Forex4you Technical Analysis 15 April 2013

AUD/USD: Meeting The 200-Day MA

The aussie rallied up strongly to the monthly pivot at 1.0565 and met tough resistance at that level. From there it has sold off heavily today, moving back inside the multi-month triangle. So strong is the sell-off today that the pair has fallen to the level of the 200-day MA at 1.0390. This is likely to offer substantial support and we may see some sort of bounce although currently momentum appears to be to the downside. There is substantial support below with the 50-day MA and another monthly pivot at 1.0340. The pair would have to break decisively below these to signal more downside: then targeting the 1.0115 lows.

EUR/USD: Consolidating - Downside Potential

Eurodollar is falling within a range-bound consolidation with a ceiling at the 1.3130 highs and bottom at the monthly pivot at 1.3045. Currently it is moving down towards the pivot and it will probably reach it. The 50-day MA at 1.3100 may also provide resistance to further upside. Overall I see the most probable outcome an eventual break lower. This would be a sort of Elliot 5th wave of the move down from the 1.37 highs, targeting the 1.2745 lows. A break below 1.3030-25 would give confirmation.

GBP/USD: Technical Update

Cable is selling-off and will probably continue until it meets the 50-day MA at 1.5250. If it breaches that then major support lies at 1.5225, and a break below that could signal another wave lower, possible a final Elliot 5th down, of the wave which began falling at 1.63. This would be expected to re-touch the 1.4830 lows at the very least. Alternatively given we have not yet fulfilled the target for the trend-line break a recovery is possible, with a move above the 1.5365 confirming and targeting 1.5525.

Analysis By: Joaquin Monfort, Forex4you Analyst

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