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The Forex Daily Digest – July 27, 2009

The Dow Jones Industrial Average held above the 9000 mark, but stocks finished mixed last week as shares of Microsoft and Amazon were beaten down on earnings news. Treasury prices fell on Friday, finishing up a second week of declines, as the government gets ready to auction a record amount of U.S. debt and demand for safe-haven assets declines. The Treasury Department said last week that it will offer a total of $115 billion in notes and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities next week. That comes after the government offered $104 billion in June.

As the global economy continues to muddle through a recession, the U.S. and China will begin talks today to try to find a workable solution together despite tensions over currencies, the U.S. budget deficit and the huge U.S. trade deficit with China. In the end, how well the U.S. efforts succeed could determine just how fast the economy recovers and how many U.S. jobs might be created once, and if, it does. Other issues, such as climate control and the North Korean nuclear problem, also will dominate the talks. Few expect the discussions to repair the distinct disparity between Beijing and Washington. Both governments are certain to use the time to build a less confrontational relationship.

It was a quiet day on the currency market on Friday. The USD traded lower against all of the major currencies except for the GBP which was hit by weak GDP numbers. Taking a step back, outside of the dollar rally against the JPY and the sell-off in USD/CAD pair, range trading was the prevailing direction in the Forex market last week. The EUR and GBP ended the week nearly unchanged against the USD while the AUD and NZD increased slightly. The sluggish direction in the Forex market has many traders speculating what the chances are for a breakout in the USD this week.

Most of the continuing pressure on the GBP is likely the result of concerns that relentless U.K. economic weakness may force the Bank of England into expanding quantitative easing measures, which are usually negative for a currency in the short-run at least.

The economic calendar is certainly busier than last week. Some of the major reports to watch include the June New Home Sales report, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, July’s Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods for June, the Fed’s Beige Book, a look at the second quarter Gross Domestic Product, the Employment Cost Indicator and the Chicago PMI. Also, watch for regular weekly reports like the Wednesday Crude Inventories and the Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday.

Major companies scheduled to report their earnings this week are Verizon, BP plc, Deutsche Bank, Office Depot, U.S. Steel, ConocoPhillips, Aetna, Banco Santander, Daimler AG, General Dynamics, Honda, Royal Caribbean, Visa, Barrack Gold, Colgate-Palmolive, ExxonMobil, International Paper, MasterCard, Disney, Monster Worldwide, and NYSE Euronext.

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Happy Trading -

James Dicks

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