CAD, Aussie and Gold Weekly Update - May 13 close

USDCAD

The Loonie went below the expected bearish target and broke below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on the daily charts, while ending on a long-wicked spinning top on the weekly. The price recovered and bounced again to the upside crossing back through the daily SMA34 and making a new high but still rejected by the resistance level at 0.9720.

The level was finally broken on Monday and price is now in the process of retesting the break, and trading below the SMA100. It would seem the bullish impulse is weakening a little but the pair might gather again some force to make a second attempt to reach the round number 0.9800. I would personally favor a fall back to 0.9620/00 and the middle line of the bands in confluence with the SMA34, but we have another support line at 0.9660 which can be tough.

If the SMA100 is broken and round number 0.9800 is reached and also crossed, the next step would be the resistance area at 0.9840/60. On a medium term approach, the price could climb to the next levels at 0.9900/10 (daily SMA200) and 0.9950/70 as the second bullish target.

AUDUSD

The Aussie did a retracement to the 61.8% Fibonacci level on the previous swing low, and then gave back all those gains the rest of the week, making a new low around 1.0520. This week started with the price going back to the upside for a retest of the broken SMA34, but the overall tone is bearish in my opinion and we could see further descent towards 1.0420/00, 1.0360 and 1.0250/00 over the next weeks. There is also a strong support area between 1.0270 and 1.0210.

We are presently hovering above a strong support though, and a bullish alternative would bring us back for a retest of the all-time highs but if this occurs, it will be done after some accumulation in the 1.0500/1.0850 range.

XAUUSD (GOLD)

Gold ended last week on an inside weekly doji and exhibited a continuation of the ranging move on daily charts that it had started at the end of the previous week. Consolidation after a huge engulfing candle. Price has held above the SMA34 but has been slightly drifting lower since Sunday open. I would expect a continuation to the downside and 50% retracement based on the weekly swing high, as first step, then a continuation to the confluence of the middle line of the Bllinger bands and the SMA34 above which we have some good support between 1450.00 and 1420.00. A projection of the previous daily swing low (flagpole) would bring us lower to around 1400.00/1390.00 and the SMA200.