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The Forex Daily Digest – August 17, 2009

The JPY was broadly firmer today after weak economic data out of the U.S clouded the outlook for a quick global recovery, prompting further profit taking in commodity-linked currencies after their exceptional rally. Japan’s currency advanced against all 16 major counterparts on expectations that the world’s second-largest economy climbed out of its worst postwar recession last quarter. The EUR fell against the JPY for a second day on speculation Asian stocks will extend a drop in global equities, decreasing demand for higher-yielding assets.

The AUD and NZD fell for a second day as futures signaled equities will decline after U.S. stocks slid for the first week in five, damping investor appetite for higher-yielding stocks. The currencies also weakened against the JPY before Japan reports second-quarter gross domestic product. The AUD dropped by the most in more than five weeks on Aug. 14th after an unexpected drop in U.S. consumer confidence prompted investors to sell riskier currencies.

The CAD dropped for a second straight week as losses in stocks and commodities overshadowed government reports that spurred speculation the recession may be easing. The CAD, which advanced the most against its U.S. counterpart last month among the 16 most-traded currencies, fell the most among all 16 this week. Canada’s government bonds rose last week, pushing the yield on 10-year notes down 13 basis points to 3.48 percent. The Bank of Canada auctioned C$3.2 billion ($3 billion) of 10-year securities, with an average yield of 3.527 percent.

Freddie Mac announced on Friday that it plans to sell $2.0 billion of reference bills today. The scheduled offerings include $1 billion of three-month bills due Nov. 16, 2009 to be sold today and settle on tomorrow (Tuesday); and $1 billion of six-month bills due Feb. 16, 2010 to be sold today and settle tomorrow. The bills will be sold over the Internet in a Dutch auction. In such uniform price auctions, successful bidders pay only the price of the lowest accepted bid rather than the actual price as in a conventional multiple-price auction.

On the economic front this week look for the Empire State Manufacturing Index for August. Last month this report came in at a negative .55% and this month analysts are anticipating a positive 2.20. Other reports this week in the U.S. include Building Permits, the Producer Price Index, Housing Starts, Leading Indicators, Philly Fed, and Existing Homes Sales. These reports along with the weekly Crude Inventories and, the Initial Jobless Claims Report are scheduled for release this week.

Some of the major earnings this week will be released from Home Depot, Deere & Company, Lowe's Companies, Target, Agilent Technologies, Analog Devices Inc., Cardinal Health, Hewlett-Packard, Saks, BJ Wholesale, Limited Brands, Barnes & Noble, H.J. Heinz Company, and Intuit.

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Have a profitable trading week,

James Dicks

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