Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 09 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 09 2013

China's trade surplus reaches a four year high as exports rise signalling strength returning to the world’s second largest economy

Sunday evening's trading session sees a raft of information published from Japan, the final GDP figure is predicted to come in at 0.4%, with the final GDP price predicted to come in at -0.3%, bank lending should come in at 2% improvement. There is important inflation data published on Sunday regarding China's economy; the CPI is predicted to come in at 3.0% with PPI expected to be in at -1.5%. Monday sees Germany's trade balance published; expected in at €17.4bn positive, Germany's month on month industrial prediction is expected in at 0.8%. The Swiss unemployment rate is predicted to come in at 3.2%, with retail sales up 1.7%. Europe's Sentix index is published with the expectation of a print of 10.5. There are also various Eurogroup meetings held. Monday also sees the UK BoE governor Mark Carney deliver a speech as does a significant person from the FOMC, Mr Bullard. The UK RICS house price balance is expected in at 59% suggesting that 59% of surveyors questioned are witnessing higher house prices in the UK. Japan publishes data on manufacturing index activity, predicted to come in at 17.2, with tertiary activity expected to print at 0.3%. Later that evening Australia's leading confidence index, from the National Australia Bank, is published, the expectation is for a print of circa 5, which is similar to the previous month's print. Australia's home loans figure is expected to come in at 1.3%. The consumer confidence index for Japan is published, expected in at 44.2, up from 42.1 the previous month.
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FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-12-09 24h | EU. Eurogroup meeting
2013-12-09 11:00 GMT | EU. Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) (Oct)
2013-12-09 13:15 GMT | Canada. Housing Starts s.a (YoY) (Nov)
2013-12-09 21:45 GMT | New Zealand. Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-12-09 06:16 GMT | EUR/USD back in the red and below breakout point of 1.3708 ahead of European session
2013-12-09 04:29 GMT | Gold opens the week on a flat note; 1172 technical target looms
2013-12-09 03:45 GMT | GBP/USD pulling back after touching upside projected target at 1.6425 last week
2013-12-09 01:53 GMT | EUR/JPY off highs but nicely higher for session on “risk on” mood and sluggish Japanese data

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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.37212 LOW 1.36997 BID 1.37 ASK 1.37002 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 44:58



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EUR/USD is entering the retracement stage on the hourly chart however we see potential for further appreciation towards to our targets at 1.3730 (R2) and 1.3748 (R3) if the price manages to overcome key resistance measure at 1.3712 (R1). Downwards scenario: In terms of technical levels, risk of price depreciation is seen below the next support level at 1.3658 (S1). Loss here would suggest to monitor marks at 1.3640 (S2) and 1.3621 (S3) as possible intraday targets.

Resistance Levels: 1.3712, 1.3730, 1.3748
Support Levels: 1.3658, 1.3640, 1.3621

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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.63535 LOW 1.63227 BID 1.63504 ASK 1.63507 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 44:58



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Possible upwards formation is limited now to resistive measure at 1.6360 (R1). A break above it would suggest next intraday target at 1.6392 (R2) and if the price holds its momentum we can expect price increase towards to final resistance at 1.6423 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next challenge on the downside is seen at 1.6318 (S1). Breakthrough of this mark would open way for a downside expansion and could possibly trigger our initial targets at 1.6290 (S2) and 1.6266 (R3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 1.6360, 1.6392, 1.6423
Support Levels: 1.6318, 1.6290, 1.6266

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USDJPY :
HIGH 103.22 LOW 102.89 BID 103.037 ASK 103.039 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 44:58



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Immediate resistance at 103.13 (R1) remains in near-term focus, climb above this level might open way for a stronger move towards to next interim target at 103.29 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistive measure at 103.46 (R3) . Downwards scenario: Risk of market weakening is seen below the support level at 102.77 (S1). Loss here is required to allow further declines and expose our supportive barrier at 102.62 (S2) en route towards to final target for today at 102.46 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 103.13, 103.29, 103.46
Support Levels: 102.77, 102.62, 102.46

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )