CAD, Aussie and Gold Weekly Update - March 11/16 close

USDCAD

The Loonie ended last week on a doji candle just above 0.9700, after making a new low. Friday was a bearish day as for almost pairs as a result of Japan tragic events, nevertheless and though still needing to be confirmed, I was favoring a bullish move and correction towards the upper line of the descending channel, at a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (0.9850) which was impulsively reached and broken on Tuesday, closing just below, and the move was repeated today with fair chances for a bullish continuation from now on. Next weekly target at 0.9920 was also attained, and we are now waiting for the next steps above, previous daily highs at around 0.9960 and middle line of the weekly Bollinger bands, then previous weekly highs just above parity at 1.0060, between the 127% and 138.2% daily Fibonacci extensions. Price is presently being rejected at the daily SMA100 (0.9950/70 area) but I would favor a break through and further bullish push up to the SMA200 at 1.0110. Should this resistance be stronger than expected, a fall back to the daily SMA34 would be the first probable target (0.9820/00), then a retest of the previous lows in the 0.9660/0.9750 previous consolidation area.

AUDUSD

The Aussie ended last week on a long-legged doji/hammer candle, after Friday’s strong rejection from its daily 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Sunday markets opened with a gap down followed by a long consolidation during all Monday, starting its free fall on early Tuesday with a short-lived correction from 0.9800 support. We have almost reached psychological level 0.9700. The hourly time frame was showing a nice pin bar candle two hours before NY close, however this was a pause due to the triple swap day and as soon as the next candle opened the pair experienced a long and highly volatile 110 pips leg down, ending 30 pips below the 138.2% Fibonacci extension of the previous range, on both time frames. Volatility was such that spreads increased ten-fold and are still five-fold one hour later, when we see a correction on the previous hourly move but not so sure that this could be a temporary bottom by now. I would stay out of this pair for a while, and will be checking again in a few hours for a new overall analysis depending on the price action shown before London open.

As for now, price would have to reach and hold above 0.9860 for us to consider any potential for a bullish reversal.

XAUUSD (GOLD)

Presently trading at 1400.00, Gold reached 1380.00 level yesterday bouncing then from the daily SMA34 and SMA100. This corresponds roughly to the 50% Fibonacci retracement on weekly and daily charts. The markets are in a strong risk aversion mode, and the move could take a further fall towards the daily SMA200 and weekly SMA34 (1310.00/1330.00 respectively), also January lows. Provided the actual level is broken and we reach the previous lows, I would expect a 50% correction on the move and a return back to the present level. Japan fundamentals are influencing the whole Forex scene and nothing seems quite certain at the moment.