given there is no sign of reversal – in fact the down-move looks like it is strengthening – it will probably extend. A possible downside target would be the monthly pivot situated at 1.3390, which is further bolstered by a support and resistance line at the same level. Overall the mid-term trend remains up, however, and will probably resume eventually.…

EUR/USD: rallying

The EUR/USD pair is in a strong uptrend which will probably continue higher, with the next target at 1.3785 where the monthly pivot and the target from the trend-line break are situated. The 1.3540 trough low is key and would have to be breached for confirmation of more bearish action with a major support level situated at 1.3400.…

EUR/USD: consolidation in uptrend

The EUR/USD pair has formed another sideways consolidation. Given the overall trend is up it will probably break higher. The next target is at 1.3625, followed by 1.3750 where resistance from a grouping of pivots kicks in. The cluster of lines at 1.3530 underpin current price action and any move down will probably find support there too.…

EUR/USD: breakout higher

The EUR/USD pair has broken out above the sideways consolidation it was in yesterday and continued moving up strongly. Initially it will probably reach 1.3525 where there is tough resistance and then probably 1.3625, which is the extrapolation from the trend-line break. Overall the uptrend remains intact and higher prices are expected.…

EUR/USD: temporary pull-back

Substantial resistance directly above price action from the 50, 100 and 200 monthly and weekly MA's at 1.3505, 1.3440 and 1.3525 respectively, could lead to a temporary pull-back. The weakness this morning will probably continue with a target at the top of the range at 1.3400. The bull trend will probably resume eventually, however, with an initial target of 1.3525 followed by 1.3850.…

EUR/USD: consolidating under resistance

The EUR/USD pair is consolidating after re-touching the 1.3400 highs. There is a lot of overhead resistance and it will probably fall temporarily with a target at the range lows at 1.3250. Eventually the bull-trend will probably re-assert with a decisive break above 1.3410 leading to a continuation up to 1.3490. There is substantial resistance from the 50-month and 200-week MA's around 1.3520, which could stall further…

EUR/USD: wave 5

The EUR/USD pair has corrected back to the 38.2% Fibonacci line and then bounced. It is possible the bounce could be an Elliot wave 5 which could re-touch the 1.3400 highs. A decisive break above 1.3325 would provide added confirmation and see a run up to the monthly pivot at 1.3356 and then 1.3400. Alternatively, a move back down to the 38.2% line at 1.3255 is also possible if a range-bound consolidation unfolds.…

EUR/USD: meeting support

EUR/USD has fallen heavily to support and resistance in the1.3260s. It will probably fall further, with the nearby 1.3255 level as the next target down where the 38.2% Fibonacci line and the weekly pivot are clustered. This could be the Elliot wave 4 of the up-move and it will probably end soon with wave 5 retouching the 1.3400 highs, although the monthly pivot at 1.3356 provides an initial target higher.…

EUR/USD: consolidating in up-trend

Eurodollar has rallied up to tough resistance from an old trend-line and the 100 week and 100 month MA's situated at 1.3390 and 1.3415 respectively. It has since pulled back and started consolidating in a range. Overall the bullish trend is intact so a push above the highs and rally to 1.3500 is probable. Alternatively, a move below 1.3330 could see a sell-off down to 1.3270.…

EUR/USD: consolidation in uptrend

The EUR/USD rallied strongly yesterday. Today we have had some sideways activity. A decisive break above the range highs at 1.3282 would probably see another bullish leg first to the 1.3307 highs and then even higher to 1.3356, as a much higher eventual upside target is expected in the 1.39s. If the range lows at 1.3248 are broken a move lower could reach to perhaps the trend-line at 1.3170.…