April 2012 Blog Posts (16)

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The eurodollar pair has corrected 61.8% of the previous down move in early April and it could be about to resume its major down-trend. It is falling, but whether this is a short term correction or part of a bigger sell-off is too early to say. It will probably continue lower until it gets to 1.3208 at the lower channel line, where there is also support from the 50-day moving average. From there it may either recover to the top of the…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Eurodollar has found support from the 50-day moving average and begun rallying. Currently it has reached the 1.3210s at the upper line of the down-sloping channel on the hourly chart, where it is consolidating before its next move. It will probably continue higher and reach its target at 1.3265 with upside eventually capped at another trend-line at 1.3295. A move down would target the lower channel line at 1.3150.…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The rally in the euro has risen even higher defying forecasts that it would fall. The move must now still be a correction of the bear move from the early April highs rather than a new wave down as I originally thought - despite the apparently over-extended wave count. The correction has reached back a Fibonacci 61.8% of the previous move, and has put in a 2-bar reversal candlestick pattern on the hourly chart; in addition momentum is…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Eurodollar has risen from the 1.3100 lows and now reached the 1.3170s. There is the possibility of some more upside to just shy of 1.3200 which would result in wave equality, but there are lots of bearish signals too. We are at the 61.8% fibonacci retracement of the previous down-move and an obvious place for the rally to stall; there is a shooting star on the hourly and we have reached the 50-day MA, as well as the 200-4hr. It is quite…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Eurodollar has probably completed its corrective phase and there is a very good chance it could be beginning a new cycle down, with eventual targets below the previous 1.2995 lows. One possible Elliot count could be to view Friday's rally as completing a double zig-zag correction, with the way now open to the initiation of a new impulse down. Today's strong bearish move could be the beginning of that impulse. There is support from the…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The eurodollar pair completed its upside correction and then began falling as expected. At the same time a head and shoulders pattern broke its neckline and the exchange rate also pierced through major support at 1.3105. It will probably move down to reach the H&S target at 1.3040, however after that there is the possibility of a bounce as downside has been a little weak so far and it is possible the new cycle lower hasn't begun yet.…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Earlier concerns, that 1.2770/90 support might turn out to be a strong barrier, confirmed - the price pulled back up and now resides at 1.3140/30 levels. Some indicators have turned up, but SS keeps on to decline, suggesting to consider current growth a correction to the recent decline. The situation looks rather unclear. Medium term bearish sentiment is now dominating, so we expect another decline towards the next targets at 1.2870/80,…

USD/JPY: Technical Analysis

The move down in the USD/JPY reached support at Wednesday's lows and then bounced. Now the bounce has stalled at the lower channel line and the the 38.2% fibonacci line. Normally, given the overhead resistance and the bearish bias I would expect more downside, however, the combination of support just under at 80.80 – from both the weekly and the monthly pivots stand in the way of a deeper sell-off. If the move higher continues and breaks…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The price keeps on consolidating within previously formed sideways range. The pair's picture hasn't changed significantly - indicators are still "bearish", but they now seem to become more neutral. Earlier forecasts still apply, so it's worth expecting further decline towards 1.2970/80 support range and then to 1.2870/80 and 1.2750 levels. Should the price rise and hold above 1.3290/1.3300, it'll be considered as a signal for reversal…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The price kept on consolidating within narrow ranges. Forecasts confirmed - the "bulls" attempted to test the auxiliary trend line (blue dashed line) as a resistance, but failed - trading reversed down and is now carried out at 1.3100/10. Indicators are mostly "bearish", which gives reasons to expect further dowtrend and another decline towards earlier mentioned 1.2970/80 support range and then lower, to 1.2870/80 and 1.2750 levels. If the…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The price breached 1.3100/05 support and reached 1.3040/30 level. At the moment we observe sideways correction to be formed, trading is carried out at 1.3090/80 levels. Earlier forecasts are still relevant - further decline towards 1.2970/80 support may commence anytime soon, plus the price has all chances to fall lower towards 1.2870/80 and 1.2750 levels too. Indicators say in favor of this scenario. When correcting, the price may test…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Earlier forecasts confirmed - the price declined to the auxiliary trend line (blue dashed line) and then reached level 1.3100/05, which proved to be a strong resistance, so trading pulled back up and now resides at 1.3240/50 level. Indicators suggest a downtrend, which gives enough reasons to anticipate another decline and 1.2970/80 support test. However, currently tested level may halt dissension or even initiate further correction. To…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Bearish sentiment dominated - the price breached 1.3290 support and declined. At the moment it's approaching 1.3120/40 support, mentioned earlier as the first target. Trading is carried out at 1.3180/90 level. Indicators suggest further downtrend, which gives reasons to anticipate the auxiliary trend line (blue-dashed line) to be tested anytime soon with deeper decline towards 1.3200 level. It's worth noting, that the price has good chances…

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EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Eurodollar is still bumping up against the range highs and has formed what looks like a possible reversal pattern. It is probable that there will be break lower and a breach of the trend-line for the whole rally up from the 15th Mar lows. The monthly pivot at 1.3260 provides an initial target with 1.3205 as the next target after that.…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

No significant changes have been made to the structure, so the price stayed within the range and is now approaching 1.3380 resistance, mentioned earlier as the key barrier on the way up. Indicators are unclear, so future outlook is rather vague and earlier forecasts still apply - 1.3380 resistance breakout will give more reasons to expect a reversal towards the uptrend channel (red lines) with 1.3480/90 level, being the next barrier on the…