February 2012 Blog Posts (21)

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

A break of trend-line has opened the way down to support clustered at the 1.3365 consolidation lows – although 1.3400 could be a nearer target. After that, my preference is for higher moves as we seem to be in an ending diagonal, which could reach as high as 1.3600/25 where the channel line linking the August and October tops is situated (1.3600) and perhaps the 61.8% extension of A-B (1.3627).…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The pair corrected to 1.3380 support, mentioned earlier as the first key barrier on the way down. The level turned out to be hard to breach, so trading recommenced its growth and the price now resides at 1.3430/40 level. Indicators suggest weakening "bullish strength", which gives reasons to anticipate further consolidation within 1.3470/80 – 1.3380 range. If trades fall below 1.3410/15 level, we'll be expecting a decline to 1.3380 level…

USD/JPY: Technical Analysis

The pair ascended higher than expected. Having tested 81.60/70 levels, the price pulled back down. Trading is currently carried out at 80.80/90. Most indicators are "bullish", although MACD divergence has formed, so it's now weakening, giving enough reasons to consider present decline as the beginning of a long-term and deep large-scale correction. A pullback has all chances to continue down to 79.90/60 support or even lower, to 79.00.…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD has risen strongly, breaking above key resistance from a major channel line and there is a strong possibility now of even more upside. A little bit of resistance resides at 1.3400, then there is the R2 weekly pivot at 1.3443 before substantial resistance kicks in at 1.3550 – my main longer-term upside target.…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

he EUR/USD pair has broken-out from the triangular consolidation in the opposite direction to that which was expected - rising rather than falling. Highs of 1.3342 have been reached where the R1 monthly pivot is situated but the exchange rate was repelled back down, and it may well fall to support from the top of the range and the weekly pivot at 1.3285, before mounting another rally, with further gains to 1.3380/1.3400 targeted…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The bearish analysis from yesterday still stands. The technical situation has not altered given the sideways market activity. There is still a head and shoulders pattern at the highs – with a smaller pattern on the 30min, still resistance from the bottom of a major channel and the gap from Monday remains unfilled. The pair will probably fall to 1.3160, filling the gap and then perhaps to the larger H&S neckline at 1.3025.…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Earlier analysis confirmed - the price has ascended towards the uptrend channel (blue dashed) line and is currently testing its strength as resistance. Trading is carried out at 1.3260 level. With no significant changes made to the structure, previous forecasts still apply - growth can continue up to 1.3310/05 level, without making any harm to the "bearish" potential. Growth above 1.3320/25 level will indicate possible ascension towards new…

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EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Forecasts, expecting further decline to 1.3040/00 level confirmed. The price is currently testing 1.3000 support, mentioned earlier as the key barrier on the way down. Indicators are "bearish", so the above mentioned level may be breached anytime soon. If it happens, we'll have good reasons to anticipate a medium-term reversal down with the next targets found at 1.2900/10 and then at 1.2830/40 level. It's also worth noting, that the…

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EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The price failed to hold above 1.3300 level, so the price stayed within 1.3300- 1.3250 consolidation range. Trading is currently carried out at 1.3270/80 level. Indicators are neutral, suggesting further range trading with a possible extension of current consolidation range down to 1.3200/1.3190 levels. At the same time, the uptrend is still considered to be dominating and growth to 1.3420/30 targets is also possible. 1.3040/00 support…

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EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD has rallied to the underside of a major multi-month down-sloping channel where it has encounter resistance and is currently pulling back. The correction will probably fall to the support at 1.3220 and then perhaps the top of the range at 1.3180 - if it is a strong move. However, the recent breakout from the consolidation has still not met its target at 1.3335, where other resistance is also clustered and eventually I see a rally…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD broke out of its range and rose yesterday and now it is consolidating and will probably pull-back to the range highs at 1.3220 and possibly to 1.3150 thereafter if the correction gathers strength. After that the move up will probably resume with the price objective for the breakout from the box at 1.3615, which is the same level as the upper channel line, although strong resistance at 1.3340 from pivots could cap gains…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Earlier forecasts, expecting 1.3040/30 support level to halt the "bearish" movement and push the price back to 1.3210/20 – 1.3080/90 consolidation range confirmed, so the price now resides at 1.3130/49 level. Indicators are unclear, suggesting rising uncertainty in the market. 1.3080/70/1.3040/30 support levels breakouts will be a signal to anticipate further downtrend towards 1.3000 and then to 1.2900 level. 1.3230/20 resistance breakout…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Earlier breached uptrend (green) line held back the price from going back to the channel's sector. Trading declined below 1.3150/40 support, but the price is currently attempting to ascend again. Trading is carried out at 1.3160/50. Indicators seem to be more "bearish", although they are moving horizontally, suggesting further sideways movement within 1.3210/20 – 1.3080/90 range. 1.3080/70 support breakout will indicate strong "bearish"…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The price managed to ascend above 1.3150/40 level, but 1.3210/15 line hindered further growth, so the price is now likely to retrace back under 1.3150/40 support. Indicators are turning down, giving more reasons to anticipate a reversal down. If the pair continues to decline and the price tests earlier breached uptrend (green) line as a resistance and pulls back, we'll be expecting a highly possible reversal. 1.3080/70 support breakout will…