August 2008 Blog Posts (36)

JDfn Daily Digest - August 13, 2008

U.S. import prices rose by 1.7% in July, mostly on prices for imported petroleum and natural gas. Prices were up 21.6% over the past 12 months, the largest 12-month increase in the history of the index. Excluding all fuels, import prices rose by 0.7% in July.

U.S. retail sales dropped 0.1% in July, as falling auto sales offset an increase in gasoline sales sparked by higher prices. Excluding the 2.4% decline in vehicle sales, seasonally adjusted retail sales rose 0.4% in July, the… Continue

Added by Jack Lott on August 13, 2008 at 10:51am — No Comments

JDfn Daily Digest - August 12, 2008

The Commerce Department said that the U.S. trade gap narrowed by 4.1% to $56.8 billion in June on record exports and a decline in non-oil imports. Exports increased 4% in June to a record $164.4 billion, the biggest gain in four years. Meanwhile, imports rose 1.8% to a record $221.2 billion, largely because of the record $117 price for a barrel of crude oil.

Chain-store sales for the week ended Aug. 9th rose 2.6% from the year-earlier period. On a week-over-week basis, sales dropped… Continue

Added by Jack Lott on August 12, 2008 at 9:01am — No Comments

JDfn Daily Digest - August 11, 2008

According to the Lundberg Survey, the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline at self-serve stations was $3.85 Friday, down almost 15 cents from two weeks ago. Mid-grade went for $3.98 and premium went for $4.10.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is taking a patient approach when it comes to the possibility of a second round of economic aid. Paulson says the $168 billion program of tax rebate checks that President Bush signed into law in February was the right size to help the… Continue

Added by Jack Lott on August 11, 2008 at 10:14am — No Comments

news for the week of Aug 10

Sun

Aug 10 9:30pm AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement

Mon

Aug 11 2:00am EUR German WPI m/m 0.5% 0.9%

2:00am JPY Machine Tool Orders y/y -2.5%

2:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m 0.5% -2.6%

4:30am GBP PPI Input m/m 1.0% 2.1%

4:30am GBP Trade Balance -7.4B -7.5B

4:30am GBP PPI Output m/m 0.5% 0.9%

8:15am CAD Housing Starts 210K 218K

8:30am CAD New Housing Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.0%

7:01pm GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on August 8, 2008 at 10:51pm — No Comments

this may be the sign of further dollar strengh into next week!!!

Dollar's sharp broad based rally extends further today with the support of weakness in commodity prices. Gold breaches $860 level briefly and remains weak. Crude oil also dives to as low as 117.36 and is set to test this week's low of 117.11. Commodity currencies remain the biggest losers today with bearish rate expectation on RBA and RBNZ. Further pressure is seen in the Canadian dollar after the release of much worse than expected Jun employment report. Note that as we mentioned earlier, both… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on August 8, 2008 at 8:12pm — No Comments

JDfn Daily Digest - August 7, 2008

The Labor Department reported that initial applications for unemployment insurance rose by a seasonally adjusted 7,000 to 455,000 for the week ending Aug. 2nd. The increase left claims at their highest level since late March 2002.

The European Central Bank and the Bank of England both left their benchmark interest rates unchanged as they ponder how best to steer their economies between the shoals of mounting inflation and slowing growth. European Central Bank President Jean- Claude… Continue

Added by Jack Lott on August 7, 2008 at 10:22am — No Comments

weekly unemployment numbers.

In the week ending Aug. 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 455,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 448,000. The 4-week moving average was 419,500, an increase of 26,750 from the previous week's revised average of 392,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.5 percent for the week ending July 26, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 2.5 percent.

The advance number for… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on August 7, 2008 at 9:42am — No Comments

JDfn Daily Digest - August 6, 2008

There's lots of news centering on the U.S. housing situation today -

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly application survey, mortgage application volume rose 2.8 percent during the week ending Aug. 1st. The MBA's application index rose to 432.6 from 420.8 a week earlier, which was the lowest reading of the year.

According to Richard Syron, the chairman and CEO of Freddie Mac (FRE), U.S. house prices will fall by as much as 20 percent nationally and the… Continue

Added by Jack Lott on August 6, 2008 at 12:04pm — No Comments

fundamentals or technicals

Fundamental analysis is a method of evaluation by attempting to measure intrinsic value. Fundamental analysts study everything from the overall economy; current and future economic conditions to the financial conditions and future expectations along with what may be factored into the market.

Technical analysis is the evaluation of price or future price movements by studying statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume. Technical analysts do not attempt to… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on August 6, 2008 at 8:07am — No Comments

Greater Fool Theroy

As oil prices pull back and look more and more like the exit of a commodity bubble I want to introduce traders to the (Greater Fool Theory) this is the idea a lot of traders use when prices first begin there retracement.

The idea behind the greater fool theory is that it is possible to make money by buying in an overvalued market and later selling them at a profit because there will always be someone that is (a bigger fool) who is willing to pay the higher price.

When… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on August 5, 2008 at 3:20pm — No Comments

JDfn Daily Digest - August 5, 2008

The Federal Open Market Committee kept its benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 2.0%. The decision was anticipated by traders and economists on Wall Street. In its statement, the Fed gave no sign that it plans to change policy in the foreseeable future. There was one dissent from Dallas Fed Richard Fisher, who wanted to hike rates.

Oil prices continue to fall, sinking as low as $118 a barrel on growing concerns that a U.S. economic slowdown tied to high energy costs are curbing… Continue

Added by Jack Lott on August 5, 2008 at 10:00am — No Comments

Economic releases for week of Aug 8

Sun

Aug 3 6:45pm NZD Labor Cost Index q/q 0.8% 0.7%

7:50pm JPY Monetary Base y/y 0.4%

9:30pm AUD House Price Index q/q -1.1% 0.4%

Mon

Aug 4 3:30am CHF SVME PMI 53.4 54.9

4:30am EUR Sentix Investor Confidence -10.0 -9.3

4:30am GBP Construction PMI 37.6 38.8

5:00am EUR PPI m/m 0.8% 1.2%

6:22am USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 46.7%

All Day CAD Holiday: Civic Holiday

8:30am USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.2% 0.2%

8:30am USD Personal… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on August 4, 2008 at 12:07pm — No Comments

for those of you that tune into the radio shows, this is the trade that was setting up that James and I were discusing on air I was looking for this to the short side as you can see it has played nic…

for those of you that tune into the radio shows, this is the trade that was setting up that James and I were discusing on air I was looking for this to the short side as you can see it has played nicely off the Fib Fan and 50day SMA after over extending the Day ATR using a float stratagy to pick up a quick 40 pips on this trade i will continue to adjust my stop on this position in case it breaks lower below the support at 103.00 but want to secure as… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on August 4, 2008 at 11:57am — No Comments

JDfn Daily Digest - August 4, 2008

Consumer spending dropped by 0.2 percent in June, after removing the effects of higher prices. This is the poorest showing since a similar drop in February. The higher prices reflect a big increase in gasoline prices and helped to drive an inflationary gauge tied to consumer spending up by 0.8 percent in June, the biggest increase since a one percent rise in February 1981. Personal incomes rose just 0.1% after a 1.8% surge in May.

The Commerce Department also reported that inflation… Continue

Added by Jack Lott on August 4, 2008 at 10:12am — No Comments

non farm

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: JULY 2008

The unemployment rate rose to 5.7 percent, and nonfarm payroll employment

continued to trend down in July (-51,000), the Bureau of Labor Statistics of

the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Employment continued to fall in

construction, manufacturing, and several service-providing industries, while

health care and mining continued to add jobs. Average hourly earnings rose by

6 cents, or 0.3 percent, over the… Continue

Added by Adam Horak on August 1, 2008 at 12:26pm — No Comments

JDfn Daily Digest - August 1, 2008

Non-farm payrolls fell for the seventh straight month in July while the unemployment jumped to 5.7%, a four-year high. Payrolls fell by 51,000 in July, led by losses in manufacturing, construction, retail and temporary help. Since December, 463,000 jobs have been lost, the strongest signal that the economy is in a recession.

The Institute for Supply Management reported that U.S. manufacturing activity was flat in July. The ISM manufacturing index slipped from 50.2% in June to 50% in… Continue

Added by Jack Lott on August 1, 2008 at 11:00am — No Comments