Adam Horak's Blog

Cordinated rate cut.

Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, Swiss National Bank and Sweden's Riksbank join forces today in a historical, emergency, coordinated global rate cuts by 50bps ease save the world's economies from the worst crisis since the Great Depression. Fed, ECB, BoE, BoC and Riksbank will cut by 50bps. SNB cut by 25bps. PBoC of China also joins to cut by 27bps. BoJ didn't participate but said it supports the move.

The resulting interest rates… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on October 8, 2008 at 2:19pm — No Comments

NON Farm Sept 08

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: SEPTEMBER 2008

Nonfarm payroll employment declined by 159,000 in September, and

the unemployment rate held at 6.1 percent, the Bureau of Labor Sta-

tistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Employment

continued to fall in construction, manufacturing, and retail trade,

while mining and health care

continued to add jobs.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

The unemployment rate (6.1 percent) was… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on October 3, 2008 at 10:56am — No Comments

Oct ADP Report

Wednesday, October 1, 2008, 8:15 A.M. ET

Nonfarm private employment decreased 8,000 from August to September 2008 on a seasonally

adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change in

employment from July to August was revised down from a decrease of 33,000 to a decrease of

37,000.

September’s ADP National Employment Report continues to offer evidence of a weak labor

market. Note that this month, the ADP Report does not reflect… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on October 1, 2008 at 8:43am — No Comments

Sept 20 unemployment weekly claims

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Sept. 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 493,000, an increase of 32,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 461,000. It is estimated that the effects of Hurricane Gustav in Louisiana and the effects of Hurricane Ike in Texas added approximately 50,000 claims to the total. The 4-week moving average was 462,500, an increase of 16,000 from the previous… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on September 25, 2008 at 9:52am — No Comments

FOMC

For immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 2 percent.

Strains in financial markets have increased significantly and labor markets have weakened further. Economic growth appears to have slowed recently, partly reflecting a softening of household spending. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and some slowing in export growth are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on September 16, 2008 at 2:30pm — No Comments

Aug CPI 2008

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: AUGUST 2008

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased

0.4 percent in August, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor

Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The August

level of 219.086 (1982-84=100) was 5.4 percent higher than in August 2007.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers

(CPI-W) decreased 0.5 percent in August, prior to seasonal… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on September 16, 2008 at 9:14am — No Comments

trading on the momentum not the moment of the news

Added by Adam Horak on September 5, 2008 at 9:03am — 1 Comment

August non farm payroll 2008

The unemployment rate rose from 5.7 to 6.1 percent in August, and non-

farm payroll employment continued to trend down (-84,000), the Bureau of

Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. In August,

employment fell in manufacturing and employment services, while mining and

health care continued to add jobs. Average hourly earnings rose by 7 cents,

or 0.4 percent, over the month.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

The number… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on September 5, 2008 at 8:49am — No Comments

break out and continuation

Added by Adam Horak on August 28, 2008 at 1:04pm — 1 Comment

range trading

Added by Adam Horak on August 28, 2008 at 9:26am — 1 Comment

GDP Q2 2008 Preliminary

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND CORPORATE PROFITS: Second Quarter 2008 (Preliminary)

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property

located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the second quarter of 2008,

(that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to preliminary estimates released by the

Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.9… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on August 28, 2008 at 9:01am — No Comments

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA In the week ending Aug. 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 425,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the…

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Aug. 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 425,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 435,000. The 4-week moving average was 440,250, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised average of 446,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending Aug. 16, an… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on August 28, 2008 at 8:41am — No Comments

two schools of thought.

Debt auction:

The Treasury Dept. is set to auction off $32 billion worth of 2-year bond notes Wednesday, the largest auction of 2-year notes in history. A big shot of supply typically sends bond prices lower.

The auction for the 2-year note closes at 1 p.m. EST on Wednesday.

Oil prices:

Oil prices look to push higher as traders worried whether Tropical Storm Gustav might cut crude supplies that come out of the Gulf Coast of Mexico.

Bond traders always watch oil prices… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on August 27, 2008 at 12:09pm — No Comments

FOMC meeting

The Manager of the System Open Market Account reported on recent developments in foreign exchange markets. There were no open market operations in foreign currencies for the System's account in the period since the previous meeting. The Manager also reported on developments in domestic financial markets and on System open market operations in government securities and federal agency obligations during the period since the previous meeting. By unanimous vote, the Committee ratified these… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on August 27, 2008 at 11:27am — No Comments

EUR/USD aug 26 2008

Added by Adam Horak on August 27, 2008 at 9:29am — 1 Comment

economic symposium

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke

At the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Annual Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming

August 22, 2008

Reducing Systemic Risk

In choosing the topic for this year's symposium--maintaining stability in a changing financial system--the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City staff is, once again, right on target. Although we have seen improved functioning in some markets, the financial storm that reached gale force some weeks… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on August 22, 2008 at 10:21am — No Comments

news for the week of Aug 10

Sun

Aug 10 9:30pm AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement

Mon

Aug 11 2:00am EUR German WPI m/m 0.5% 0.9%

2:00am JPY Machine Tool Orders y/y -2.5%

2:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m 0.5% -2.6%

4:30am GBP PPI Input m/m 1.0% 2.1%

4:30am GBP Trade Balance -7.4B -7.5B

4:30am GBP PPI Output m/m 0.5% 0.9%

8:15am CAD Housing Starts 210K 218K

8:30am CAD New Housing Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.0%

7:01pm GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on August 8, 2008 at 10:51pm — No Comments

this may be the sign of further dollar strengh into next week!!!

Dollar's sharp broad based rally extends further today with the support of weakness in commodity prices. Gold breaches $860 level briefly and remains weak. Crude oil also dives to as low as 117.36 and is set to test this week's low of 117.11. Commodity currencies remain the biggest losers today with bearish rate expectation on RBA and RBNZ. Further pressure is seen in the Canadian dollar after the release of much worse than expected Jun employment report. Note that as we mentioned earlier, both… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on August 8, 2008 at 8:12pm — No Comments

weekly unemployment numbers.

In the week ending Aug. 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 455,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 448,000. The 4-week moving average was 419,500, an increase of 26,750 from the previous week's revised average of 392,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.5 percent for the week ending July 26, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 2.5 percent.

The advance number for… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on August 7, 2008 at 9:42am — No Comments

fundamentals or technicals

Fundamental analysis is a method of evaluation by attempting to measure intrinsic value. Fundamental analysts study everything from the overall economy; current and future economic conditions to the financial conditions and future expectations along with what may be factored into the market.

Technical analysis is the evaluation of price or future price movements by studying statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume. Technical analysts do not attempt to… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on August 6, 2008 at 8:07am — No Comments

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