The USD was up against the EUR yesterday ahead of the G20 meeting being held in Pittsburgh this week. It also gained a bit of ground as investors seemed to be chased away from risky trades ahead of today’s FOMC meeting. The dollar also was higher after news from the Conference Board that reported the U.S. recession is bottoming out and a recovery is near. The index of leading economic indicators rose 0.6% last month. Analysts predicted the index would rise 0.7% in August.
Federal Reserve officials Fed will meet today and tomorrow behind closed doors to assess the latest evidence on the economy. The Federal Open Market Committee statement is expected around 2:15 pm (ET) tomorrow. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made a splash last week when he said the recession is very likely over. Analysts believe that the Fed will do its best to stay out of the limelight out of fear that any steps they might take could be construed as tightening policy.
The Canadian dollar weakened for a second consecutive day as the prices of crude oil and gold fell and global stocks declined, making currencies tied to economic growth less appealing. The CAD appreciated 13 percent this year against the USD on speculation the global economy is showing signs of recovering from the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
Meantime, Canada’s Prime Minister, Stephen Harper, said the recession in Canada is only over in a technical sense because the recovery is extremely fragile and there are still problems in the job market. He said that even though the U.S. Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, announced last week that the recession is over, he believes that only in the technical sense. He said that as long as Canadian families continue to be challenged economically, the recession is not over.
The AUD and the NZD fell for a third day versus the USD as a drop in stocks, oil and gold lessened the appeal of currencies linked to commodities and economic growth. Increased demand for the USD before the FOMC meeting also had an effect on the currency market.
On the U.S. economic calendar today watch for the FHFA U.S. Housing Price Index for July. And the 2nd quarter earnings calendar is slowing down as we approach the end of the earnings season. Today there are a number of companies scheduled to report their earnings including; Carnival Corporation, Financial Federal Corp, ConAgra Foods, CarMax, Progress Software, H.B. Fuller Company, and FreightCar America.
Happy Trading,
James Dicks
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