Fall for Everything
| Hello. I am George Haralson, founder of Assetline Commodities LLC. In my 7 years as a leader in the commodities market, I have found that the best way to successfully advocate to my clients has been through making markets by selling options. In those seven years, I have seen "smart people" come into the markets like conquering kings only to leave with their tail between their legs. The truth is, the numbers don't lie; 95% of all retail traders lose their entire investment in less than 90 days. This newsletter and my methodology of selling premium come from my personal and professional experience in the business, working with the contrarian 5%. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| In this newsletter you will learn tips, tactics, and straightforward trading ideas designed to help you get an edge on the 95% by selling options that have a high probability of expiring worthless. Let me be clear: just like the lottery, sometimes the public wins. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in commodities trading. At Assetline Commodities, we believe that sharing our methodology along with tips and tactics straight from the trading pits will equip you with the tools to take advantage of the opportunities commodity options markets give day after day, week after week, month after month. Let's get started! Below are the opportunities we see on the horizon for this month. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fall for Everything | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| In recent years, the months of September and October have offered investors a bit of schooling. Some of the sharpest drops since the onset of the financial crisis have hit in the autumnal season. This year looks to be a little more optimistic, but there are still some potential bumps in the road. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| This month and next, investors have a lot of political maneuvering to look out for. The headlines are going to get hotter as the air gets cooler towards Election Day, which can make it easy to overlook other news. Keep your eyes on the background - the candidates are going to have a lot of talking points on the economy, but that shouldn't lure you away from the actual growth and contraction. Serious issues are still at home and abroad. Keep a sharp eye on the latest out of Europe. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Germany may be angling for positives on some of its economic reports, but the fact is that the rest of the Euro Zone hangs around it like a big ugly albatross. Take the recent industrial orders as an example. The best thing they seem to be able to say are that orders from other countries appear to have "stabilized." (1) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| As it stands, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) suggests that Germany will see a recession in the coming months, adding further pressure on the Euro regions. Borrowing costs in Spain and Italy are reaching unbelievable levels, and the European Central Bank (ECB) is going to have to lead the charge to help each nation in turn. This burden, according to the OECD, is likely to bring the economy of Germany (and France and Italy) towards contraction - somewhere in the neighborhood of a 0.2 percent shrinkage. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bond buying isn't likely to keep the starving wolves at bay this winter either - the ECB and banking contemporaries are going to have to find some kind of policy foundation that leads to reforms to help sustain growth, otherwise they are just polishing wood on the Titanic. The next few weeks are going to be critical, and as goes Europe so go the markets. A lack of confidence spiraling off any Western nation is sure to seize the confidence of the average investor in turn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20120906/eu-germany-economy/ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Getting Technical | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Past Performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Chart courtesy of Gecko Software. |
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| Hard Asset News Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| News and upcoming events | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Volatility Analysis | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| To get a snapshot of market volatility, traders can take a quick glance at the CBOE's Volatility Index (VIX). Popularized as the "investor fear gauge," the VIX uses implied volatility from options on the S&P500 to project the expected percent change in the index for the next 30 days. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The news of ECB bond buying was enough to temper the recent spike in the VIX. The perceived weakness in the global economy stemming from the lingering European crisis was enough to send volatility to 32%. Despite the drop following the ECB meeting, VIX futures remain elevated as investor confidence over time is limited. the chance that China is set for a cooling off period in their growth, and it might be enough to send the VIX on another leg higher. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Past Performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. C... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Spreads of Note | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| After recent ECB debt buying programs, it's only natural that the Spanish and Italian bonds would rise as investors increased their risk appetites. Portugal saw their two year notes climb amid speculation that their debt might be among the targeted notes for the ECB purchase program. Notes at the short end in Spain and Italy will likely remain in focus. Interesting is the potential for US bonds to tip off their pedestal as Spain and Italy deliver enticing yields on 10 year bonds, upwards of 5 - 6 percent. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Trade Opportunities | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Opportunities in currencies are still likely targets heading through September. The potential for weakness in the US dollar exists on any employment issues, but the latest news suggests buoyant hiring, which will probably translate well for the dollar against the euro. Look for trades that could see a bump as risk appetites increase - the short side of the Japanese yen is also worth a look. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| About George Haralson, Broker, CEO Assetline Commodities | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| George Haralson has been a broker since March 2005. He is a Series 3 Certified Broker and a member of the National Futures Association. He studied under experienced professional traders, read every book he could get his hands on, mastered the fundamentals necessary to excel, and learned the tricks of the trade inside and out. After four years as a broker, he launched his own company, Assetline Commodities, to educate others and give them the tools to launch successfully on their own trading paths. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| At Assetline Commodities, George is teaching his clients how to make markets in the new post crash trading environment. He's written numerous articles, hosted seminars, and created innovative training materials. Being a prolific trader with a knack for spotting winning trends, George has coached hundreds of clients through the process. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| George's specialties include Options, Market Making, Portfolio Margining, and U.S. Treasuries and Foreign Exchange. He is currently launching a Portfolio Margining program to teach an army of Market Makers in the Commodity Options space, with a focus on the financial sector in the U.S. Treasuries and Foreign Exchange. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| About Assetline Commodities | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Assetline Commodities is more than just a Commodities Brokerage. We are a hub of specialized, targeted resources for clients who want to trade for a living. At Assetline Commodities, we equip you with the tools it takes to make a career out of trading. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| We are traders first, and our experience on both sides gives us the unique ability to guide our clients in the right direction. Successful traders have one thing in common: they know the markets they trade inside and out. Our mission is to empower our clients with the tools, support, and customer service needed to trade successfully. We extensively research commodity markets to bring our clients the right tools, knowledge, experience, and know-how to help you obtain success and control risk as an independent investor. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Disclaimer: Trading in futures and options involves a substantial degree of a risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Fundamental factors, seasonal and weather trends, daily news, and other current events may have already been factored into the markets. It is important to note that options and futures markets are separate and distinct and do not necessarily respond in the same way to similar market conditions. Option prices do not move in lockstep with changes in the underlying futures market price. Some options trading strategies have an unlimited risk of loss. Strategies using combinations of positions such as spreads and straddles are no less risky than taking straight long or short futures or options positions. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Assetline Commodities, the publisher, and/or its affiliates, staff or anyone associated with Assetline Commodities do not guarantee profits or pre-determined loss points, and are not held monetarily responsible for the trading losses of others (subscribers or otherwise). Any copy, reprint, broadcast or distribution of these reports of any kind is prohibited without the expressed written consent of the publisher. Source: http://assetlinecommodities.com/news_beta/images/newsletter/2012-09/ |
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