Adam Horak's Blog

im looking for the greenback to gain against most majors into the afternoon.

The Jan US employment report is released at 13:30 GMT. Similar to consensus (-540k) and previous (524k), expect -525k, with the jobless rate jumping to 7.5% from 7.2% (its monthly average rise has been 0.3pp the past three months). We expect a number in-line with consensus to be overlooked by the dollar. However, if we take heed to the seasonal factor we could see the number come in better than expected as fewer workers were hired in the run up to the end of year, hence less workers to lay off… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on February 6, 2009 at 8:48am — No Comments

Durable goods Dec 24

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in November decreased $1.8 billion or 1.0 percent to $186.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the fourth consecutive monthly decrease and followed an 8.4 percent October decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.9 percent.

Shipments

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in November, down four consecutive months, decreased $5.3… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on December 24, 2008 at 8:41am — No Comments

weekly jobless claims Dec 24

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Dec. 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 554,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 575,000. The 4-week moving average was 543,750, an increase of 2,750 from the previous week's revised average of 541,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.3 percent for the week ending Dec. 6, unchanged… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on December 24, 2008 at 8:37am — No Comments

why the EUR fall after 8:45am today

The European Central Bank rewidened its interest rate corridor on Thursday and cut the return it gives banks for holding cash at the ECB as it bids to prod interbank money markets back to normality.

In a statement after its mid-month non-rate policy meeting, the bank's governing council also said it would carry on lending commercial banks as much money as they wanted for as long as necessary.

"As of 21 January, the rate of the marginal lending facility will be increased… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on December 18, 2008 at 12:45pm — No Comments

Nov Nonfarm payroll

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: NOVEMBER 2008

Nonfarm payroll employment fell sharply (-533,000) in November, and

the unemployment rate rose from 6.5 to 6.7 percent, the Bureau of Labor

Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. November's

drop in payroll employment followed declines of 403,000 in September and

320,000 in October, as revised. Job losses were large and widespread

across the major industry sectors in… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on December 5, 2008 at 8:50am — No Comments

weekly jobless claims Dec 4

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Nov. 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 509,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 530,000. The 4-week moving average was 524,500, an increase of 6,250 from the previous week's revised average of 518,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.1 percent for the week ending Nov. 22, an… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on December 4, 2008 at 8:47am — No Comments

ISM Non Manufacturing

November 2008 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) at 37.3%

DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on December 3, 2008 at 10:09am — No Comments

US productivity 3rd quarter 2008

PRODUCTIVITY AND COSTS

Third Quarter 2008, revised

The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor today

reported revised productivity data--as measured by output per hour of all

persons--for the third quarter of 2008. The seasonally adjusted annual rates

of productivity growth in the third quarter were:

1.5 percent in the business sector and

1.3 percent in the nonfarm business sector.

In both sectors,… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on December 3, 2008 at 9:03am — No Comments

Nov ADP

ADP NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT REPORT SHOWS U.S.

EMPLOYMENT DECREASED BY 250,000 PRIVATE SECTOR JOBS IN

NOVEMBER

Largest decrease in private sector employment since November of 2002

private sector employment decreased by 250,000 in November.

The ADP National Employment Report, created by ADP® Employer Services, a division

of Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP), is based on actual payroll data and measures the change in total nonfarm private

employment each… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on December 3, 2008 at 8:52am — No Comments

economic outlook

The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits surged last week to their highest level in 16 years, Labor Department data showed on Thursday, as a harsh economic environment forces employers to cut back on hiring.

Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits were a seasonally adjusted 542,000 in the week ended November 15 from a revised 515,000 the previous week. That was higher than analysts' forecast for a reading of 505,000 new… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on November 20, 2008 at 10:47am — No Comments

Nov 19 CPI

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: OCTOBER 2008

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased

1.0 percent in October, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor

Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The October

level of 216.573 (1982-84=100) was 3.7 percent higher than in October

2007.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers

(CPI-W) decreased 1.3 percent in October, prior to seasonal… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on November 19, 2008 at 8:50am — No Comments

Nov PPI

Producer Price Indexes - October 2008

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods fell 2.8 percent in October, seasonally

adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This

decrease followed a 0.4-percent decline in September and a 0.9-percent fall in August. At the

earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods moved

down 3.9 percent in October after declining 1.2 percent in… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on November 18, 2008 at 8:57am — No Comments

weekly jobless claims 10/13/08

First-time filings for state unemployment benefits hit their highest level since September 2001, rising to 516,000 in the latest week, a further sign of how the U.S. labor market's are struggling, the Labor Department.

For the week ended Nov. 8, initial claims climbed by 32,000 from last week's revised figure of 484,000.

The four-week average of new claims -- which measures the underlying trend in joblessness -- also hit a historic high, shooting up to 491,000. That's the highest… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on November 13, 2008 at 12:49pm — No Comments

Update from the US Department of the Treasury

Remarks by Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr. on Financial Rescue Package and Economic Update

Washington - Good morning. I will provide an update on the state of the financial system, our economy, and our strategy for continued implementation of the financial rescue package.

Current State of Global Financial System

The actions taken by Treasury, the Federal Reserve and the FDIC in October have clearly helped stabilize our financial system. Before we acted, we were… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on November 12, 2008 at 1:31pm — No Comments

Ruble and the Dollar

Oil and Gold continue there downward spiral today, dragging commodity based currencies down with them; but none may be more negatively affected then the Russian Ruble. Russia is a major exporter of oil and other commodities and is now entrenched in the worst financial turmoil since its 1998 crisis. Local equity prices have tumbled 70% and investors have pulled billions of dollars out of the country as panic and fear have gripped the nation; over concerns with domestic and political risk, as… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on November 11, 2008 at 2:51pm — No Comments

FED cuts rates by 50 basis points.

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 1 percent.

The pace of economic activity appears to have slowed markedly, owing importantly to a decline in consumer expenditures. Business equipment spending and industrial production have weakened in recent months, and slowing economic activity in many foreign economies is damping the prospects for U.S. exports. Moreover, the intensification of financial market turmoil… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on October 29, 2008 at 2:38pm — No Comments

weekly unemployment report Oct 18

In the week ending Oct. 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 478,000, an increase of 15,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 463,000. It is estimated that the effects of Hurricane Ike in Texas added approximately 12,000 claims to the total. The 4-week moving average was 480,250, a decrease of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average of 484,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.8 percent for the week ending… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on October 23, 2008 at 12:51pm — No Comments

understanding the CPI

Brief Explanation of the CPI

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in

prices over time of goods and services purchased by households. The

Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPIs for two population groups: (1)

the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which covers

households of wage earners and clerical workers that comprise

approximately 32 percent of the total population and (2) the CPI for All

Urban… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on October 17, 2008 at 1:47pm — No Comments

weekly unemployment report Oct 11

In the week ending Oct. 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 461,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 477,000. It is estimated that the effects of Hurricane Ike in Texas added approximately 12,000 claims to the total. The 4-week moving average was 483,250, an increase of 750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 482,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.8 percent for the week ending… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on October 16, 2008 at 9:48am — No Comments

weekly unemployment report

In the week ending Oct. 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 478,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 498,000. It is estimated that the effects of Hurricane Gustav in Louisiana and the effects of Hurricane Ike in Texas added approximately 17,000 claims to the total. The 4-week moving average was 482,500, an increase of 8,250 from the previous week's revised average of 474,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on October 9, 2008 at 8:51am — No Comments

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