Providio's Daily Futures Market Commentary for 8/27/2012

Providio's Daily Futures Market Commentary for 8/27/2012

HEADLINE COMMENTARY:
27August
Light action on very light Volume with Tropical Storm Isaac threatening off the Gulf Coast.
However, even though the economic calendar seems to be ramping up this week (see below), most of the markets' attention focuses on the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium. More specifically, on Fed Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech on Friday morning, then ECB Draghi's panel participation on Saturday.

OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD MARKETS:
Overbought Direction 0-100 Silver Falling 91 Gold Falling 80 Euro$ Rising 75 Bund (10yr) Rising 74 Ten Year Rising 70 Bonds Rising 70 Oversold Direction 0-100 Sugar Falling 22 NatGas Falling 27 Aussie Falling 28 Dollar Index Rising 29
U.S. Economic Data releases-All times Eastern:
http://www.bloomberg...nomic-calendar/
FOREIGN Economic Data releases-All times Eastern:
http://online.wsj.co...icCalendar.html   THIS WEEK'S REPORTS:

Tuesday, August 28:
US:
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
Redbook
S&P Case-Shiller HPI   
Consumer Confidence
Richmond Fed Mfg Survey   
State Street Investor Confidence Survey

Foreign:
Swiss-UBS Consumption Index
EU-M3 Money Supply
Wednesday, August 29:

US:
MBA Mortgage Applications Index  
GDP
Corp. Profits
Pending Home Sales Index
EIA Petro Stocks
Beige Book

Foreign:
Germany-CPI
France-Business Climate Indicator
Swiss KOF Swiss Leading Indicator
Italy-Retail Sales
Canada-IPPI
Japan-Retail Sales
Thursday. August 30:

US:
Chains Store Sales
Jobless Claims
Personal Income and Spending
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
EIA-NatGas Storage
KC Fed Mfg Index
US Money Supply

Foreign:
Germany-Unemployment Rate
UK-M4  Money Supply
EU-- EC Economic Sentiment
Japan-CPI
Japan-Household Spending Japan-Unemployment Rate
Japan-Industrial Production


Friday, August 31:
US:
Chicago PMI
Consumer Sentiment
Ben Bernanke Speaks
Factory Orders
Farm Prices

Foreign:
Germany-Retail Sales
Italy-Unemployment Rate
Italy-CPI
Italy-PPI
EU-HICP Flash
EU-Unemployment Rate
Canada-GDP
Canada-Monthly GDP

CURRENCIES:
Futures Last Trade: Sep: 17Sep
Options Last Trade: Sep: 07Sep; Oct: 05Oct; Nov: 09Nov; Dec: 07Dec
Currencies:  
Currencies: 27August Outside a modestly material move lower in the Aussie, we aren't seeing any real movement at all in the rest of our tracked Currency markets.

We assume this will remain the case until we hear something meaningful out of the Jackson Hole conference. Bernanke is due to speak Friday and the ECB's Mario Draghi, conveniently, on Saturday.
We keep our recent comment of:
Despite all the excitement, we continue to ask, if little ole Greece is back in the money line, and that issue isn't even close to being "resolved", what happens when the ECB/Eurozone has to deal with Italy, Spain and then finally, France?Again, and still, where are the Germans on this plan? They're the ones with real money to pay for this "plan". We are skeptical at best of the moves as they sit.

Aussie: 27Aug
Support/Resistance levels
1.0600: Psychological level and just above the 8/9 peak (1.0578)
1.0571: +2STD above 21-day moving average.
1.0500: Psychological level and recent inflection point
1.0464: 21-day moving average
1.0400: Psychological level.
1.0396: 02Aug low.
1.0358: -2STD below 21-day moving average
1.0325: Late April highs for September contract.
1.0253: 200-day moving average
1.0125: 25July low.0.9565: 01June low, traces back to support from last November.  
Comment: The Aussie remains under modest but longer-term pressure. Look for any meaningful sell-offs to meet support near the 200-day moving average.All our indicators point lower.
Seasonal Snapshot (cash):  The 15&19yr patterns fall out of bed throughout August. The 5yr weakens until 16Aug.

British: 27AugSupport/Resistance levels
1.5876: +2STD above the 21-day moving average
1.5800: Psychological level and support from late March through mid-April. This is also near the 50% retracement of the late April thorough late May sell-off.
1.5773: 20June high & just above the 7/27 high (1.5767)
1.5716: 200-day moving average
1.5700: psychological level
1.5693: 21-day moving average
1.5515: Rising trend line from the 01June low.
1.5500: Psychological level and support level since 6/13
1.5509: -2STD below 21-day moving average
1.5250: support region where market has bounced since Oct 2011
Comment: As we have noted, the wide consolidation that has been in place since May's losses has rendered our technical indicators lacking in directional predictability.
We continue to "nibble at the edges" since the currency seems to be stuck inside of a consolidation range, generally bound by +-2StD Bollinger Bands.
Seasonal Snapshot (cash):  All three patterns are in a downward bias until 12Aug.

Canadian 27Aug
Support/Resistance levels
1.0168: 27Apr high & 2STD above 21-day moving average
1.0155: 8/21 high trade
1.0090: 8/9-8/14 resistance, 8/16-8/21 support area
1.0050: 8/8-8/22 support and inflection point
1.0040: 21-day moving average
1.0000: Psychological resistance
0.9985: 7/31-8/6 resistance, then support inflection point
0.9915: 8/2 settlement, low settlement before rally to 8/21 highs
0.9904: 200-day moving average.
0.9912: -2STD below 21-day moving average
0.9568: 04June low
Comment: Our indicators point to likely lower action. However, our secondaries show some instability there, so this may be a pause before the market moves materially higher. If this is the case, look for a move to near 1.250. A material move lower indicates other economic effects are at play.
Seasonal Snapshot (cash):  All three patterns fall until 11Aug, then consolidate until the end of August.

Dollar Index: 27Aug
Support/Resistance levels
90.35: 38.2% retracement of the July 2001 to April 2008 decline. The market came close to this level twice: Mar 2009 (89.71) & June 2010 (88.80).
88.80: 07June 2010 high.
84.00: major psychological level and not far below the late July highs
83.44: +2 STD above the 21-day moving average.
82.39: 21-day moving average
82.48: Trend indicator level (turning)
81.365: -2STD below the 21-day moving average and support level dating back to 6/18
81.20: Inflection point dating back to 5/15. Major support level
81.00: Psychological round number support and just below 5/21 low
80.75: 200-day moving average
78.70: late April lows and support dating back to March 1st.
Comment: Our main Momentum indicator remains materially negative, but the ROC is shifting higher. Trend remains solidly negative. If this is merely a pause, the DX is well set up for a material move lower.
There are still other open gaps to fill all the way down to 79.615 (04May).
Seasonal Snapshot: The 5yr's weakness until early Aug is much more pronounced than the 15&30yr's consolidation with a downward bias.

Euro-FX:  27Aug
Support/Resistance levels
1.3000: Major resistance level dating to November 2011.
1.2885: 200-day moving average
1.2750: 18June high and 2nd in a series of lower highs since falling below 1.3000
1.2522: +2STD above 21-day moving average.
1.2400: Psychological level and right at our Trend indicator
1.2349: 21-day moving average.
1.2176: -2STD below 21-day moving average & general support level dating back to mid-July
1.2050: 24July low.
1.2000: Psychological level.
Comment: A continuing test of the +2 STD over the now rising (albeit slowly) 21-day moving average and subsequent modest retreat.
This moving level continues to act as resistance to further moves higher. The technicals all point higher.
Again, keep risk controls tight. Moves have tended to lurch against the prevailing "trend".
Seasonal Snapshot:  All three patterns head lower: 5yr until 18Aug; 15&30yr until 11Aug.

Yen: 27Aug
Support/Resistance levels
1.3145: Feb pre-intervention highs.
1.2895: 01June high and just below the 1.2900 psychological resistance
1.2857: +2STD above 21-day moving average.
1.2800: Major psychological and observed resistance level
1.2718: 21-day moving average.
1.2700: 29June high.
1.2658: 200-day moving average.
1.2579: -2STD below the 21-day moving average.
1.2500: Observed support through July's trading
1.2410: Support level tested multiple times from 5/2-6/25
1.2250: April trading inflection point
Comment:We maintain the 1.2800 level remains as the material overhead resistance.
Action has been consolidating at modestly lower lees than the FOMC minutes "correction" as the market awaits policy pronouncements from Jackson Hole. Volume has fallen off a cliff in this last week of "Summer".Seasonal Snapshot:
After a short downtick until 07Aug, all three patterns chug higher until late October.