Forex4you's Blog – February 2013 Archive (16)

EUR/USD: possible bearish resumption

Eurodollar rebounded off yesterday's lows breaking above 1.3120 and beginning a weak rally higher. It has now rolled over however and is in the process of pulling back. It will probably correct back further or even renew its down-trend. If it breaches the 1.3050 lows then that would confirm the bearish resumption, perhaps down to 1.2900, the target for the head and shoulders top. A rebound, however, would see a move up to the…

EUR/USD: pause in down-trend

The EUR/USD's decline has stalled at support at the 1.3000 level where it is currently consolidating. It will probably resume its descent given the short-term trend is down and continue lower to perhaps 1.2900 which is the profit target from the head and shoulders top, or even lower to the next target down at 1.2795. Alternatively, a bullish bounce would have to break above 1.3120 to gain traction, with an upside target at 1.3195…

EUR/USD: bullish break

Eurodollar's bounce was short-lived and after touching the top of the channel it continued lower. It will probably extend down even further, with the head & shoulders top indicating it will reach a downside target of 1.2900; with the next target after that at 1.2795, where there is a cluster of monthly and weekly pivots situated.…

EUR/USD: channeling down

The pair has been channelling down since the start of February. It has just reached the lower line of the channel and the monthly pivot and has rebound. It will probably bounce back up to the upper channel line at 1.3300 next, with further tougher resistance also at 1.3330. Eventually it will probably resume its down-trend, however, with the key 1.2950 level marked as a probable downside target for the move.…

EUR/USD: bullish break

Yesterday's narrow sideways range eventually led to a break out which broke through the down-sloping trend-line. There is an immediate upside target of 1.3480 but eventually also 1.3515 – the target from the breakout. If the pair falls back down, however, it will probably re-touch the 1.3220 lows, but the thick clusters of support underneath are likely to inhibit further downside.…

EUR/USD: moving sideways

Eurodollar continues to consolidate in a narrowing sideways pattern as noted yesterday. It is supported by the 200-4hr MA, a trend-line and the neckline of a possible H&S pattern. The greater trend is still up and a break above the 1.3395 highs would indicate a recovery higher, targeting the 1.3480 level. A lot of support underpins price including the 50-day MA at 1.3270, and so it would require a move below this and the trend-line at…

EUR/USD: bounce possible

The EUR/USD pair has fallen to a cluster of strong support including the 200-4hour moving average, a trend-line and a neckline for a possible H&S top. The downward pressure seems to have eased today and there is a reversal pattern breaking on the hourly chart which could signal a bounce back up; with a break above 1.3395 targeting 1.3470. Alternatively any further downside could break through the neckline of a potential head and shoulders…

EUR/USD: bearish break

The break below the key 1.3355 level has occurred this morning and could see eurodollar run down to 1.3250 initially, and then eventually possibly even key support at 1.2950. Much depends on whether today remains bearish into the close – if it does then this could be the start of a major leg down, otherwise we may yet see a recovery, although the trend-line at 1.3410 limits near-term upside potential.…

EUR/USD: possible bearish break

Eurodollar has fallen back down and touched support from the trend-line today. There is strong downwards pressure and it is attempting to break lower. A move below 1.3355 would be a strong bearish continuation sign with the 50-day MA at 1.3260 providing the next downside target. Alternatively there is still a possibility of a bounce targeting the 1.3640s, with a break above resistance clustered at 1.3460 adding confirmation.…

EUR/USD: rebound continues

Eurodollar's bounce from the trend-line and the monthly pivot has continued higher and reached 1.3470. Today we have had another thrust higher and it will probably continue. There is an inverted H&S on the hourly chart with a price target at 1.3500 and another target is 1.3640. Alternatively a break below 1.3355 lows would give bearish confirmation that the trend lower was resuming.…

EUR/USD: consolidating on support

The pair continues to consolidate on top of support from the trend-line and the monthly pivot. Activity today has been mainly bearish although it is now turning up, and a break above 1.3470 could trigger further upside to perhaps the 1.3715 highs. Alternatively a decisive break of the 1.3350 lows would indicate the trend-line had given way with a new target down at support at 1.2950.…

EUR/USD: consolidation in downtrend

Eurodollar has fallen to a natural support and resistance level and it has started to form a sideways consolidation. There is a possibility it could be a flag and if so then the flag pole extrapolated down could give a target at 1.3240.The H&S top at the highs could also yield a target at a similar level. Alternatively, given the pair is now edging up, if it continues it could reach 1.3470 first and then possibly 1.3500 where…

EUR/USD: possible uptrend resumption

The EUR/USD pair has spiked higher this morning and will probably continue. An initial target would be at 1.3655 followed by the 1.3715 highs. The move may be signalling a resumption of the up-trend, however, it is a little early to say, as much volatility is expected latter when the ECB releases its rate decision at 12.45 GMT. Alternatively a break of the neck-line at around 1.3470 could signal an extension of the bearish…

EUR/USD: technical update

EUR/USD has weakened this morning and if it continues lower it will reach the key trend-line at 1.3480-5 and begin to resemble a head and shoulders pattern, with a neckline at 1.3475 and downside target at 1.3230. The overall trend is still up, however, and the current bear move has retraced 61.8% of the previous rally so there is also the possibility of a rally higher from here, with an upside target at 1.3655.…

EUR/USD: correction extends

The pull-back in eurodollar continues and given there is no sign of reversal – in fact the down-move looks like it is strengthening – it will probably extend. A possible downside target would be the monthly pivot situated at 1.3390, which is further bolstered by a support and resistance line at the same level. Overall the mid-term trend remains up, however, and will probably resume eventually.…

EUR/USD: rallying

The EUR/USD pair is in a strong uptrend which will probably continue higher, with the next target at 1.3785 where the monthly pivot and the target from the trend-line break are situated. The 1.3540 trough low is key and would have to be breached for confirmation of more bearish action with a major support level situated at 1.3400.…