Non Farm Payroll Numbers Center Stage Take
USD:
The USD has had a roller coaster ride within a known range against both the EUR and GBP this week and Thursday proved no exception. Today the Non Farm Employment Change numbers will be brought forth and are expected to have a figure of minus -3K. The previous report produced a minus -11K outcome and investors are anxiously awaiting today’s results. The question that may play a critical role in trading sentiment is whether or not the U.S. actually was able to add jobs last month. There are a variety of estimates regarding this jobless report and the divergent views could have a big impact on the equity markets and thus the currency markets going into the weekend. The weekly Unemployment Claims figures were released yesterday and produced a better number of 434K compared to the estimate of 449k.
The USD remains within the grasp of a risk appetite scenario. The USD gained by the end of trading on Thursday, yet its range was tested. Wall Street produced mixed results also yesterday as the major indexes turned in what might be described as cautious trading as today’s critical jobless reports are waited on. A positive Non Farm Employment Change figure today could be a catalyst for Wall Street, which has had several negative shadows hovering above it. Some investors have felt that the equity market gained in value without fundamental criteria the past half year and because of this a large contingent of institutions are known to still be on the sidelines. Not only the sentiment of the marketplace is at stake with today’s reports, the American public will actually pay attention and could take their cues from ‘good news’. The question obviously becomes whether or not ‘good news’ will be found today. If the jobless numbers show stark improvement it could spur on greater risk appetite and create a volatile mix for the USD today. What investors will have to balance will be the reactions from Wall Street and the implications for the Federal Reserve regarding their outlooks upon today’s results. Traders should be prepared for a fast marketplace today.
EUR:
The EUR traded in range against the USD on Thursday, and this occurred as German Retail Sales data proved disappointing. The Retail Sales figures from Germany came in with a minus –1.1% result while it was expecting a gain of 0.4%. Also the broad European Retail Sales figures proved weaker. Today the German Industrial Production data is on the calendar and the estimate is looking for a gain of 1.1%. Also on schedule will be Trade Balance numbers from Germany and France and the broad European Unemployment Rate. European data continues to turn in less than stellar statistics and the strong value of the EUR is certainly not helping the continent. While the EUR has lost ground to the USD the past month it does remain at a rather high value against the greenback and this is not seen as favorable by Germany or France. The EUR has shown some weakness in recent trading and today’s economic data from the U.S. will leave it in a dollar centric mode. Like all other currencies the EUR will likely experience a swift day and see its range tested.
GBP:
The Sterling remained unchanged by the end of the day and this occurred as the Bank of England announced that they would stay the path regarding monetary policy. There were no changes made to interest rate policy. Investors thus digested the news events around the GBP without little change in sentiment. The Halifax HPI was released yesterday and came in with a gain of 1.0%, which was better than the estimate of 0.6%. The manner that the Bank of England handled their policy decision may reflect the rather conservative tone that will be undertaken from the government as a whole for the next couple of months as England marches towards national elections. The U.K. will see PPI Input and Output data today and it is expected to show that inflation remains rather meek. The Sterling like the other major currencies will be on a razor’s edge today and could see volatility because of the jobless numbers from the States.
JPY:
The JPY saw volatility in late trading on Thursday as politics provided a storm. The new Japanese Finance Minister said earlier in the day he would like to see the JPY weaken, but he was quickly rebuffed when the Japanese Prime Minister said government officials should not make public comments about the JPY. After that Finance Minister Kan said that market forces should dictate the value of the currencies. Thus we were once again served another dish from the Japanese government which has consistently shown disunity regarding economic policy. The JPY remains an interesting trading opportunity and one that has seen a well practiced range.
Can Gold Hit The $1,140 Price Level Yet Again? Will the GBP/USD Bullish Run Continue?
XAU/USD:
Since the commencement of trading 2 days ago in which I forecasted the possibility that “If Gold does indeed breach the $1,124.78 resistance level in the coming hours, then I feel that the possibility of a more dynamic bullish run may be on the cards”, we have seen instances when Gold has gone from strength to strength. Despite the commodity losing ground from late night trading on the 6th of January, I still feel that it is in a decent position. According the Gold 1 Hour Chart, the last several candles indicate that the bulls and the bears are battling it out. Moreover, it may still take until the beginning of next week to see who the winner is. However, the recent dip in the price of Gold may just be mainly owed to big banks and forex traders taking some big profits. I feel that there is a possibility that if Gold again approaches the $1,120 level, then the commodity may attract more and more interest from fx traders. The current support levels lie at $1,115.04, $1,120.58 and $1,128.08, and the latest resistance levels are $1,138.97 and $1,140.24.
XAG/USD:
Silver has yet again remerged as a popular short-term, medium-term and long-term investment for fx traders. The last dozen candles on the Silver 8 Hour Chart show that overall Silver is experiencing a strong bullish price movement. It seems that the commodity is in a very healthy position at the moment. However, the fact that the body of the last 2 candles have shrunk considerably indicates the possibility of a price reversal on the cards. On the other hand, I feel that it could be a mistake to discount the possibility of a continuation of Silver’s recent strength. The current support levels are $16.7371 and $16.8102, and the most recent resistance levels are at about $18.3544 and $19.4509. If Silver does indeed breach the $18.3544 level in the next 1-3 trading days, then there may be a continuation of Silver’s recent bullish behavior.
EUR/USD:
The EUR/USD 2 Hour Chart illustrates the current weakness of the Euro and the current strength of the Dollar. In the past several trading days, we have witnessed back-to-back bullish and bearish trends. Many forex traders are now asking the question as to whether the current bearish trend of the EUR/USD pair will be soon followed by a bullish trend? The truth is that if we take the recent trends into account, it is actually difficult to forecast which direction the pair may go in next. A popular choice amongst many large financial institutions and fx traders is to sell on highs and buy on lows. However, this strategy still does have its risks. For example, you may get stuck in a particular trade that you got yourself into! The latest support levels lie at $1.4257 and $1.4282, and the resistance levels are currently at $1.4445 and $1.4483.
forex
The USD has had a roller coaster ride within a known range against both the EUR and GBP this week and Thursday proved no exception. Today the Non Farm Employment Change numbers will be brought forth and are expected to have a figure of minus -3K. The previous report produced a minus -11K outcome and investors are anxiously awaiting today’s results. The question that may play a critical role in trading sentiment is whether or not the U.S. actually was able to add jobs last month. There are a variety of estimates regarding this jobless report and the divergent views could have a big impact on the equity markets and thus the currency markets going into the weekend. The weekly Unemployment Claims figures were released yesterday and produced a better number of 434K compared to the estimate of 449k.
The USD remains within the grasp of a risk appetite scenario. The USD gained by the end of trading on Thursday, yet its range was tested. Wall Street produced mixed results also yesterday as the major indexes turned in what might be described as cautious trading as today’s critical jobless reports are waited on. A positive Non Farm Employment Change figure today could be a catalyst for Wall Street, which has had several negative shadows hovering above it. Some investors have felt that the equity market gained in value without fundamental criteria the past half year and because of this a large contingent of institutions are known to still be on the sidelines. Not only the sentiment of the marketplace is at stake with today’s reports, the American public will actually pay attention and could take their cues from ‘good news’. The question obviously becomes whether or not ‘good news’ will be found today. If the jobless numbers show stark improvement it could spur on greater risk appetite and create a volatile mix for the USD today. What investors will have to balance will be the reactions from Wall Street and the implications for the Federal Reserve regarding their outlooks upon today’s results. Traders should be prepared for a fast marketplace today.
EUR:
The EUR traded in range against the USD on Thursday, and this occurred as German Retail Sales data proved disappointing. The Retail Sales figures from Germany came in with a minus –1.1% result while it was expecting a gain of 0.4%. Also the broad European Retail Sales figures proved weaker. Today the German Industrial Production data is on the calendar and the estimate is looking for a gain of 1.1%. Also on schedule will be Trade Balance numbers from Germany and France and the broad European Unemployment Rate. European data continues to turn in less than stellar statistics and the strong value of the EUR is certainly not helping the continent. While the EUR has lost ground to the USD the past month it does remain at a rather high value against the greenback and this is not seen as favorable by Germany or France. The EUR has shown some weakness in recent trading and today’s economic data from the U.S. will leave it in a dollar centric mode. Like all other currencies the EUR will likely experience a swift day and see its range tested.
GBP:
The Sterling remained unchanged by the end of the day and this occurred as the Bank of England announced that they would stay the path regarding monetary policy. There were no changes made to interest rate policy. Investors thus digested the news events around the GBP without little change in sentiment. The Halifax HPI was released yesterday and came in with a gain of 1.0%, which was better than the estimate of 0.6%. The manner that the Bank of England handled their policy decision may reflect the rather conservative tone that will be undertaken from the government as a whole for the next couple of months as England marches towards national elections. The U.K. will see PPI Input and Output data today and it is expected to show that inflation remains rather meek. The Sterling like the other major currencies will be on a razor’s edge today and could see volatility because of the jobless numbers from the States.
JPY:
The JPY saw volatility in late trading on Thursday as politics provided a storm. The new Japanese Finance Minister said earlier in the day he would like to see the JPY weaken, but he was quickly rebuffed when the Japanese Prime Minister said government officials should not make public comments about the JPY. After that Finance Minister Kan said that market forces should dictate the value of the currencies. Thus we were once again served another dish from the Japanese government which has consistently shown disunity regarding economic policy. The JPY remains an interesting trading opportunity and one that has seen a well practiced range.
Can Gold Hit The $1,140 Price Level Yet Again? Will the GBP/USD Bullish Run Continue?
XAU/USD:
Since the commencement of trading 2 days ago in which I forecasted the possibility that “If Gold does indeed breach the $1,124.78 resistance level in the coming hours, then I feel that the possibility of a more dynamic bullish run may be on the cards”, we have seen instances when Gold has gone from strength to strength. Despite the commodity losing ground from late night trading on the 6th of January, I still feel that it is in a decent position. According the Gold 1 Hour Chart, the last several candles indicate that the bulls and the bears are battling it out. Moreover, it may still take until the beginning of next week to see who the winner is. However, the recent dip in the price of Gold may just be mainly owed to big banks and forex traders taking some big profits. I feel that there is a possibility that if Gold again approaches the $1,120 level, then the commodity may attract more and more interest from fx traders. The current support levels lie at $1,115.04, $1,120.58 and $1,128.08, and the latest resistance levels are $1,138.97 and $1,140.24.
XAG/USD:
Silver has yet again remerged as a popular short-term, medium-term and long-term investment for fx traders. The last dozen candles on the Silver 8 Hour Chart show that overall Silver is experiencing a strong bullish price movement. It seems that the commodity is in a very healthy position at the moment. However, the fact that the body of the last 2 candles have shrunk considerably indicates the possibility of a price reversal on the cards. On the other hand, I feel that it could be a mistake to discount the possibility of a continuation of Silver’s recent strength. The current support levels are $16.7371 and $16.8102, and the most recent resistance levels are at about $18.3544 and $19.4509. If Silver does indeed breach the $18.3544 level in the next 1-3 trading days, then there may be a continuation of Silver’s recent bullish behavior.
EUR/USD:
The EUR/USD 2 Hour Chart illustrates the current weakness of the Euro and the current strength of the Dollar. In the past several trading days, we have witnessed back-to-back bullish and bearish trends. Many forex traders are now asking the question as to whether the current bearish trend of the EUR/USD pair will be soon followed by a bullish trend? The truth is that if we take the recent trends into account, it is actually difficult to forecast which direction the pair may go in next. A popular choice amongst many large financial institutions and fx traders is to sell on highs and buy on lows. However, this strategy still does have its risks. For example, you may get stuck in a particular trade that you got yourself into! The latest support levels lie at $1.4257 and $1.4282, and the resistance levels are currently at $1.4445 and $1.4483.
forex
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