Forex4you Technical Analysis 17 April 2013

AUD/USD: Change of Trend

The aussie's break below the previous swing low at 1.0348 was key in establishing a reversal from bull to bear trend. The sell-off continues to the 50-day MA where the pair is currently consolidating . It will probably continue lower and retest the 1.0290 lows and then perhaps consolidate further before the next leg down. There is a possibility of move all the way to the 1.0115 lows again eventually too.

GBP/USD: Possible Top Forming

Cable's recovery has stalled and it has fallen into a support zone between 1.5240-1.5260. It is still too early to say whether this is the start of a bigger fall but the short-term looks bearish and we may be at the neckline of a possible head and shoulders top. Nevertheless the pair will probably consolidate at the present support level or even maybe bounce a little. A breach below 1.5230 would be needed to confirm a continuation down, perhaps to 1.5155 where support from a trend-line kicks-in. A bullish recovery from here looks unlikely, but upside would probably reach the resistance zone in the 1.5350s.

EUR/USD: Spike Higher Fading

Despite yesterday's spike higher the pair is currently experiencing some weakness. It will probably correct back to support from the top of the range and the 100-day MA at 1.3140. For a stronger bearish move I would want to see a decisive breach of the consolidation lows at 1.3020, to then target 1.2830. A continuation higher, on the other hand would be confirmed by a break above the 1.3201 spike highs first, with the next target at 1.3280 at the level of the monthly pivot.

Analysis By: Joaquin Monfort, Forex4you Analyst

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