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U.S. Census Bureau

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

NEWS

U.S. Department of Commerce * Washington, DC 20230



U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES

July 2009



Goods and Services



The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department

of Commerce, announced today that total July exports of $127.6 billion and imports of

$159.6 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $32.0 billion, up… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on September 10, 2009 at 9:04am — No Comments

the dollar goes out with a bang

The Dollar goes out with a bang.



With the summer doldrums coming to an end following the Labor Day holiday the greenback starts off the trading season with a revaluation of price, selling off throughout the European session and into the start of the US session. Traders are still reeling from the moves that began during the European session. The Dollar is now trading at some of the lowest levels of 2009 as the UN called for a replacement to on the dollars influence as the reserve… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on September 8, 2009 at 11:39am — No Comments

us non farm june 2 2009

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: JUNE 2009



Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in June (-467,000),

and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.5 percent, the Bureau

of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today.

Job losses were widespread across the major industry sectors, with

large declines occurring in manufacturing, professional and business

services, and construction.



Unemployment (Household Survey… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on July 2, 2009 at 8:37am — No Comments

July 01 2009 ADP

Nonfarm private employment decreased 473,000 from May to June 2009 on a seasonally

adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change of

employment from April to May was revised by 47,000, from a decline of 532,000 to a decline of

485,000.

Monthly employment losses in April, May, and June averaged 492,000. This is a notable

improvement over the first three months of the year, when monthly losses averaged 691,000.

Nevertheless,… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on July 1, 2009 at 9:20am — No Comments

June 24 FOMC statement

(FED) FOMC Statement June 24, 2009

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the pace of economic contraction is slowing. Conditions in financial markets have generally improved in recent months. Household spending has shown further signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are cutting back on fixed investment and staffing but appear to be making progress in bringing… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on June 24, 2009 at 2:37pm — No Comments

the problem is not inflation now, its inflation in the future.

U.S. International Transactions: First Quarter 2009

Current Account





The U.S. current-account deficit—the combined balances on trade in goods

and services, income, and net unilateral current transfers—decreased to $101.5

billion (preliminary) in the first quarter of 2009, the smallest deficit since

the fourth quarter of 2001, from $154.9 billion (revised) in the fourth quarter

of 2008. The decrease was more than accounted for by a decrease in the… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on June 17, 2009 at 8:36am — No Comments

formula for forcasting central bank rates

To raise or not to raise; that is the question.



With the US and global economies on the brink of a potential recovery when and how much should the FED raise interest rates? Let’s start off by looking at a formula often used by traders to predict the target rate for a central banks short term interest rates. Proposed by John Taylor in 1993 the (Taylor Rule) is widely accepted by economists today as a gauge for appropriate interest rate levels in conjunction with current economic… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on June 12, 2009 at 3:52pm — No Comments

Dollar collapse continues today

EURO/USD made the expected correction yesterday. Today it has formed the high (1.3616) and low (1.3564) during early Japanese session. It is expected to make volatile moves to cut the low and go below during European session to the expected area of 1.3500 and then rise from late European session to go above the high to the area of 1.3650 and above. Quick drops are buy opportunities during European session to book profit during US session quick rise.





GBP/USD is expected to swing… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on May 12, 2009 at 3:14pm — No Comments

FOREX trading methods Elliott Wave patterns.

Forex Trading Methods - Elliott Waves

What is Elliott Wave?



The Elliott Wave principle is a form of technical analysis that attempts to forecast trends in the financial markets and other collective activities, named after Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871–1948), an accountant who developed the concept in the 1930s, he proposed that market prices unfold in specific patterns, which practitioners today call Elliott Waves. Inspired by the Dow Theory and by observations found throughout… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on April 3, 2009 at 1:30pm — No Comments

non-farm news

There is a strong probability that US employment will again fall very sharply for the latest month and the net risk suggests a slightly weaker than expected report, although there is no sense in looking to forecast the data at this point expectations are that the first part of Non-Farm employment report declined between -640,000 and -700,000 jobs and the unemployment number weekend to 8.5% from the prior number of 8.1%. Although overall risk appetite remains firm following the G20 summit, there… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on April 3, 2009 at 8:26am — No Comments

Hyperinflation is staring us in the face.

On the Horizon.

Overall, there has been a significant improvement in risk appetite due primarily to the rally in equity markets, which will weigh on the USD. In addition, worries by Chinese Premier Win Jiabao over its massive US Treasury holdings has also caused USD selling. China, the U.S. government's largest creditor, is “worried” about its holdings of Treasuries and wants assurances that the investment is safe. China is clearly concerned that the Fed will solve this crisis with the… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on April 2, 2009 at 2:08pm — No Comments

ECB press statement.

ECB President Trichet continues to drive the market with his comments following a surprise rate cut that was smaller than expected. He noted that inflation is below target and expects it to remain there. He also said the upside and downside risks to growth are balanced. Yet, he went on to say that non-standard measures may be taken in May, but he will not discuss the details today. This likely refers to the quantitative easing the Fed and Bank of England have practiced, which is a little… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on April 2, 2009 at 9:28am — No Comments

ECB cuts by 25 BPS less then market expectations.

ECB Minimum Bid Rate Actual 1.25%, Expected 1.00%, Previous 1.50%



Release Explanation: This is the Interbank overnight lending rate. It sets the tone for mortgages, commercial loans, and all economic lending criteria. An increase in Interest Rate will have the effect of slowing economic growth. A decrease in Interest Rate is used by a Central Bank to stimulate economic.



Trade Desk Thoughts: The ECB reduced the Minimum Bid Rate to 1.25%, even though that market expected a… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on April 2, 2009 at 9:01am — No Comments

FOREX traders now looking to US ISM and Thurdsdays G20 meeting ahead of US non-farm number.

FX Focus Shifts to G20 Meeting; Sterling Outperforms

Price action in the majors has been relatively stable overnight with the markets seemingly content on some consolidation ahead of a G20 meeting on Thursday that is generating a lot of attention, in light of the global turmoil and need for a unified solution. Looking ahead, key event risk comes in the form of ISM manufacturing data due at 10:00 EDT. Initially, ADP came out at 8:15 EDT showing more negativity in the labor market down… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on April 1, 2009 at 9:52am — No Comments

thursday 3 26 2009 economic outlook

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has issued the following news release today:

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 6.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter),

In the week ending March 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 652,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on March 26, 2009 at 9:03am — No Comments

Dollar collapse continues today

Dollar collapsed yesterday following Fed's announcement to ramp up the money printing machine to purchase up to $300b of long term treasury securities and expand purchase of mortgage backed securities by $750b and agency debts by $100b. The selling in dollar subsided a bit in Asian session but after all, the greenback is still under tremendous pressure against major currencies. On the other hand, yen crosses are generally lower today on profit taking and repatriation flows as well as talk that… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on March 19, 2009 at 12:55pm — No Comments

money management

MONEY MANAGEMENT



Most beginning traders believe that a good entry into the market is the key to success. Unfortunately most are very wrong. Money Management is by far the most important criteria of trading, whether it’s stocks, futures or FOREX. Every successful trader will agree that managing your trades correctly is the #1 key to consistent profits.



Loosing a trade or several trades in a row is just part of trading, period! Having a plan and trading your plan is key to… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on March 17, 2009 at 3:25pm — No Comments

monday and tuesday outlook

• USD starts firm in Asia, weakens into Europe

• G-20 seen as a disappointment

• Volumes light and technical trade continues





Today’s Economic Reports

All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)

• 8:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index

• 9:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases

• 9:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate

• 9:15am USD Industrial Production m/m

• 1:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index





Looking Ahead to Tuesday

All times Eastern… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on March 16, 2009 at 12:56pm — No Comments

walking through a trade.

trade set up. entry point, stops, adjustments and profit target.

Added by Adam Horak on March 4, 2009 at 11:04am — No Comments

JPY may become under presure.

The pressures for a further Bank of Japan response to the severe downturn will tend to weaken the yen, although substantial selling pressure looks unlikely given risk aversion



The dollar found support below the 92 area against the yen on Tuesday despite general weakness in global equity markets. There will be a further suspicion of covert official intervention through Japanese funds to undermine the yen, especially as it failed to gain any significant support from the initial decline… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on February 18, 2009 at 11:54am — No Comments

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