CAD, Aussie and Gold Weekly Update - Feb. 18/23 close

USDCAD

Daily bullish pin bar on last Thursday was confirmed and the expectations for a correction to the upside were right, however we experienced a rejection from the upper Bollinger bands on Wednesday, after having reached the upper line of the daily falling wedge forming now a bearish pin bar yet to be confirmed at today’s close. However we have also a falling wedge on weekly charts and I would favor a move above parity, for a retest of January highs near 1.0060. We still will have to step through the previous daily tweezer top barely below parity, level that was almost reached yesterday before the rejection and which I think will be revisited despite that strong initial reaction.

AUDUSD

The Aussie seems to be wanting to continue in the rise towards December all-time highs and ended last week near the previous two-week highs, also near the upper trend line of a symmetrical triangle. On the Daily charts we can appreciate more of a ranging move between 0.9980 and 1.0150 levels, which it has kept on since Monday reaching again the previous area of support at 0.9966, also following the sudden NZD demise caused by the earthquake. Wednesday was back again towards the top of the range, and we are presently trading above the daily SMA34 but with a strong rejection of level 1.0080 which can be better seen on lower time frames (4 hour charts). I am mostly bullish on this pair and still maintain the expectations for a rise to 1.0200 then 1.0500, but there is going to be many steps on this staircase, especially for intraday targets. By now and on the shorter term, I would favor a rise to test the previous highs at 1.0150/60.

XAUUSD (GOLD)

Gold keeps on the rise with a stronger momentum shown last week, and is slowly heading towards its ultimate 1500.00 goal. This week we have almost reached the previous resistance at 1425.00 (barely 10 pips lower) and I am pretty much inclined to think that we will see a break of this level soon. First target area will be 1450.00/1460.00 and the daily 161.8% extension of previous swing high falls very near the round number target, which will most probably be reached over the next few months provided there is a sustained ascension as we had between August and November 2010.