The USD fell to its lowest point this year against the EUR, giving up gains after a drop in U.S. stocks and a poor report on the U.S. services sector. The USD will be the major focus, as the Bank of England and European Central Bank hold rate meetings ahead of the New York stock market opening. Analysts do not expect rate moves from either the ECB or Bank of England. The U.K., which has had more favorable housing and ISM data recently, is unlikely to take any rate action or say much at all. The Bank of England, on the other hand, could say it is “pausing” its quantitative easing program.
China’s central bank warned that monetary easing by developed nations threatens to cause “severe” inflation and currency volatility. The People’s Bank of China announced that “failure to manage the degree of easing may lead to concerns about mid- and long-term inflation and exchange-rate stability.” China, which is the owner of $801.5 billion of U.S. Treasuries, pressured the U.S. at a summit in Washington DC last month for economic polices to protect the value of the USD.
Market strategists believe the USD’s contrary relationship to investors' appetite for risky assets has resurfaced. The USD has lost ground as stocks posted a solid comprehensive improvement and investors hurried into risky assets. Reduced risk appetite has tended to support the USD, and to a greater extent, the JPY.
The AUD fell from its 10-month high, extending declines after a U.S. report showed a contraction in service industries and added to speculation the currency’s earlier gains outpaced improvement in the economy. The AUD fell for the first time in five days before a report that economists predicted will show the nation’s jobless rate increased the most in six years.
On the economic calendar, look for the Initial Jobless Claims report for the week of August 1st. Tomorrow is the biggest economic day of the week when the Non-Farm Payrolls for July will be released at 8:30 am (Eastern Time). Also on the calendar on Friday are the Unemployment Rate, Average Workweek, Hourly Earnings, and the afternoon release of the Consumer Credit report for Jun.
On the earnings calendar today are Unilever, CBS Corp, the NASDAQ OMX Group, Brinker International, El Paso Corp, Frontier Oil, Deutsche Telekom, Isis Pharmaceuticals, Canadian Solar, NVIDIA, Public Storage, and DirecTV.
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