US Economic Calendar

The Employment Report/non farm payroll
• Importance (A-F): This release merits an A.
• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
• Release Time: First Friday of the month at 8:30 ET for the prior month
• Raw Data Available At: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm.
The employment report is actually two separate reports which are the results of two separate surveys. The household survey is a survey of roughly 60,000 households. This survey produces the unemployment rate. The establishment survey is a survey of 375,000 businesses. This survey produces the nonfarm payrolls, average workweek, and average hourly earnings figures, to name a few. Both surveys cover the payroll period which includes the 12th of each month.
The reports both measure employment levels, just from different angles. Due to the vastly different size of the survey samples (the establishment survey not only surveys more businesses, but each business employs many individuals), the measures of employment may differ markedly from month to month. The household survey is used only for the unemployment measure - the market focuses primarily on the more comprehensive establishment survey. Together, these two surveys make up the employment report, the most timely and broad indicator of economic activity released each month.
Total payrolls are broken down into sectors such as manufacturing, mining, construction, services, and government. The markets follow these components closely as indicators of the trends in sectors of the economy; the manufacturing sector is watched the most closely as it often leads the business cycle. The data also include breakdowns of hours worked, overtime, and average hourly earnings.
The average workweek (also known as hours worked) is important for two reasons. First, it is a critical determinant of such monthly indicators as industrial production and personal income. Second, it is considered a useful indicator of labor market conditions: a rising workweek early in the business cycle may be the first indication that employers are preparing to boost their payrolls, while late in the cycle a rising workweek may indicate that employers are having difficulty finding qualified applicants for open positions. Average earnings are closely followed as an indicator of potential inflation. Like the price of any good or service, the price of labor reacts to an overly accommodative monetary policy. If the price of labor is rising sharply, it may be an indication that too much money is chasing too few goods, or in this case employees.

FOMC
• Importance (A-F): This release merits an A-.
• Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
• Release Time: about 2:15 on the final day or each FOMC meeting.
• Raw Data Available At: www.federalreserve.gov
Federal Open Market Committee is a 12-member committee which sets credit and interest rate policies for the Federal Reserve System. This committee consists of 7 members of the Board of Governors, and 5 of the 12 Federal Reserve Bank Presidents. This group, headed by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, sets interest rates either directly (by changing the discount rate) or through the use of open market operations (by buying and selling government securities which affects the federal funds rate). The discount rate is the rate at which the Federal Reserve Bank charges member banks for overnight loans. The Fed actually controls this rate directly, but it tends to have little impact on the activities of banks because these funds are available elsewhere. This rate is set during the FOMC meetings by the regional banks and the Federal Reserve Board. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which banks loan excess reserves to each other. While the Fed can't directly affect this rate, it effectively controls it through the way it buys and sells Treasuries to banks. There are 8 scheduled FOMC meetings during the course of each year. However, when circumstances dictate, the Fed can make inter-meeting rate changes.


Retail Sales
• Importance (A-F): This release merits an A-.
• Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.
• Release Time: 8:30 ET around the 13th of the month (data for one month prior).
• Raw Data Available At: http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/advtable.html.
The retail sales report is a measure of the total receipts of retail stores. The changes in retail sales are widely followed as the timeliest indicator of broad consumer spending patterns. Retail sales are often viewed ex-autos, as auto sales can move sharply from month-to-month. It is also important to keep an eye on the gas and food components, where changes in sales are often a result of price changes rather than shifting consumer demand.
Retail sales can be quite volatile and the advance reports are subject to rather large revisions. Retail sales do not include spending on services, which makes up over half of total consumption. Total personal consumption is not available until the personal income and consumption reports are released, typically two weeks after retail sales.
CPI: Consumer Price Index
• Importance (A-F): This release merits a B+.
• Source: Bureau of Labor statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
• Release Time: 8:30 ET, about the 13th of each month for the prior month.
• Raw Data Available At: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm.
The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the price level of a fixed market basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. CPI is the most widely cited inflation indicator, and it is used to calculate cost of living adjustments for government programs and it is the basis of COLAs for many private labor agreements as well. It has been criticized for overstating inflation, because it does not adjust for substitution effects and because the fixed basket does not reflect price changes in new technology goods which are often declining in price. Despite these criticisms, it remains the benchmark inflation index.
CPI can be greatly influenced in any given month by a movement in volatile food and energy prices. Therefore, it is important to look at CPI excluding food and energy, commonly called the "core rate" of inflation. Within the core rate, some of the more volatile and closely watched components are apparel, tobacco, airfares, and new cars. In addition to tracking the month/month changes in core CPI, the year/year change in core CPI is seen by most economists as the best measure of the underlying inflation rate.
Federal Reserve Boards Beige Book
• Importance (A-F): This release merits a B.
• Source: Federal Reserve Board
• Raw data available at: http://www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/BeigeBook
• Release Time: 2:00 ET two Wednesdays before the FOMC meeting
The Beige Book is put out in advance of each FOMC meeting providing relevant information to the public as a backdrop to the upcoming FOMC meeting. This release provides up to date information on economic conditions around the country. This is also what is given to each member of the FOMC as reference for the FOMC debate on interest rate policy. The Beige Book is a collection of information from each of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts and is based on interviews with local businesspeople and academics who are asked to describe the economic climate in there region. This is then put together with a summary by one of the Federal Reserve District banks in preparation for the next FOMC meeting.
Durable Goods Orders
• Importance (A-F): This release merits a B.
• Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.
• Release Time: 8:30 ET around the 26th of the month (data for month prior).
• Raw Data Available At: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3/index.htm.
The durable orders release measures the dollar volume of orders, shipments, and unfilled orders of durable goods (defined as goods whose intended lifespan is three years or more). Orders are considered a leading indicator of manufacturing activity, and the market often moves on this report despite the volatility and large revisions that make it a less than perfect indicator. These problems can be minimized by looking at the breakdown of orders. The total number is often skewed by huge increases in aircraft and defense orders. An increase based solely on strength in one sector tends to be discounted, while the market is more impressed with broad based increases in orders.
Also notable in this report is the narrow category of nondefense capital goods. These goods mirror the GDP category producers' durable equipment (PDE) -- the largest component of business investment. Shipments of nondefense capital goods are a good proxy for PDE in the current quarter, while nondefense capital goods orders provide an indication of PDE growth in the quarters ahead.
Regional Manufacturing Surveys
• Importance (A-C): The Philadelphia Fed Index and Chicago PMI merit a B; the rest merit a D.
• Source: Varies - Purchasing managers' organizations and Federal Reserve banks.
• Release Time: Varies. Philadelphia Fed at 10 ET on the third Thursday of the month for the current month. Chicago PMI on the last business day of the month for the current month.
There are many regional manufacturing surveys, and they tend to be ranked in order of timeliness and the importance of the region. The Philadelphia Fed's survey is first each month, actually coming out during the third week of the month for which it is reporting. Several smaller surveys are then released before the Chicago purchasing managers' report on the last day of each month. A few, such as the Atlanta and Richmond Fed surveys, are released after the NAPM and are of little value. The purchasing managers' reports are measured like the national NAPM - 50% marks the breakeven line between an expanding and contracting manufacturing sector. For the Philadelphia and Atlanta Fed indexes, 0 is the breakeven mark.
These surveys can be of some help in forecasting the national NAPM - particularly the Philadelphia and Chicago surveys which are more closely watched due to their timeliness and the fact that these regions represent a reasonable cross section of national manufacturing activities.

Consumer Confidence
Conference Board Consumer Confidence
• Importance (A-F): This release merits a B-.
• Source: The Conference Board.
• Release Time: 10:00 ET on the last Tuesday of the month (data for current month).
• Raw Data Available At: http://www.tcb-indicators.org/.
The Conference Board conducts a monthly survey of 5000 households to ascertain the level of consumer confidence. The report can occasionally be helpful in predicting sudden shifts in consumption patterns, though most small changes in the index are just noise. Only index changes of at least five points should be considered significant. The index consists of two subindexes - consumers' appraisal of current conditions and their expectations for the future. Expectations make up 60% of the total index, with current conditions accounting for the other 40%. The expectations index is typically seen as having better leading indicator qualities than the current conditions index.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
• Importance (A-F): This release merits a B-.
• Source: The University of Michigan.
• Release Time: Preliminary: 10:00 ET on the second Friday of the month (data for current month); Final: 10:00 ET on the fourth Friday of the month (data for current month).
The Michigan index is almost identical to the Conference Board index, though there are two monthly releases, a preliminary and final reading. Like the Conference Board index, it has two subindexes - expectations and current conditions. The expectations index is a component of the Conference Board's Leading Indicators index.
Industrial Production
• Importance (A-F): This release merits a B-.
• Source: Federal Reserve.
• Release Time: 9:15 ET around the 15th of the month (data for month prior).
• Raw Data Available At: http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/releases/G17/Current/.
The index of Industrial Production is a fixed-weight measure of the physical output of the nation's factories, mines, and utilities. Manufacturing production, the largest component of the total, can be accurately predicted using total manufacturing hours worked from the employment report. One of the bigger wildcards in this report is utility production, which can be quite volatile due to swings in the weather. Severe hot or cold spells can boost production as increased heating/cooling needs drive utility production up.
In addition to production, this monthly report also provides a measure of capacity utilization. Though the rate of capacity utilization is seen as a critical gauge of the slack available in the economy, the market does not completely trust this measure. Capacity is very difficult to measure, and the Fed essentially assumes that growth in capacity in any given year follows a straight line. One can therefore predict the capacity utilization rate quite accurately based on the assumption for production growth. The 85% mark is seen as a key barrier over which inflationary pressures are generated, but given revisions to these data and the difficulties with capacity measurement, the 85% mark should be viewed cautiously. It would be appropriate to look for corroborating inflation indications from commodity prices and vendor deliveries.

PPI: Producer Price Index
• Importance (A-C): This release merits a B-.
• Source: Bureau of Labor statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
• Release Time: Around the 11th of each month at 8:30 ET for the prior month.
• Raw Data Available At: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.toc.htm.
The Producer Price Index measures prices of goods at the wholesale level. There are three broad subcategories within PPI: crude, intermediate, and finished. The market tracks the finished goods index most closely, as it represents prices for goods that are ready for sale to the end user. Goods prices at the crude and intermediate stages of production often provide an indication of coming (dis)inflationary pressures, but the closer you get to crude goods, the more that these prices track commodity prices which are already available in traded indexes such as the CRB (Commodity Research Bureau).
At all stages of production, the market places more emphasis on the index excluding food and energy, referred to as the core rate. Food and energy prices tend to be quite volatile and obscure trends in the underlying inflation rate. Though the market reaction is determined by the month/month changes, year/year changes are also noted by analysts. The index is not revised on a monthly basis, but annual revisions to seasonal adjustment factors can produce small adjustments to past releases.
Initial Claims
• Importance (A-F): This release merits a C+.
• Source: The Employment and Training Administration of the Department of Labor.
• Release Time: 8:30 ET each Thursday (data for week ended prior Saturday).
• Raw Data Available At: http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/main.htm.
Initial jobless claims measure the number of filings for state jobless benefits. This report provides a timely, but often misleading, indicator of the direction of the economy, with increases (decreases) in claims potential signalling slowing (accelerating) job growth. On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile, and many analysts therefore track a four week moving average to get a better sense of the underlying trend. It typically takes a sustained move of at least 30K in claims to signal a meaningful change in job growth.
There are two other statistics in this report -- the number of people receiving state benefits and the insured unemployment rate; neither is watched closely by the market. Some analysts track the number of people receiving state benefits from month to month as a guide for job growth, though this series has a poor track record in predicting the monthly employment report. The insured unemployment rate changes little on a weekly basis and is never a factor for the market.
Personal Income and Consumption
• Importance (A-F): This release merits a C+.
• Source: The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Department of Commerce.
• Release Time: 8:30 ET around the first business day of the month (data for two months prior).
• Raw Data Available At: http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/rels.htm -- see personal income release.
Personal income measures income from all sources. The largest component of total income is wages and salaries, a figure which can be estimated using payrolls and earnings data from the employment report. Beyond that, there are many other categories of income, including rental income, government subsidy payments, interest income, and dividend income. Personal income is a decent indicator of future consumer demand, but it is not perfect. Recessions usually occur when consumers stop spending, which then drives down income growth. Looking solely at income growth, one may therefore miss the turning point when consumers stop spending.
The income report also includes a section covering personal consumption expenditures, also known as PCE. PCE is comprised of three categories: durables, nondurables, and services. The retail sales report will provide a good read on durable and nondurable consumption, while service purchases tend to grow at a fairly steady pace, making this a relatively predictable report, and ranking it well below retail sales in terms of market importance.
International Trade
• Importance (A-F): This release merits a C+.
• Source: The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Department of Commerce.
• Release Time: 8:30 ET around the 20th of the month (data for two months prior).
• Raw Data Available At: http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/www/press.html.
The trade report is most widely watched for trends in the overall trade balance. But trends in both exports and imports of goods and services bear watching as well. The export data in particular are important to watch for indications that a strengthening competitive position at home and/or strengthening economies overseas are boosting U.S. growth. Imports provide an indication of domestic demand, but given the severe lag of this report relative to other consumption indicators, it is not particularly valuable for this purpose.
The volatility in the monthly trade balance can play an important role in GDP forecasts. Net exports are a relatively volatile component of GDP, and the trade report provides the only early clues to the net export performance each quarter.
Business Inventories
• Importance (A-F): This release merits a C-.
• Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.
• Release Time: 08:30 ET around the 15th of the month (data for two months prior).
• Raw Data Available At: http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/mtistext.html.
The business inventories report includes sales and inventory statistics from all three stages of the manufacturing process (manufacturing, wholesale, and retail). But by the time it is released all three of its sales components and two of its inventory components have already been reported. Because retail inventory is the only new piece of information it contains, the market usually ignores the business inventories report.
However, sometimes retail inventories swing enough to change the aggregate inventory profile. This may affect the GDP outlook. When it does, the report can elicit a small market reaction.
The aggregate sales figures are dated and they say little about personal consumption. They are actually a good coincident indicator, but the market is far more interested in forward-looking statistics.
The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio measures the number of months it would take to deplete existing inventory at current sales rates. A relatively low (high) I/S ratio may mean that manufacturers will have to build up (draw down) inventory levels. Depending on the strength of final demand and the degree to which recent inventory changes have been intended or unintended, this can have an effect on the industrial production outlook. Note that this information is much more useful to market economists than it is to other market participants.