Forex4you's Blog (405)
A short statistical study of the EUR/USD pair - Forex4you's Corporate Blog
In this study I have attempted to go back to the very basic elements of price – open, close, high, low, daily range, daily change – and attempted to analyse these phenomena statistically.
Latter I discuss my conclusions and possible ways in which they can be used in trading.
The study was undertaken using the EUR/USD pair, using daily data only.
Types of days
In…
ContinueAdded by Forex4you on March 3, 2011 at 3:35am — No Comments
Forex4you Technical Analysis 01 March 2011
Level 1.3850 proved its status of the key resistance on the way up. The price stopped at this barrier and began consolidating within the range 1.3850-1.3780. Indicators, however, are turned upwards, which gives reasons to expect further growth, probably to level 1.3900/10. It's also worth considering a possibility of a pull back from the current levels as well. Decline below support at level 1.3720/10 will indicate cardinal changes in the… Continue
Added by Forex4you on March 1, 2011 at 7:48am — No Comments
Forex4you Technical Analysis - 25 Feb 2011
The current rally looks complete and yesterday’s prediction of a fall still holds. There has been a throw-over of the upper channel line but prices should fall back down again presently. The support and resistance level at 1.3750 provides an initial target with the bottom of the channel at 1.3700 as the final target. If there is a rally higher however I would expect it to reach the 1.3860s, where it would encounter resistance from the upper Bollinger band at 1.3864… Continue
Added by Forex4you on February 25, 2011 at 7:00am — No Comments
Forex4you Technical Analysis 24 Feb 2011
EUR/USD quite bearish short term as the exchange rate is currently bumping up against resistance from the upper channel line of the recent move. Wave patterns also point to the conclusion of an Elliot wave at or near the current highs. There is a bearish Demark setup on the 4-hour chart. Prices are likely to fall and when they do 1.3700 might support initially although substantial support doesn’t kick in until you reach 1.3620 where the… Continue
Added by Forex4you on February 24, 2011 at 7:06am — No Comments
Forex4you Technical Analysis 22 Feb 2011
The EUR/USD has rolled over and swiftly fallen to key support at the trendline from the 14th Feb lows. It may be there will be a correction from this level as it is also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous rally. Counting the Elliot waves in the fall we are either still in 3 or perhaps have begun wave 4. This morning there was a bounce which could be a nascent wave 4, with a likely target of 1.3605. However, there is also a… Continue
Added by Forex4you on February 22, 2011 at 7:16am — No Comments
Forex4you echnical Analysis 21Feb 2011
Previous forecast turned out to be correct - the price reached support at level 1.3540/30, then reversed to growth and breached resistance level 1.3630/40. After that the price rose to resistance level 1.3720/20, mentioned in the previous forecasts as the target level. Indicators show the "bullish" trend. which gives more reasons to expect further growth. The next resistance level is very likely stand at level 1.3820/30, close to the… Continue
Added by Forex4you on February 21, 2011 at 7:15am — No Comments
Forex4you Technical Analysis 18 Feb 2011
The exchange rate rose as anticipated and touched the upper channel line of the move up and the trendline down off the February 2nd highs at 1.3625. This was a crucial point of resistance which led to a minor reversal in trend. Currently it is falling quite fast although it may pause before falling further. The trendline of the correction at 1.3500 provides a probable target, whilst a stronger move might even reach the clusters of support at… Continue
Added by Forex4you on February 18, 2011 at 6:56am — No Comments
Forex4you Technical Analysis 17 Feb 2011
Resistance at level 1.3540 was finally breached. This level has been recently tested as support, so now we can assume that the price has managed to hold above and further growth can be expected. The closest resistance looks to be at level 1.3640/50, and this assumption seems to be even more correct because the level matches with a short-term downtrend channel line (red lines). It’s breakout would mean a reversal to the uptrend. Indicators… Continue
Added by Forex4you on February 17, 2011 at 7:12am — No Comments
Forex4you Technical Analysis 15 Feb 2011
The "bears" breached support range 1.3540 – 1.3500, but they were held back by another key support at level 1.3450/60 -1.3400. Having reached level 1.3420/30, the price returned to growth and it's currently making attempts to rise up to 1.3540/30. Indicators are changing their readings, which gives reasons to reconsider our expectations of further decline. Fixation above 1.3540 may indicate a possible reversal to growth. The final sign for… Continue
Added by Forex4you on February 15, 2011 at 7:17am — No Comments
Forex4you Technical Analysis 14 Feb 2011
The euro is looking very bearish now and has fallen through a key level - the previous trough low at 1.3507. This means the rising sequence of peaks and troughs from the January 10 lows has given way to a series of lower peaks and troughs. The exchange rate is currently hovering on the neckline of the head & shoulders (H&S) pattern on the 4-hourly chart and a breach of that would be an even stronger bearish signal with a long term… Continue
Added by Forex4you on February 14, 2011 at 7:46am — No Comments
Forex4you Technical Analysis 11 Feb 2011
The price breached the corrected trend line (blue) and is now about to test the key support range within 1.3540 – 1.3500. Indicators prefer a down trend, which gives reasons to anticipate a successful breakout of the above mentioned range. If the price falls and holds below level 1.3500, it will indicate a change of sentiment in the market. The final signal for reversal is support range 1.3450/60 -1.3400 breakout. At the same time, support… Continue
Added by Forex4you on February 11, 2011 at 7:37am — No Comments
Forex4you Technical Analysis 10 Feb 2011
The price rose above level 1.3700, but it failed to hold there, so it retraced downwards and it currently resides at level 1.3630/20. Indicators are chenging their direction, and now they are more turned down. However, until the trend line (blue) of the upper channel is breached, the "bullish" trend has to be considered as dominating and reversal to growth in the near future is seen as the most possible scenario. If so, growth to 1.3900/10… Continue
Added by Forex4you on February 10, 2011 at 7:19am — No Comments
Forex4you Technical Analysis 09 Feb 2011
The corrective rally which began on the 7th Feb is slowing down. After touching the 1.3680 highs and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the preceding move the rate has fallen and is now going sideways. It will probably fall further and if it passes below the previous trough low at 1.3611 that will be a strong bearish signal as the rising sequence of peaks and troughs will have been broken and replaced by a falling sequence instead.… Continue
Added by Forex4you on February 9, 2011 at 8:21am — No Comments
Forex4you Technical Analysis 08 Feb 2011
Level 1.3530/00 proved to be a strong support - the price failed to breach this barrier again and pulled back upwards. Trading is currently carried out at 1.3610\20. Indicators are changing their reading, although it's clearly seen only in R%, so it's too early to make any final conclusions - the situation is uncertain. Range trading within 1.3700-1.3530 may continue. Decline below 1.3500, i.e corrected up trend channel line (blue lines)… Continue
Added by Forex4you on February 8, 2011 at 7:01am — No Comments
Forex4you Technical Analysis 07 Feb 2011
The forecast turned out to be correct, so decline continued. The price met support around level 1.3530/00 and it's currently pulling back upwards. The trading is carried out at 1.3600/10. Indicators are "bearish", they are turned down, which gives reasons to anticipate further decline. However, a strong cluster of supports stands in the way at level 1.3530/00 and lower, being a serious challenge for the "bears". Therefore, range trading… Continue
Added by Forex4you on February 7, 2011 at 7:25am — No Comments
Forex4you Technical Analysis 4 Feb 2011
EUR/USD fell steeply yesterday, breaking through the trendline from the Jan lows until it reached a low of 1.3608. From there it has consolidated – probably in an Elliot wave 4 - and it may correct a little further before the downtrend resumes. Longer term wave patterns suggest the possibility of a major bear move evolving and momentum has given a sell signal. The direction of the move out of the consolidation range will dictate the price… Continue
Added by Forex4you on February 4, 2011 at 7:01am — No Comments
Forex4you Technical Analysis 2nd Feb 2011
Previous forecast turned out to be correct - the trades raised above 1.3800 and the price currently resides at 1.3830/40. Indicators are turned up, suggesting to expect further up trend. However, MACD divergence and strong resistance, that stands at 1.3900/10, give reasons to consider a serious pullback from 1.3900 in the near future. A pullback from higher resistance levels is also a possibility, but not higher than 1.3990. A plunge below… Continue
Added by Forex4you on February 2, 2011 at 7:05am — No Comments
Forex4you Technical Analysis 1st Feb 2011
The "bullish" trend became dominating and the price rose to 1.3700. It's currently making attempts to hold at these levels. Such turn of events has been mentioned previously as a signal to the "bullish" trend, so there reasons to expect growth to targets above resistance level 1.3780/1.3800. Indicators are turning up, suggesting that that the "bulls" will eventually succeed. Growth to 1.3900/1.3990 is quite a possibility, although it's worth… Continue
Added by Forex4you on February 1, 2011 at 7:09am — No Comments
Forex4you Technical Analysis 31 January 2011
This pair fell quite heavily after touching the major trend line of the June rally last week. In Elliot wave terms the fall is probably a 4th wave of the larger wave up from the lows reached on the 17th Jan. This suggests that when it has completed, wave 5 will rally back up again to either the 1.3760 highs or higher to around 1.3800. Before then, however, there is good possibility that this move down will continue a little, to either match… Continue
Added by Forex4you on January 31, 2011 at 7:01am — No Comments
Forex4you Technical Analysis 28 January 2011
Little changed in the structure, the price is consolidating in a sideways range, although it did manage to test a new local maximum at level 1.3755, which gives more reasons to expect the "bulls" to continue their trend and even reach target 1.3780/1.3800. Indicators show, that the "bullish" potential is weakening, suggesting a large-scale pullback downwards, as soon as the above mentioned level is tested. A decline below support level… Continue
Added by Forex4you on January 28, 2011 at 7:03am — No Comments
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