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The Forex Daily Digest – September 4, 2009

The dollar turned higher after an early bout of weakness. The dollar opened under pressure as investors briefly abandoned safe-haven positions after a leading economic forecaster grew more confident.

Initial jobless claims fell last week but claims lasting more than a week increased. The data are another precursor to the monthly employment data due from the government later this morning. In another report, the Institute for Supply Management said its nonmanufacturing index came in at 48.4 in August, an improvement from a 46.4 reading in July but still a level that suggests the sector is contracting. And, monthly chain-store sales results suggest many U.S. consumers continue to be unwilling to splurge.

Elsewhere, the EUR gave back early gains against most major counterparts after the European Central Bank kept interest rates at a record low 1% and said the period of contraction has come to an end in the euro zone. The ECB also lifted its growth and inflation forecasts.

The JPY traded near a seven-week high against the EUR and USD as a report showing companies eliminated more jobs in August than economists had anticipated encouraged investors to retreat. The JPY rose against the CAD on reduced demand for higher-yielding assets. The CAD climbed to a 2-day high against the USD as oil held steady above $68 today. The loonie also edged higher against the EUR and the JPY.

The AUD and NZD both gained as Asian equities pared some of their losses, thus boosting speculation that investors will buy the South Pacific nations’ higher-yielding assets. The AUD gained for a second day after figures showed the nation’s economic growth suddenly accelerated last quarter and South Korea today said its economy expanded at a faster pace than initially estimated.

A senior lawmaker in the new Japanese ruling party said that Tokyo should not step into currency markets unless exchange rates move abnormally, adding that a strong yen is good for Japan as it curbs import costs. The Democratic Party of Japan, which won Sunday's election by a landslide, has pledged to put more money into the hands of households in a bid to shift an export-reliant economy toward one that places more emphasis on domestic demand.

Wrapping up the week is normally the most important economic report of the month – the Non-Farm Payrolls report. Economists expect this month’s report to be a little better but not by much. Also, look for the Unemployment Rate to be released (9.5% is expected), plus the Average Hourly Workweek figures and Hourly Earnings. All these reports are scheduled for release at 8:30 am (Eastern Time).

Friday is always the slowest earnings reporting day but H&R Block, RG Berry Company and Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods are scheduled to release their earnings today.

Have a wonderful weekend and I will see you back here on Monday with another Forex daily Digest!

Happy Trading,
James Dicks

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