Forex4you's Blog (405)

EUR/USD: Up-Trend Continues

Eurodollar has broken above the monthly pivot at 1.3045 and risen up sharply. It is close to resistance from the 50-day MA in the 1.3130s. If it breaks above the 50-day then it may rise even further to a possible target at 1.3245. Currently there are no signs the short-term up-trend may be about to end. Several targets at the current level have been hit but…

AUD/USD: Poised for Bullish Breakout

The double top on the aussie failed to reach its downside target and instead there has been a strong recovery to the recent highs at 1.0495. There may be a broadening formation pattern unfolding on the 4-hour chart with upside potential. A decisive break above 1.0500 could see a move up to 1.0650 although the monthly pivot at 1.0565 is also likely to…

EUR/USD: Bullish Reversal

The EUR/USD pair has probably reversed its down-trend. It's most recent rally has formed a consolidation after hitting several upside targets. This could be a bull flag since we have also had a breakout from the expanding wedge pattern, and it will probably lead to a break higher and move to the 50-day MA at 1.3145 and finally 1.3220. A thrust above 1.3050 could…

AUD/USD: Double Top



After recent weakness led to a tentative break below the neckline of a double top at the 1.0380 level there is a chance we might see a move lower now to the target for the pattern at 1.0270. The picture looks bearish but a move back below the 1.0354 lows would give added downside confirmation. Upside is capped by major resistance form the multi-month triangle border…

EUR/USD: Consolidating Before Key News

Eurodollar is trading in a narrow range before the ECB rate-meeting later this morning. A bearish flag pattern may have formed with the potential for a break lower reaching a downside target initially at support at 1.2660 and then possibly eventually 1.2505. Upside is less likely and is capped by the 200-day MA and the monthly pivot in the 1.2880-90 area, and a…

EUR/USD: Continuation Down

Eurodollar is falling again and has broken down below the 1.2780 level confirming a renewal of the down-trend. This means it is likely to fall to a new downside target at 1.2650 measured from the pennant formed earlier, although 1.2675 provides an nearer target. Alternatively, if there is a rebound then one would expect upside caped by the 200-day MA at 1.2865, with a…

EUR/USD: Bearish Potential

Eurodollar has fallen back down making new lows. Importantly it has reached the 200-day MA and is consolidating at that level. We still don't have a decisive break below and would require a move under the monthly pivot at 1.2815 to support the bearish case. Currently it looks like a flag pattern could be forming on the 4hr chart with a downside target at 1.2650. More…

EUR/USD: Consolidating, Downside Bias



This pair has moved sideways this morning so far giving no indication of future direction. Currently there is resistance above price at 1.2920 from the 50 and 100-hour MA's and strong support at 1.2815 from weekly and monthly pivots. The pair has drifted out of the down-sloping channel but there is no upside impetus. A break above 1.2995 would signal a move up to 1.3060,…

EUR/USD: Sideways Market



The euro rebounded off its lows during Wednesday's session and found its way above the upper line of the down-sloping channel. This morning, however, it has started to fall once again and has now reached the upper channel line again where it is consolidating temporarily on the support offered. Given the bearish start to the day it is possible there could be a continuation lower, with a break of 1.2865…

GBP/USD: bounce continues

The GBP/USD has bounced strongly from Wednesday's lows. It has continued rallying this morning and it may go even higher eventually, reaching resistance from the monthly pivot and the trend-line at 1.5310. Apart from the strength of the rebound there are no indication's yet of a reversal of the short-term down-trend: there are no price patterns and only a minor trend-line has been broken, therefore, it is still quite probable the down-trend…

EUR/USD: 1.29 still supporting

Eurodollar sold off yesterday reaffirming the short-term down-trend as it continues making lower lows and lower highs. It also retracted back into its descending channel after temporarily breaking out. Nevertheless it failed to break the key support level from the September and October '12 highs. The target from the H&S top is met so there is potential for a bounce. Volume on yesterday's spike-down was weak and a rise back up to the…

EUR/USD: channel breakout

We have now had a break out of the channel, although there has been limited follow-through. The bounce from Friday's lows continues to rise slowly and there is a possibility now – since the channel breakout - of a continuation eventually up to the target at 1.3180. The price pattern stretching back over a week looks potentially like a reversal enhancing bullish outlook. A bundle of resistance at 1.3115 impedes but a decisive break above…

EUR/USD: reversal a possibility

Eurodollar is in a sideways consolidation with support in the 1.29s. The target for the head and shoulders top has pretty much been met so it is possible a reversal could develop, with a definitive break above 1.3055 signalling a breakout from the channel and possible resumption of mid-term up-trend and initial target at 1.3133. The pair remains in its down-sloping channel, however, so more weakness is also very possible, with a break…

EUR/USD: 'pulling-back'

EUR/USD pair is still recovering but less aggressively than it did yesterday. This morning's activity has been mixed and it is possible it will continue sideways. If we get a break above the key 1.3100 level then there is a chance of a rally up to the top of the channel at around 1.3140-50. The rebound is probably just a pull-back and the down-trend should resume eventually and probably reach the target from the head and shoulders top…

EUR/USD: rebounding

The EUR/USD pair has rebounded. If it breaks above the key 1.3100 level then it will probably reach the top of the channel at 1.3150 where the 100-day MA is also situated nearby. There are no strong signs of reversal and the current upside is probably just a pull-back. The down-trend should resume eventually and probably reach the target from the head and shoulders top at 1.2900.…

EUR/USD: hitting range lows

Eurodollar is consolidating in a range. Yesterday it reached 1.3160 before falling back down and it will probably fall further, given today's bearish start, with the 1.3018 lows now in focus. A decisive move below those would act as confirmation of a resumption of the down-trend down to 1.2900, the target from the head and shoulders pattern at the highs. Alternatively there is the possibility of a move higher back up to the range highs at…

EUR/USD: possible bearish resumption

Eurodollar rebounded off yesterday's lows breaking above 1.3120 and beginning a weak rally higher. It has now rolled over however and is in the process of pulling back. It will probably correct back further or even renew its down-trend. If it breaches the 1.3050 lows then that would confirm the bearish resumption, perhaps down to 1.2900, the target for the head and shoulders top. A rebound, however, would see a move up to the…

EUR/USD: pause in down-trend

The EUR/USD's decline has stalled at support at the 1.3000 level where it is currently consolidating. It will probably resume its descent given the short-term trend is down and continue lower to perhaps 1.2900 which is the profit target from the head and shoulders top, or even lower to the next target down at 1.2795. Alternatively, a bullish bounce would have to break above 1.3120 to gain traction, with an upside target at 1.3195…

EUR/USD: bullish break

Eurodollar's bounce was short-lived and after touching the top of the channel it continued lower. It will probably extend down even further, with the head & shoulders top indicating it will reach a downside target of 1.2900; with the next target after that at 1.2795, where there is a cluster of monthly and weekly pivots situated.…

EUR/USD: channeling down

The pair has been channelling down since the start of February. It has just reached the lower line of the channel and the monthly pivot and has rebound. It will probably bounce back up to the upper channel line at 1.3300 next, with further tougher resistance also at 1.3330. Eventually it will probably resume its down-trend, however, with the key 1.2950 level marked as a probable downside target for the move.…