CAD, Aussie and Gold Weekly Update - Jan.28 close

USDCAD

The Loonie had a second bullish week after breaking and coming back from previous weekly lows at around 0.9940. Friday candle penetrated the daily SMA34 and almost reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement level on previous swing low, which coincides with the upper trend line of the descending channel, a few pips above parity. On a medium-term approach, I would expect a continuation to the upside towards 1.0100 (middle line of the weekly Bollinger Bands) as a first target and secondly 1.0200/30 (daily previous highs and weekly SMA34). A further continuation of the bearish move would lead us to the weekly 127% and daily 138.2% Fibonacci extension of the previous respective low swings, and given this week’s start we could consider this option to be on the line, however we can still expect a reversal from the lower line of the weekly channel and previous lows at 0.9800/0.9840. If the bearish sentiment is confirmed, targets would be around 0.9740/0.9690.

AUDUSD

Another ranging week for the Aussie, ending just above 0.9900 with a doji in a slightly ascending line following the daily SMA100, but closing below the recently broken weekly bullish trend line and just above the level of the middle line of Bollinger Bands. The expectations on weekly were of a retracement down to the 38.2% Fibonacci level, and a break of the daily SMA100 to around 0.9640, however today’s sustained bullish break and surge well above parity with a wide range of more than 130 pips makes me wonder if we aren’t yet prepared for a heavy correction and this pair still has steam to reach further heights. Personally, I don’t expect this pair to go much higher than 1.0150 and a retest of parity should be soon on the lines before further bullish attempts, which will be targeting most probably December highs at 1.0250/60.   

XAUUSD (GOLD)

A doji on weekly charts and a double-bottoming tweezers on daily makes me wonder if we aren’t in front of the end of Gold correction and heading again towards psychological magnet level at 1500.00. Still some way to go but as of today 1350.00 level (daily SMA100) seems to be holding and we could have some tight consolidation in this range (1310.00/1350.00) before continuing the correction down to support area at around 1260.00/1270.00.