Adam Horak's Blog (92)

As oil prices pull back and look more and more like the exit of a commodity bubble I want to introduce traders to the (Greater Fool Theory) this is the idea a lot of traders use when prices first begin there retracement.



The idea behind the greater fool theory is that it is possible to make money by buying in an overvalued market and later selling them at a profit because there will always be someone that is (a bigger fool) who is willing to pay the higher price.



When… Continue

Sun

Aug 3 6:45pm NZD Labor Cost Index q/q 0.8% 0.7%

7:50pm JPY Monetary Base y/y 0.4%

9:30pm AUD House Price Index q/q -1.1% 0.4%



Mon

Aug 4 3:30am CHF SVME PMI 53.4 54.9

4:30am EUR Sentix Investor Confidence -10.0 -9.3

4:30am GBP Construction PMI 37.6 38.8

5:00am EUR PPI m/m 0.8% 1.2%

6:22am USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 46.7%

All Day CAD Holiday: Civic Holiday

8:30am USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.2% 0.2%



8:30am USD Personal… Continue

for those of you that tune into the radio shows, this is the trade that was setting up that James and I were discusing on air I was looking for this to the short side as you can see it has played nicely off the Fib Fan and 50day SMA after over extending the Day ATR using a float stratagy to pick up a quick 40 pips on this trade i will continue to adjust my stop on this position in case it breaks lower below the support at 103.00 but want to secure as… Continue

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: JULY 2008



The unemployment rate rose to 5.7 percent, and nonfarm payroll employment

continued to trend down in July (-51,000), the Bureau of Labor Statistics of

the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Employment continued to fall in

construction, manufacturing, and several service-providing industries, while

health care and mining continued to add jobs. Average hourly earnings rose by

6 cents, or 0.3 percent, over the… Continue

In the week ending July 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 448,000, an increase of 44,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 404,000. The 4-week moving average was 393,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's revised average of 382,000.



The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.5 percent for the week ending July 19, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 2.3… Continue

The Employment Report/non farm payroll

• Importance (A-F): This release merits an A.

• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.

• Release Time: First Friday of the month at 8:30 ET for the prior month

• Raw Data Available At: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm.

The employment report is actually two separate reports which are the results of two separate surveys. The household survey is a survey of roughly 60,000 households. This survey… Continue

The Business of Trading





Starting Your Business



Now that you are a trader, you should always be on the lookout for ways to increase your returns. In addition to increasing the actual returns you make on trades, you should also look for ways your trading can make or save you money.



In reality, it doesn’t matter where your income or profit comes from as long as your cash increases at the end of each month. This is what I refer to as the business of… Continue

Sun

Jul 27 6:45pm NZD Trade Balance -0.50B -0.20B

8:00pm AUD Leading Index m/m 0.3%

9:30pm AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence -4

Mon

Jul 28 2:00am EUR German Consumer Confidence 3.5 3.9

12:00pm USD FOMC Member Mishkin Speaks

6:45pm NZD Building Consents m/m -42.3%

7:30pm JPY Overall Household Spending y/y 2.8% -3.2%

7:30pm JPY Unemployment Rate 4.0% 4.0%

7:50pm JPY Retail Sales y/y -0.2% 0.3%



Tue

Jul 29 All Day EUR German… Continue

A strong reading on durable goods orders may prove to be exactly what the greenback needed to strengthen against most majors during the U.S session.



U.S. durable goods orders rose unexpectedly in June, as autos posted their largest monthly gain in almost a year, the Commerce Department said on Friday.





Total new durables orders rose 0.8% in June after rising 0.1% in the prior month. Excluding transportation goods, new durable orders rose 2.0% after falling 0.5% in… Continue

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA



In the week ending July 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 406,000, an increase of 34,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 372,000. The 4-week moving average was 382,500, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average of 378,000.



The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.3 percent for the week ending July 12,… Continue

(reading through the Board of Governor notes inside the Beige Book, I am expecting the FED to remain on hold during the next FOMC meeting however of notice are the FED's concerns over inflation, I still believe we may see a rate hike by years end as a token gesture by the FED to try an ease the run up in inflationary pressures)



Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that the pace of economic activity slowed somewhat since the last report. Five eastern Districts… Continue

Sun

Jul 20 6:45pm NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m 9.4%

All Day JPY Holiday: Marine Day

7:01pm GBP Rightmove House Price Index m/m -1.2%

9:30pm AUD PPI q/q 1.6% 1.9%

9:30pm AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m -1.6%

11:00pm NZD Credit Card Spending y/y 5.9%

Mon

Jul 21 3:15am CHF PPI m/m 0.4% 1.2%

10:00am USD Leading Index m/m -0.1% 0.1%

7:50pm JPY All Industries Activity Index m/m 0.8%

Tue

Jul 22 2:15am CHF Trade Balance 1.87B

4:45am GBP BOE… Continue