Forex4you's Blog (405)

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

1.3280/90 support held back the price from further decline - trading recommenced growth and rose to the new local maximums. At the moment the price is testing level 1.3360/40, which now coincides with previously breached uptrend channel (red) line. "Bullish" attempt to push the price up to the channel's sector failed. Indicators are turned up again, giving reasons to expect more attempts to come. If the price succeeds, we'll be expecting a…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Earlier concerns, that 1.3290 resistance may initiate another pullback down, seem to confirm. Having tested this key resistance, the price recommenced its decline and now resides at 1.3220/10 levels. Indicators are changing to more "bearish", which gives reasons to expect current decline to proceed down to 1.3100 support. If this barrier, together with the secondary trend (blue dashed) line are breached, trades will most likely fall to the…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair has reached a band of resistance and a zone where it has been repelled several times before at the recent highs around 1.3275. It has posted a hanging-man candlestick at these highs on the 4-hourly chart and it is possible that this may signal a reversal and a fall from there back down to the range lows at 1.3000, although that target is quite far off and it is more likely it will fall to a nearer target at 1.3115 support…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

"Bulls" failed to reach 1.3290/80 level - the price was held back by 1.3270/65 resistance and pulled back to level 1.3220/30, where it still resides. Indicators suggest further growth, but the readings seem to be weakening. Earlier breached uptrend (red) line around 1.3290/1.3300 level is likely to be tested anytime soon. To anticipate a medium-term uptrend this resistance has to be breached and the price should hold above. In this case…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The price stayed within narrow ranges between 1.3100-1.3030/50 levels, like expected. Trading is currently carried out at 1.3060/50 levels. Indicators remained unchanged, suggesting to consider further "bearish" trend. The price is likely to stay sideways within previously formed range. The next target will be found at 1.2970/60 level. If this support fails to halt a decline, the next barrier on the way down will be found at 1.2870/80…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The possibility of a short-term base forming and a reversal higher cannot be discounted. There may be a final exhaustive move lower to 1.3000 first but then I see signs of bottom forming and a rally back up to the trend-line for the move down at around 1.3130. After that the longer-term picture is still bearish with a 2-bar reversal on the weekly and a strong possibility of a move back down for a re-touch of the 1.26 lows.…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Earlier forecasts, expecting correction to continue and reach 1.3180 level, confirmed. The level turned out to be a strong resistance, so the price recommenced its decline and now resides at 1.3130/20 level. Indicators are "bearish" again, giving reasons to anticipate a reversal down. On the other hand, this "bearish" scenario will be possible only if the price falls below 1.3100 level. Medium-term outlook suggests the next targets to be…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Euro-dollar fell to 1.3100 in an Elliot 5th wave of the move which started at the end of February, as predicted. A 4th wave correction of the that final 5th appears to be unfolding currently. Once complete it is possible another wave lower – the very final 5th may once again re-touch the 1.3080 lows, however, equally possible would be that the last 5th is shorter than usual and is followed by a rapid corrective rebound, correcting the whole…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Euro-dollar has reversed its trend and started moving back down. The current bearish move is probably the Elliot 5th wave of the move down from the February highs and I would expect it to continue to the former lows at 1.3100. It has already reached the lower channel line of the rally since January and will probably bounce, possibly to 1.3240, before resuming the down-trend. Eventually, however, I would expect it to break through the…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis



The euro-dollar is currently correcting the recent decline. It has almost reached a band of resistance at the 1.3170 level where it might reverse and a move back down to the range lows at 1.3105. Some consolidation with more corrective rallies is forecast thereafter - and possibly even a move up to 1.3200. Eventually, however, the pair will probably resume the down-trend given the recent breakdown from out of its bullish channel, and the…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

After yesterday's modest bounce back to 1.3240 markets have broken back down again and are in the process of retesting the previous 1.3159 lows and making another attempt at breaking down through the trend-line supporting the January rally. A successful break would immediately target the 1.3040s where a cluster of major pivots lie, but eventually I would expect the 1.2850s to be in sight. A rebound back up into the channel is still possible…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Seems like the "bearish" scenario commenced, like expected - the price declined, breached 1.3300/1.3290 level and fell further down to level 1.3250/60, where it still resides. Indicators are "bearish", which gives enough reasons to anticipate 1.3240/30 level - the uptrend (red) line to be tested anytime soon. However, strong 1.3200/1.3190 support on the way may hold a decline for quite a while. Growth above 1.3380 will cancel the…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Wednesday's strong move down has reached solid support from the R1 monthly pivot. Whilst it is possible that the sideways move will continue (between 1.3315 and 1.3355) there is a strong possibility the move down has further to go. One way of determining how far might be to use the double top pattern at the highs as a measuring stick. By extending this down we get a target of 1.3240, which is also at the level of a past consolidation zone…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

A break of trend-line has opened the way down to support clustered at the 1.3365 consolidation lows – although 1.3400 could be a nearer target. After that, my preference is for higher moves as we seem to be in an ending diagonal, which could reach as high as 1.3600/25 where the channel line linking the August and October tops is situated (1.3600) and perhaps the 61.8% extension of A-B (1.3627).…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The pair corrected to 1.3380 support, mentioned earlier as the first key barrier on the way down. The level turned out to be hard to breach, so trading recommenced its growth and the price now resides at 1.3430/40 level. Indicators suggest weakening "bullish strength", which gives reasons to anticipate further consolidation within 1.3470/80 – 1.3380 range. If trades fall below 1.3410/15 level, we'll be expecting a decline to 1.3380 level…

USD/JPY: Technical Analysis

The pair ascended higher than expected. Having tested 81.60/70 levels, the price pulled back down. Trading is currently carried out at 80.80/90. Most indicators are "bullish", although MACD divergence has formed, so it's now weakening, giving enough reasons to consider present decline as the beginning of a long-term and deep large-scale correction. A pullback has all chances to continue down to 79.90/60 support or even lower, to 79.00.…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD has risen strongly, breaking above key resistance from a major channel line and there is a strong possibility now of even more upside. A little bit of resistance resides at 1.3400, then there is the R2 weekly pivot at 1.3443 before substantial resistance kicks in at 1.3550 – my main longer-term upside target.…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

he EUR/USD pair has broken-out from the triangular consolidation in the opposite direction to that which was expected - rising rather than falling. Highs of 1.3342 have been reached where the R1 monthly pivot is situated but the exchange rate was repelled back down, and it may well fall to support from the top of the range and the weekly pivot at 1.3285, before mounting another rally, with further gains to 1.3380/1.3400 targeted…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The bearish analysis from yesterday still stands. The technical situation has not altered given the sideways market activity. There is still a head and shoulders pattern at the highs – with a smaller pattern on the 30min, still resistance from the bottom of a major channel and the gap from Monday remains unfilled. The pair will probably fall to 1.3160, filling the gap and then perhaps to the larger H&S neckline at 1.3025.…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Earlier analysis confirmed - the price has ascended towards the uptrend channel (blue dashed) line and is currently testing its strength as resistance. Trading is carried out at 1.3260 level. With no significant changes made to the structure, previous forecasts still apply - growth can continue up to 1.3310/05 level, without making any harm to the "bearish" potential. Growth above 1.3320/25 level will indicate possible ascension towards new…