Adam Horak's Blog – April 2009 Archive (6)

Forex Trading Methods - Elliott Waves

What is Elliott Wave?



The Elliott Wave principle is a form of technical analysis that attempts to forecast trends in the financial markets and other collective activities, named after Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871–1948), an accountant who developed the concept in the 1930s, he proposed that market prices unfold in specific patterns, which practitioners today call Elliott Waves. Inspired by the Dow Theory and by observations found throughout… Continue

There is a strong probability that US employment will again fall very sharply for the latest month and the net risk suggests a slightly weaker than expected report, although there is no sense in looking to forecast the data at this point expectations are that the first part of Non-Farm employment report declined between -640,000 and -700,000 jobs and the unemployment number weekend to 8.5% from the prior number of 8.1%. Although overall risk appetite remains firm following the G20 summit, there… Continue

On the Horizon.

Overall, there has been a significant improvement in risk appetite due primarily to the rally in equity markets, which will weigh on the USD. In addition, worries by Chinese Premier Win Jiabao over its massive US Treasury holdings has also caused USD selling. China, the U.S. government's largest creditor, is “worried” about its holdings of Treasuries and wants assurances that the investment is safe. China is clearly concerned that the Fed will solve this crisis with the… Continue

ECB President Trichet continues to drive the market with his comments following a surprise rate cut that was smaller than expected. He noted that inflation is below target and expects it to remain there. He also said the upside and downside risks to growth are balanced. Yet, he went on to say that non-standard measures may be taken in May, but he will not discuss the details today. This likely refers to the quantitative easing the Fed and Bank of England have practiced, which is a little… Continue

ECB Minimum Bid Rate Actual 1.25%, Expected 1.00%, Previous 1.50%



Release Explanation: This is the Interbank overnight lending rate. It sets the tone for mortgages, commercial loans, and all economic lending criteria. An increase in Interest Rate will have the effect of slowing economic growth. A decrease in Interest Rate is used by a Central Bank to stimulate economic.



Trade Desk Thoughts: The ECB reduced the Minimum Bid Rate to 1.25%, even though that market expected a… Continue

FX Focus Shifts to G20 Meeting; Sterling Outperforms

Price action in the majors has been relatively stable overnight with the markets seemingly content on some consolidation ahead of a G20 meeting on Thursday that is generating a lot of attention, in light of the global turmoil and need for a unified solution. Looking ahead, key event risk comes in the form of ISM manufacturing data due at 10:00 EDT. Initially, ADP came out at 8:15 EDT showing more negativity in the labor market down… Continue