Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 16 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 16 2013

All eyes on the FOMC meeting later this week, whilst Markit Economics PMIs also take centre stage

Sunday evening witnesses the publication of the Westpac consumer sentiment survey for New Zealand, the previous print came in at 115.4, the anticipation is for a similar result. The Japanese Tankan manufacturing index is published late Sunday evening, predictions are for a figure of 15, up from the previous month's figure of 12. The non-manufacturing Tankan index is also published, expected in at 16 from the previous print of 12. In the UK the Rightmove asking house price index is published, in the previous month asking prices fell by 2.4% therefore an improvement is expected. The Chinese HSBC flash manufacturing index is published late Sunday evening with the expectations that a small rise from 50.5 to 51 will be witnessed. Monday sees the publication of French flash PMI manufacturing and services data courtesy of Markit economics; both indices are expected to rise, manufacturing to 49.1, services to 48.9. Germany's twin PMI Markit gauges are also published; manufacturing predicted in at 53.1 services at 55.2. Finally Europe's are published with manufacturing predicted in at 51.9 with services at 51.5. Europe's trade balance published Monday is expected in at €15.2 bn, meanwhile the Bundesbank's tentative monthly survey is published. In the USA we witness the publication of the Empire State manufacturing survey, last month saw a surprise fall to -2.2%, a restoration of positive data is expected, with the print potentially coming in at 4.9. Flash Markit manufacturing PMI is published for the USA, expected in at 54.9, whilst industrial production is expected to rise by 0.6% from the previous month's figure of -0.1%. The ECB president Mario Draghi speaks mid-afternoon European time on Monday, the expectation is that he'll cover the subjects of: the strength of the euro, countries such as Ireland moving out of various bailout imposed austerity measures, interest rate reductions, European banking union and the potential for quantitative easing - through a bond buying programme.
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FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-12-16 13:58 GMT | USA. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Dec)Preliminar
2013-12-16 14:00 GMT | EU. ECB President Draghi's Speech
2013-12-16 14:00 GMT | USA. Net Long-Term TIC Flows (Oct)
2013-12-16 14:15 GMT | USA. US Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-12-13 22:14 GMT | Session recap: Dollar extends the swing ahead FOMC
2013-12-13 21:58 GMT | AUD/USD, stay bearish?
2013-12-13 21:42 GMT | EUR/CAD a sure sell?
2013-12-13 21:25 GMT | GBP/JPY ending the week on the back foot

EURUSD :
HIGH 1.3761 LOW 1.37287 BID 1.3756 ASK 1.37564 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 40:51



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Medium term bias tends to slide into the bearish side. Further market rise is limited now to the key resistive barrier at 1.3777 (R1), clearance here is required to enable next resistances at 1.3792 (R2) and last one at 1.3806 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market decline is seen below the next support level at 1.3737 (S1). Loss here might downgrade currency rate towards to the next supportive means at 1.3723 (S2) and 1.3706 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3777, 1.3792, 1.3806
Support Levels: 1.3737, 1.3723, 1.3706

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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.63095 LOW 1.62871 BID 1.63069 ASK 1.63075 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 40:51



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Even though instrument trades above the moving averages, it keeps immediate downside potential. Next hurdle is seen at 1.6314 (R1), break above it might extend gains towards to next targets at 1.6333 (R2) and 1.6353 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downside extension might face next supportive barrier at 1.6290 (S1). Clearance here is required to open the way towards to our initial support at 1.6268 (S2) and any further price regress would then be limited to final support at 1.6246 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6314, 1.6333, 1.6353
Support Levels: 1.6290, 1.6268, 1.6246

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USDJPY :
HIGH 103.291 LOW 102.643 BID 102.821 ASK 102.827 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 40:51



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Further uptrend evolvement is limited now to the local high at 102.92 (R1). Break here is required to enable higher targets at 103.08 (R2) and 103.28 (R3). Downwards scenario: Price regress below the support level at 102.65 (S1) would increase likelihood of failing towards to our key supportive barrier at 102.51 (S2) and any further market decline would then be targeting final support for today at 102.35 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 102.92, 103.08, 103.28
Support Levels: 102.65, 102.51, 102.35

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )