CAD, Aussie and Gold Weekly Update - Jan.21/25 close

USDCAD

Weekly charts show the USD/Cad at the bottom of a falling wedge inside a descending channel, with a possible double bottom formation from which I would expect a reversal to the upside towards the middle line of the Bollinger bands at around 1.0120 and further to the SMA34 at 1.0250. On the daily charts, we have a bell-shaped descending channel and price was contained by the SMA34 but held above the middle line of the bands. A retracement to just above parity to a 50% Fibonacci level would be my first target, then a continuation towards the 61.8% retracement and SMA100, and a test of SMA200 at around 1.0250 level as third possible level on the bullish side. If the channel resistance holds, we would be seeing a retest of the previous lows at around 0.9850, and an extension to the 127% Fibonacci level and lower line of the channel at around 0.9750.

AUDUSD

The Aussie ended last week sitting at key level 0.9900 just above the lower trend line of the ascending channel. This pair still looks bullish though it has lost some of its steam due to this week’s latest fundamentals. We have a wide consolidation range between 1.0070 and 0.9800 on daily charts, and what looks as a double top on weekly charts. We briefly went back to parity on Monday, then again to just below 0.9900 where price was again rejected to the upside.

On the hourly charts we seem to have an inverted head and shoulders pattern which if confirmed would lead to a projection towards Monday highs as a first step, and then about 1.0050 (taking 0.9970 as the neckline). Although it is a little early to speculate on this, if this bullish scenario takes place we could then have a potential head and shoulders/crown formation on the weekly charts with the neckline at around 0.9800, giving a projection to the downside towards 0.9520/0.9500 on a longer term, and aiming further low to a 38% Fibonacci retracement on the whole move up from mid-2010 (0.8085/1.0246) at around 0.9420.

XAUUSD (GOLD)

Gold has seen a continuation of its bearish run towards a 38% Fibonacci retracement on weekly charts, and crossed daily SMA100 coming near the 127% extension of the previous swing low ending at 1343.33. Not much to add for this pair, the expectations are the same as expressed on previous week analysis: a retracement to the 50% weekly Fibonacci level and SMA34 at 1300.00/1290.00 with a second target to retest previously broken resistance which is now offering support at 1260.00.