Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 11 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 11 2013

Could USA oil supplies data cause WTI oil to flirt with the critical $100 a barrel level?

Wednesday sees the publication of USA oil supplies data, expected to print at -5.6 bn barrels, whilst the USA federal budget balance is expected to print at $154.6 bn, significantly worsening from the previous month's figure of $91.6 bn. In New Zealand the cash rate is announced, predicted to stay the same at 2.5%. The press conference, the rate statement and the policy statement will accompany the announcement of the base interest rate, finally later that evening the RBNZ governor Wheeler will conduct a conference. Later Australia will announce the change in unemployment and as a consequence publish the unemployment rate; expected to rise to 5.8% with circa 10K new jobs created. Looking towards equity index futures for Wednesday, the DJIA future is down 0.30%, SPX future down 0.33%, NASDAQ down 0.07%. STOXX is down 0.90%, DAX future down 0.84%, CAC down 1.02%, FTSE future down 0.36%. Commodities enjoyed an improvement through Tuesday's sessions. NYMEX WTI oil up 1.20% at $98.51 per barrel, NYMEX nat gas up 0.12% at $4.24 per therm, COMEX gold enjoyed a significant bounce, up 2.18% at $1261.10 per ounce with silver at $201.41 up 3.60% on the day. The euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.3761 late in New York after reaching $1.3795, the strongest since Oct. 29th. The six straight increases were the most since the seven days ending Dec. 18th, 2012. The common currency fell 0.3 percent to 141.53 yen after climbing to 142.17, the highest since October 2008. The dollar fell 0.4 percent to 102.85 yen. The U.S. Dollar Index, tracking the U.S. currency versus its 10 major counterparts, dropped 0.3 percent to 1,012.57, reaching the lowest level since Nov. 1st. The Swiss franc advanced by 0.2 percent to 1.22169 per euro in London's afternoon session after appreciating to 1.22065, the strongest level since May 2nd. The currency rose for a sixth day versus the dollar, gaining 0.4 percent to 88.66 centimes per dollar. The Swiss franc advanced to the strongest level in seven months against the euro as investors weighed improving economic data before the nation’s central bank meets this week.
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FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-12-11 12:00 GMT | USA. MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 6)
2013-12-11 15:00 GMT | USA. Treasury Sec Lew Speech
2013-12-11 19:00 GMT | USA. Monthly Budget Statement (Nov)
2013-12-11 20:00 GMT | New Zealand. Monetary Policy Statement

FOREX NEWS :
2013-12-11 06:10 GMT | EUR/USD reaches up to 1.3791 Fibo target and finally relents – for now
2013-12-11 03:48 GMT | AUD/USD stuck in the intraday doldrums after sluggish consumer confidence
2013-12-11 03:37 GMT | USD/JPY projected circa 106.00 by Q4 2014 - JPMorgan
2013-12-11 02:26 GMT | GBP/USD pausing after less-than-convincing breakout above 1.6442 previous resistance

EURUSD :
HIGH 1.37654 LOW 1.37468 BID 1.37578 ASK 1.37583 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 35:58



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: We expect consolidation development after the initial uptrend formation on the hourly chart frame though possible bullish penetration might face next challenge at 1.3775 (R1). Break here is required to establish further bullish pressure, targeting 1.3789 (R2) en route towards to last resistance for today at 1.3806 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further correction development is limited now to the session low - 1.3728 (S1). If the price manages to surpass it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3706 (S2) and 1.3684 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3775, 1.3789, 1.3806
Support Levels: 1.3728, 1.3706, 1.3684

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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.64579 LOW 1.64306 BID 1.64332 ASK 1.64335 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 35:58



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Market having failed to establish directional movement yesterday. Possible price strengthening might arise above the next resistance level at 1.6465 (R1). Our interim target holds at 1.6493 (R2) en route toward to our major aim at 1.6518 (R3). Downwards scenario: We would shift our short-term technical outlook to the negative if the price manage to penetrate below the key support at 1.6421 (S1). Loss here would suggest next initial targets at 1.6403 (S2) and 1.6382 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6465, 1.6493, 1.6518
Support Levels: 1.6421, 1.6403, 1.6382

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USDJPY :
HIGH 102.948 LOW 102.574 BID 102.732 ASK 102.734 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 35:58



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Pair has settled sideways formation on the hourly timeframe. However potential to move higher is seen above the resistance level at 102.93 (R1) mark. Loss here would suggest next intraday targets at 103.15 (R2) and 103.38 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support at 102.65 (S1) is liable to put more downward pressure on the instrument in the near-term perspective. As a result our supportive means at 102.47 (S2) and 102.30 (S3) might be triggered.

Resistance Levels: 102.93, 103.15, 103.38
Support Levels: 102.65, 102.47, 102.30

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )