Phantom Jobs

Friday’s employment data was interesting; wasn’t it?  I think it’s safe to say that it shocked everyone but the politicians.  Like Santa Claus delivering presents to children, the Bureau of Lies & Statistics (BLS) delivered a shocking present for politicians before the election.

The Bureau of Lies & Statistics, a name that I have used for years and not due to this data, reported that the unemployment rate magically plummeted to 7.8%.  This report surprised the former CEO of GE, Jack Welch, so much that he tweeted “Unbelievable jobs numbers...these Chicago guys will do anything…can't debate so change numbers.”  Even if Mr. Welch is a Romney supporter, this tweet like the BLS data, is surprising.  

To be sure, there are conspiracy theories and political axes to grind over this number; however, I don’t agree with either.  I simply believe the numbers are so tortured that they will scream anything at any time.  In a word they are: unreliable.

Analysts at Jeffries agree with me in a recent report “…Taken at face value, the household survey would suggest that economic activity has been rocking-and-rolling and the labor market is bursting at the seams with jobs. We know that has not been the case, hence, the household data is difficult to believe and we are dismissive to the universal strength of the household survey data.

It would truly be wonderful if these numbers were believable, but they are not believable.

The crazy inconsistencies from month to month, as well as the INSANELY LARGE revisions (some over 1 MILLION in just one month) reflect the different samples used in the two surveys; one focuses on households the other on businesses.  The so-called establishment survey has a vast sample size of 486,000 worksites, whereas the household survey covers just 60,000 homes.  

What have the politicians been crowing about recently?  Of course, they love the household portion of the jobs data now that it suits them (the other side of the isle would be doing the same – I hope I don’t have to remind my well-educated readers of that!).  

For the conspiracy theorists among us, however, I may have an idea as to where a portion of the pop came from.  For the first time in 22 straight years, the BLS declared that the segment of workers in the 20 to 24 year age group was positive.  Said another way, every year since this metric has been compiled it has been a drag on the jobs data – until now.  

The young adults in this 20-24 year age category decided, for the first time ever, to quit their lives as professional college students and enter the workforce…with a GDP growth level of a recessionary 1.7%.  Does this make sense?
The odd thing though is that student loan data continues to skyrocket, especially during this jobs report.  Student loans from the government, as well as sub-prime auto loans from the government, rose another $14,000,000,000.00, which does not correlate with the BLS assumption that the heretofore professional student gave up his nerdy ways for the massively abundant jobs scene.  

I shall remind you again that the GDP is 1.7% and falling.  Tortured numbers from the Bureau of Lies & Statistics – indeed!

Question: if Visa, Amex, and Master Card, as well as hotels, restaurants, business and more can track hundreds of $$billions in transactions – DAILY – IN REAL TIME – why can’t the government track 100k jobs over a full month’s time?  

Answer: if it used real-time tracking software, it won’t be able to torture the data.  Moreover, those in power (regardless of party) never want to know the real unemployment rate, which is near 16%.

Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”

Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banking mafia.

Larry Levin
President & Founder- Trading Advantage
TradingAdvantage.com



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