CAD, Aussie and Gold Weekly Update - March 25/30 close

USDCAD

The Loonie had a bearish week after the strong rejection from level 0.9976 and reached the expected consolidation area at 0.9750/30, correcting back for a retest of the daily SMA34 level on Friday. It has since continued its move to the downside and is presently almost reaching previous early March lows, trading at 0.9695. If the support breaks, we would be heading towards a 138.2% Fibonacci extension to around 0.9550. Should the lows at 0.9660 hold, another correction leg towards round number 0.9800/20 could be on the lines.

AUDUSD

The Aussie reached and broke its all-time highs last week, almost reaching the round number at 1.0300 and closing a few pips above the break on Friday. Risk-appetite moves came back in force and the expected projection was surpassed in a steady ascension since this week’s open, after a retest of 1.0200. A 138.2% extension on the recent weekly swing high gives a target close to 1.1000 and, given the sustained strength of this pair this could be achievable along the following weeks. However, price is presently struggling a bit near the upper trend line of the daily ascending channel, at 1.0360/70, and we could see a correction of the long bullish run from 0.9700 to at least 1.0200 (23.6% daily Fibonacci retracement). I do not think we have seen the top for this pair yet, however we should be aware of its swiftness when the carry unwinds and given that we are at the end of the month some profit taking might be due.

XAUUSD (GOLD)

Gold reached as expected its previous highs but failed to sustain the bullish run and fell back to a 38% Fibonacci retracement on the swing high. Price seems comfortable in the 1400.00/1450.00 range and has kept accumulating since the beginning of the week, now back to the upside. Still undecided about reaching the psychological 1500.00 mark, which we keep eyeing as an important goal, however on a shorter scope I would expect another attempt to break the highs and reach 1475.00/1480.00 in extension.