Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 10 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 10 2013

ECOFIN meetings might affect Euro direction, whilst important USA economic data is published in the New York session

Tuesday sees the publication of China's industrial production figures, expected in at 10.2%, retail sales in China are predicted to rise by 13.2%, with fixed asset investment predicted to rise by 20.1% - year on year. In Europe both French and Italian Industrial production figures are published, both expected in at circa 0.2-0.3%. The UK's manufacturing production is expected to fall to 0.4% from the previous month's 1.1%. The UK's trade balance is expected to stay at circa £9.1 bn for the month. The UK's NIESR also publishes its latest data, suggesting that economic activity will be stable at circa 0.7%. In Europe the ECOFIN meetings will take place with Mario Draghi then holding court with a speech discussing the outcomes of the meetings in relation to any policy change, or additions. In the USA there is a raft of information published in the afternoon trading session; the NFIB small business index is published expected in at 92.7. JOLTS job openings are expected in at 3.96 million, with wholesale inventories in the USA expected to shrink to 0.3%. Later in the evening on Tuesday Australia's Westpac consumer confidence index is published, the expectation is for a figure similar to the previous month of 1.9%. Japan publishes its core machinery orders, expected in at 0.9%, up from the previous month's negative print. The corporation inflation number is also printed, expected in at 2.7% year on year. Equity index futures are looking insipid with regards to tomorrow's trading opportunities, the DJIA equity index future is up 0.05%, SPX future up 0.07%, NASDAQ up 0.07%. Looking towards the European open the STOXX future is up 0.34%, DAX up 0.35%, CAC up 0.08% and the FTSE future is up 0.22%. NYMEX WTI oil closed flat on the day on Monday at $97.34 per barrel, NYMEX nat gas closed the day up a significant 2.87% at $4.23 per therm. COMEX gold closed the day up 0.42% at $1234.20 per ounce with silver up 0.91% at $19.70 per ounce. The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is known, rose 0.1 percent to C$1.0627 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in Toronto after falling as much as 0.3 percent. It touched C$1.0708 on Dec. 6th, the weakest since May 2010. One loonie buys 94.10 U.S. cents.
http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-12-10 12:00 GMT | EU. ECB President Draghi's Speech
2013-12-10 15:00 GMT | UK. NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Nov)
2013-12-10 23:30 GMT | Australia. Westpac Consumer Confidence (Dec)
2013-12-10 23:50 GMT | Japan. Machinery Orders (YoY) (Oct)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-12-10 05:41 GMT | AUD/USD capped by 0.91/9120 offers cluster
2013-12-10 02:44 GMT | USD/JPY rolling over short-term as traders sell greenback; 103.54 remains key resistance
2013-12-10 02:16 GMT | EUR/USD bursts through 1.3750 barrier
2013-12-10 01:51 GMT | NZD/USD tilting towards 0.83 handle

---------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.37676 LOW 1.37341 BID 1.37498 ASK 1.37501 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 52:41



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Next barrier on the upside lie at 1.3768 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable our initial target at 1.3788 (R2) and any further gains would then be limited to last resistive structure at 1.3806 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, price pattern suggests bearish potential if the instrument manages to overcome next support level at 1.3728 (S1). Possible price regress could expose our initial targets at 1.3706 (S2) and 1.3684 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3768, 1.3788, 1.3806
Support Levels: 1.3728, 1.3706, 1.3684

-------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.64657 LOW 1.64186 BID 1.64491 ASK 1.64497 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 52:41



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: On the upside potential is seen for a break above the resistance at 1.6465 (R1). In such case we would suggest next target at 1.6493 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 1.6518 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, successful retest of our next support level at 1.6428 (S1) might provide sufficient momentum for the price acceleration towards to interim target at 1.6403 (S2). Final aim for today locates at 1.6382 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6465, 1.6493, 1.6518
Support Levels: 1.6428, 1.6403, 1.6382

------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 103.394 LOW 103.167 BID 103.341 ASK 103.344 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 52:41



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Upside risk aversion is seen above the next resistance level at 103.38 (R1). Appreciation above it might lead to the positive intraday bias formation towards to our next targets at 103.70 (R2) and 104.03 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible pull back development is limited now to the key supportive barrier at 102.92 (S1). Only loss here would be considered as a beginning of a retracement expansion. Our intraday targets locates at 102.68 (S2) and 102.47 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 103.38, 103.70, 104.03
Support Levels: 102.92, 102.68, 102.47

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )