Jack Lott's Blog

JDfn Daily Digest - August 29, 2008

Real consumer spending fell 0.4% in July. This is the biggest drop since June 2004. Nominal spending rose 0.2%. Personal income fell 0.7% in July, the biggest drop since August 2005. Real disposable incomes fell 1.7% in July. This is the second straight large monthly drop in the wake of the government stimulus payments. As anticipated U.S. July PCE core inflation was up 0.3%.

Consumer sentiment improved in August. The index rose to 63 in late August, compared with 61.7 earlier in the… Continue

Added by Jack Lott on August 29, 2008 at 10:15am — No Comments

JDfn Daily Digest - August 28, 2008

Gross domestic product increased at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the April-June quarter. The revised reading was much better than the government's initial estimate of a 1.9 percent pace and exceeded economists' expectations for a 2.7 percent growth rate.

The Labor Department reported that applications for unemployment benefits dropped to a seasonally adjusted 425,000, down 10,000 from the previous week. That was a slightly better figure than the 427,000 analysts… Continue

Added by Jack Lott on August 28, 2008 at 10:36am — No Comments

JDfn Daily Digest - August 27, 2008

The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta came down squarely on the side of Fed Chief Ben Bernanke, by arguing that inflationary pressures should ease in coming months. Dennis Lockhart said in a speech at Georgia State University's business school that although recent measures of inflation are higher than he would like to see, he expects “CPI inflation will peak near the July level of 5.6%.”

The Commerce Department says orders for durable goods rose 1.3 percent last month,… Continue

Added by Jack Lott on August 27, 2008 at 10:16am — No Comments

JDfn Daily Digest - August 26, 2008

The August consumer confidence index rose to 56.9 from a July reading of 51.9. Economists expected an August reading of 53. The percentage of consumers saying jobs are "hard to get" increased to 32% in August from 30.2% in July. Meanwhile, the percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to worsen over the next six months fell to 25.8% from 32.4%.

U.S. home sales rose 2.4% in July, but large downward revisions to prior months showed a weaker home sales market than previously… Continue

Added by Jack Lott on August 26, 2008 at 10:32am — No Comments

JDfn Daily Digest - August 25, 2008

The National Association of Realtors reported that resales of U.S. single-family homes and condos rose 3.1% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.0 million; economists expected sales to rise to 4.91 million. Despite the increase in sales, the inventory of unsold homes on the market rose 3.9% to an 11.2 month supply.

The Lundberg Survey shows gas prices have dropped 15 cents a gallon in the last two weeks. The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline at self-serve… Continue

Added by Jack Lott on August 25, 2008 at 10:29am — No Comments

JDfn Daily Digest - August 22, 2008

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said recent developments in commodity prices and the dollar, combined with slow growth, should lead inflation to moderate this year and next year. Bernanke told policymakers and economists at the Fed's annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming that the recent decline in commodity prices and the increased stability of the dollar have been welcome trends.

Warren Buffett said the economy continues to be in a recession, by his definition, and will… Continue

Added by Jack Lott on August 22, 2008 at 10:13am — No Comments

JDfn Daily Digest - August 21, 2008

The Conference Board says its measure of the economy's health fell more than expected in July, pushed lower by declines in the stock market, drops in new building permits and rising unemployment. The forecast of future economic activity fell 0.7 percent, far short of the consensus estimate of a 0.2 percent decline.

The Labor Department reported that initial applications for jobless benefits dropped to 432,000, down by 13,000 from the previous week. It was a bigger improvement than… Continue

Added by Jack Lott on August 21, 2008 at 11:04am — No Comments

JDfn Daily Digest - August 20, 2008

The Mortgage Bankers Association said mortgage application volume fell last week to its lowest levels in more than six years. The fall in application volume is the latest sign of a struggling housing market.

For the first time in decades, the increasing cost of steel is forcing Toyota Motor Corp (TM) into considering raising prices in Japan without a model makeover. The speculation is Toyota may be forced to announce higher prices in Japan -- a move even Toyota acknowledges could be… Continue

Added by Jack Lott on August 20, 2008 at 9:30am — No Comments

JDfn Daily Digest - August 19, 2008

Richard Fisher, the president of the Dallas Federal Reserve, said the conventional wisdom that inflation may soon peak as oil prices drop and the economy slows may turn out to be wishful thinking. Fisher said the Fed should remain "poised" to hike rates if slowing growth fails to contain inflation pressure. Fisher said it was too early to tell the likely course of inflation.

According to the former IMF chief economist, Kenneth Rogoff, the worst of the global financial crisis is yet… Continue

Added by Jack Lott on August 19, 2008 at 10:00am — No Comments

JDfn Daily Digest - August 18, 2008

Fannie Mae (FNE) and Freddie Mac (FRE) fell in trading after Barron's said government officials don't expect the mortgage-finance companies to be able to raise the equity capital they need, potentially forcing a bailout by the U.S. Treasury. The companies have been battered by record delinquencies and rising losses amid the worst housing slump since the Great Depression.

The National Association of Home Builders said U.S. home builders were as gloomy in August as they've ever been… Continue

Added by Jack Lott on August 18, 2008 at 11:00am — No Comments

JDfn Daily Digest - August 15, 2008

The output of U.S. factories rose 0.4% in July, the best gain in 10 months. Overall, industrial production increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in July as expected, despite a 1.9% drop in output of utilities. Capacity utilization increased a tenth to 79.9% in July, still far below the level that would signal tight supply chains.

The Empire State Index said its monthly survey rose to 2.8 in August, up from negative 4.9 in July. Economists were expecting negative 2.8. The survey had… Continue

Added by Jack Lott on August 15, 2008 at 10:00am — No Comments

JDfn Daily Digest - August 14, 2008

First-time applications for state unemployment benefits fell by 10,000 in the latest week to 450,000, but the smoothed trend in new claims moved to its highest level in more than six years. Initial claims have increased recently by publicity about a new federal program of extended benefits that has encouraged more unemployed workers to file for claims under regular state programs.

U.S. consumer prices jumped a greater-than-expected 0.8% in July, marked by big increases in energy,… Continue

Added by Jack Lott on August 14, 2008 at 9:21am — No Comments

JDfn Daily Digest - August 13, 2008

U.S. import prices rose by 1.7% in July, mostly on prices for imported petroleum and natural gas. Prices were up 21.6% over the past 12 months, the largest 12-month increase in the history of the index. Excluding all fuels, import prices rose by 0.7% in July.

U.S. retail sales dropped 0.1% in July, as falling auto sales offset an increase in gasoline sales sparked by higher prices. Excluding the 2.4% decline in vehicle sales, seasonally adjusted retail sales rose 0.4% in July, the… Continue

Added by Jack Lott on August 13, 2008 at 10:51am — No Comments

JDfn Daily Digest - August 12, 2008

The Commerce Department said that the U.S. trade gap narrowed by 4.1% to $56.8 billion in June on record exports and a decline in non-oil imports. Exports increased 4% in June to a record $164.4 billion, the biggest gain in four years. Meanwhile, imports rose 1.8% to a record $221.2 billion, largely because of the record $117 price for a barrel of crude oil.

Chain-store sales for the week ended Aug. 9th rose 2.6% from the year-earlier period. On a week-over-week basis, sales dropped… Continue

Added by Jack Lott on August 12, 2008 at 9:01am — No Comments

JDfn Daily Digest - August 11, 2008

According to the Lundberg Survey, the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline at self-serve stations was $3.85 Friday, down almost 15 cents from two weeks ago. Mid-grade went for $3.98 and premium went for $4.10.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is taking a patient approach when it comes to the possibility of a second round of economic aid. Paulson says the $168 billion program of tax rebate checks that President Bush signed into law in February was the right size to help the… Continue

Added by Jack Lott on August 11, 2008 at 10:14am — No Comments

JDfn Daily Digest - August 7, 2008

The Labor Department reported that initial applications for unemployment insurance rose by a seasonally adjusted 7,000 to 455,000 for the week ending Aug. 2nd. The increase left claims at their highest level since late March 2002.

The European Central Bank and the Bank of England both left their benchmark interest rates unchanged as they ponder how best to steer their economies between the shoals of mounting inflation and slowing growth. European Central Bank President Jean- Claude… Continue

Added by Jack Lott on August 7, 2008 at 10:22am — No Comments

JDfn Daily Digest - August 6, 2008

There's lots of news centering on the U.S. housing situation today -

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly application survey, mortgage application volume rose 2.8 percent during the week ending Aug. 1st. The MBA's application index rose to 432.6 from 420.8 a week earlier, which was the lowest reading of the year.

According to Richard Syron, the chairman and CEO of Freddie Mac (FRE), U.S. house prices will fall by as much as 20 percent nationally and the… Continue

Added by Jack Lott on August 6, 2008 at 12:04pm — No Comments

JDfn Daily Digest - August 5, 2008

The Federal Open Market Committee kept its benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 2.0%. The decision was anticipated by traders and economists on Wall Street. In its statement, the Fed gave no sign that it plans to change policy in the foreseeable future. There was one dissent from Dallas Fed Richard Fisher, who wanted to hike rates.

Oil prices continue to fall, sinking as low as $118 a barrel on growing concerns that a U.S. economic slowdown tied to high energy costs are curbing… Continue

Added by Jack Lott on August 5, 2008 at 10:00am — No Comments

JDfn Daily Digest - August 4, 2008

Consumer spending dropped by 0.2 percent in June, after removing the effects of higher prices. This is the poorest showing since a similar drop in February. The higher prices reflect a big increase in gasoline prices and helped to drive an inflationary gauge tied to consumer spending up by 0.8 percent in June, the biggest increase since a one percent rise in February 1981. Personal incomes rose just 0.1% after a 1.8% surge in May.

The Commerce Department also reported that inflation… Continue

Added by Jack Lott on August 4, 2008 at 10:12am — No Comments

JDfn Daily Digest - August 1, 2008

Non-farm payrolls fell for the seventh straight month in July while the unemployment jumped to 5.7%, a four-year high. Payrolls fell by 51,000 in July, led by losses in manufacturing, construction, retail and temporary help. Since December, 463,000 jobs have been lost, the strongest signal that the economy is in a recession.

The Institute for Supply Management reported that U.S. manufacturing activity was flat in July. The ISM manufacturing index slipped from 50.2% in June to 50% in… Continue

Added by Jack Lott on August 1, 2008 at 11:00am — No Comments

Jack Lott's Blog – August 2008 Archive (20)