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Caroline Carlin's Blog (169)

CAD, Aussie and Gold Weekly Overview - September 23 close

USDCAD

Last week showed a fantastic bullish break and surge of more than 200 pips above parity for the Loonie, reaching the weekly 161.8% extension on the previous swing high, and closing well above the 138.2% level after a small correction. Both our targets at the weekly SMA100 and the projection of the flag pole at 1.0238/40 were met, the…

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Added by Caroline Carlin on September 25, 2011 at 4:03pm — No Comments

Yen Pairs Weekly Overview - September 23 close

USDJPY

The Dollar-Yen didn’t reach the lows and remained last week in a tight range between round numbers 76.00 and 77.00. We could be having a double bottom on the daily charts and my expectations are for a bullish break of the confluence of the daily SMA34 and middle line of the Bollinger bands, targeting the resistance at previous highs…

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Added by Caroline Carlin on September 25, 2011 at 1:43pm — No Comments

Swiss Franc Weekly Overview - September 23 close

EURCHF

The Euro-Swiss Franc made a new high last week at 1.2340, reaching and breaking above our target at the weekly SMA34 level. We are still away from the descending trend line and price could be contained by the strong resistance area between 1.2350 and 1.2390, with also the daily SMA200 in the middle. If that level is broken, we might…

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Added by Caroline Carlin on September 25, 2011 at 10:41am — No Comments

Euro and Pound Weekly Overview - September 23 close

EURUSD

Last week the markets opened with a downside gap for the Euro-Dollar, briefly closed for a continuation and small breach of the previous week’s lows, as expected in our bearish scenario, and finally ending at about the same price, just above round number 1.3500. I would expect further downside for this pair, targeting the daily 127%…

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Added by Caroline Carlin on September 24, 2011 at 4:27pm — No Comments

Australian Dollar Update

I didn’t expect the downwards gap in my previous analysis and we had a nice descent afterwards, retest and small breach of previous lows at 1.0180. However, we can see on the hourly charts that price bounced neatly from the trendline that is binding those to August lows, and seems to be recovering to the upside. This could be the end of an Elliott Wave 5 and the subsequent projection of the next C wave at a 38.2% retracement on wave 2, brings us to around 1.0360.…

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Added by Caroline Carlin on September 20, 2011 at 5:04am — No Comments

Yen Pairs Weekly Overview - September 16 close

USDJPY

As expected, the Dollar-Yen went back to the lows of the previous week, and stayed inside a range from Wednesday to Friday. There is no clear direction for this pair as of now, although I would expect some bearish continuation if the bottom at 76.00 is broken, in extension towards 71.80, 70.30 and 66.30 as successive medium-to-long-term…

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Added by Caroline Carlin on September 18, 2011 at 4:09pm — No Comments

Swiss Franc Weekly Overview - September 16 close

EURCHF

Very little action for the Euro-Swiss Franc last week. This pair stayed in a very small range after its previous week’s surge and is lingering barely above the 61.8% retracement from the last swing low. We might attempt to reach 1.2260/70 at the weekly SMA34 level or even to the upper trendline of the descending channel, and I expect from there…

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Added by Caroline Carlin on September 18, 2011 at 5:45am — No Comments

Euro and Pound Weekly Overview - September 16 close

EURUSD

The Euro-Dollar barely made a new low last week, with price well supported at 1.3500 from where it bounced back for a retest of the broken ascending trend line and pierced the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, ending just above the weekly SMA100. Our bullish views were on point as price went well above our targets reaching above 1.3900. I would…

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Added by Caroline Carlin on September 18, 2011 at 4:29am — No Comments

The Truth Beneath Winning And Losing Streaks

There is an enormous amount of erroneous stereotypes made up by human beings so they can avoid to take responsibility for the results of their actions.



Neither a series of successful trades in your account, nor a losing spree debacle happen merely "by chance". In trading as well as in life, ups and downs occur in succession, these are unavoidable cycles, and some of them trend a bit before reversing, but the clue to the winning or losing streak is simply your own ability to…

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Added by Caroline Carlin on September 16, 2011 at 10:29am — No Comments

CAD, Aussie and Gold Weekly Overview - September 09 close

USDCAD

The Loonie rose as expected last week, reaching barely 23 pips below parity, which it finally achieved earlier today. At the present moment the price is a little above Friday’s high but was rejected from the new highs it made at 1.0025. It is too soon to predict here a double top, but we could consider it might have a retrace to…

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Added by Caroline Carlin on September 12, 2011 at 9:22am — No Comments

Yen Pairs Weekly Overview - September 09 close

USDJPY

The Dollar-Yen modestly rose as we had expected, not yet reaching our targets though, but slightly breaking above the previous highs and ending on Friday above the confluence of the daily SMA34 and middle line of the Bollinger bands. There is still some more road to travel on the weekly charts to reach the middle bands, and the pair…

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Added by Caroline Carlin on September 12, 2011 at 7:15am — No Comments

Swiss Franc Weekly Overview - September 09 close

EURCHF

The Euro-CHF reversed to the upside last week, reaching near the SMA34 and closing at the 61.8% weekly Fibonacci retracement level. We have a strong engulfing candle and a fairly high possibility for this pair to start a new trend, however we are still as of today below the weekly SMA34 from which we could bounce back down for a retest of…

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Added by Caroline Carlin on September 12, 2011 at 4:50am — No Comments

Euro and Pound Weekly Overview - September 09 close

EURUSD

The weekly support at SMA34 and 38.2% retracement level failed to hold for the Euro-Dollar and the price broke further down, closing at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Since the beginning of this week, it has reached below the daily 138.2% extension on the previous swing low, and we could expect a continuation of the bearish move towards…

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Added by Caroline Carlin on September 12, 2011 at 3:07am — No Comments

CAD, Aussie and Gold Monthly Outlook - September 2011

Weekly Update - September 02 close

USD/CAD

Monthly chart patterns suggest a possible double bottom (2007-2011) and thus a trend reversal could be in the making. We also have another triple bottom if we take account of April, May and July candles. The USD/CAD almost retraced all the way to the lows and is fighting…

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Added by Caroline Carlin on September 5, 2011 at 7:39am — No Comments

Yen Pairs Monthly Outlook - September 2011

 

Weekly Update - September 02 close

USD/JPY

The Dollar-Yen has been forming a pronounced falling wedge, ending near the bottom line last month. There is still some room to the downside but I would expect a bullish turn soon to break the upper line; there is a second descending channel line (a wider wedge, not…

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Added by Caroline Carlin on September 5, 2011 at 2:29am — No Comments

Swiss Franc Monthly Outlook - September 2011

Weekly Update - September 02 close

EUR/CHF

The Swiss Franc has been exhibiting a continued strength over the last two years and August was again a bearish month for the EUR/CHF after July’s strong rejection from the…

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Added by Caroline Carlin on September 4, 2011 at 6:59pm — No Comments

Euro and Pound Monthly Outlook - September 2011

Weekly Update - September 02 close

EUR/USD

Over the last three months, the Euro-Dollar has been closely following the previous descending trend line with subsequent pin bars, after April’s break and May retest of…

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Added by Caroline Carlin on September 4, 2011 at 5:53am — No Comments

CAD, Aussie and Gold Weekly Overview - July 22 close

USDCAD

We have a double bottom both on the weekly and daily charts. Last week the price bounced back up from the lower line of the daily descending channel after testing May lows. I would expect a 50% retracement on weekly near 0.9660/70 which coincides with the middle line of the Bollinger bands, and as a second step a retest of the highs around…

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Added by Caroline Carlin on July 24, 2011 at 7:09pm — No Comments

Yen Pairs Weekly Overview - July 22 close

USDJPY

The Dollar-Yen maintained its bearish tone last week, reaching the bottom line of a falling wedge and making a new low. In my opinion, there is still momentum to push further down to a 138.2% Fibonacci extension on the previous swing low, or even attempt to retest the level of the last spike down near round number 76.00 and the 161.8%…

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Added by Caroline Carlin on July 24, 2011 at 3:29pm — No Comments

Swiss Franc Weekly Overview - July 22 close

EURCHF



This was a bullish week for the Euro-Swissie, which bounced from the bottom line of the descending channel and ending on a strong rejection of round number 1.1900. We have a falling wedge forming and I would expect a further…

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Added by Caroline Carlin on July 23, 2011 at 9:45pm — No Comments

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