The USD firmed up at the start of yesterday’s trading, as Chinese stocks increased worries about global growth and put pressure on stocks around the world. The USD normally serves as a safe haven, along with other low-yielding currencies such as the JPY.
The JPY increased to a 7-week high against the USD and gained versus other currencies yesterday buoyed by the decisive opposition victory in Japanese elections and as declines in global equities stoked risk aversion. The main opposition Democratic Party of Japan claimed the helm of the world's second-largest economy, winning 308 of the 480 seats in the lower house of parliament, compared with 115 seats previously.
Analysts believe that the JPY may fall from near a five-week high against the EUR on re-energized demand for higher yields before a report forecast to show U.S. manufacturing expanded last month for the first time since January 2008.
The CAD fell to the lowest level in almost two weeks after stocks and crude oil declined, reducing the appeal of currencies tied to risk, and as traders bought the USD to cover short positions. The CAD remained weaker after Statistics Canada reported that the nation’s economy contracted faster than expected in the April-to-June period as the country’s first recession since 1991 is proving deeper than thought, even as growth in June indicates the contraction is nearing an end.
The USD gave up gains against the EUR to hit session lows after data showed business activity in the U.S. Midwest picked up at a faster pace than expected in August, although the details of the report were less upbeat. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago business barometer rose to 50.0 from 43.4 in July.
New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley said it is much too early to discuss limiting the central bank's long-term security purchases while the U.S. economic recovery remains fragile. Dudley's comments show a divergence of views on the Fed's interest-rate setting Federal Open Market Committee. Richmond Fed Bank President Jeffrey Lacker said last week the Fed should consider curtailing its purchases of $1.45 trillion of mortgage agency debt by the end of the year.
In economic news today, expect July’s Construction Spending, the August ISM Index, and Auto and Truck Sales for August. And in earnings, look for Gander Mountain Co., America's Car-Mart, Inc., Plato Learning, Take-Two Interactive, and Vivendi.
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Happy Trading,
James Dicks
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