CAD, Aussie and Gold Weekly Update - Feb. 11/16 close

USDCAD

The Loonie gained and gave back almost all gains on a very volatile week, ending with a long-wicked hammer on weekly charts, and a 100-pip bearish candle on the daily charts. This pair seems to be still consolidating despite its struggle to pierce through parity, and is hovering mostly between 0.9830 and 0.9990. The last three days have been very slightly bearish but ending down barely 20/25 pips lower than last Friday, almost at the level of this month lows. I would expect a continuation to the downside, targeting below 0.9835 with 0.9780/60 as first step, 0.9725/10 as a second medium-term target and finally on a longer term approach we could reach below 0.9700 on further bearish extension but conservatively I would expect some kind of reaction at the round number before a continuation of the down trend.

AUDUSD

Price action has been hovering between 1.0070 and 0.9940 after a bearish week which ended on the confluence of the daily SMA34 and middle line of the Bollinger bands, while the weekly charts show a 50% correction on the move of the previous week. The pair made a new low on Tuesday but gave back all its move as of yesterday, presently remaining above parity and just a few pips above Friday close. I don’t think we will see a spectacular break either side in what remains of this week, however if 1.0080 is broken we could see an attempt to retest and break psychological level 1.0200. I would expect the Aussie to keep ranging for a while in what seems to be a comfortable range.

XAUUSD (GOLD)

Gold continued the correction of the previous weeks on its daily swing low, reaching the 50% Fibonacci retracement but bouncing back down from the confluence of SMA100 and SMA34 at around 1366.00 and closing 10 pips below. The weekly charts show a steady ascension from January pin bar and ended just below the middle line of the Bollinger bands. Outlook on last Friday was aiming for a retest of the 50% weekly Fibonacci level at 1295.00/1300.00. However this week the price has been steadily rising and we could possibly expect it to resume the bullish trend (it is presently trading at the daily 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level) if this resistance breaks. Medium-term targets are located at 1392.00 (January highs), then next level would be a retest of the highs at 1430.00/1431.00, and maybe this time will be the right one for a run to strong psychological level 1500.00, as we had stated in our previous analysis. We still have some room on the downside though, with a strong support level at 1265.00/1260.00 (61.8% weekly Fibonacci retracement and daily 138.2% extension on previous swing low) if previous lows at 1295.00 do not hold.