CAD, Aussie and Gold Weekly Overview - September 23 close

USDCAD

Last week showed a fantastic bullish break and surge of more than 200 pips above parity for the Loonie, reaching the weekly 161.8% extension on the previous swing high, and closing well above the 138.2% level after a small correction. Both our targets at the weekly SMA100 and the projection of the flag pole at 1.0238/40 were met, the second one much earlier than expected. Friday left a decision candle (long-legged doji) and we might have a retest of the 1.0000 level before further upside. A bullish continuation would bring us to the weekly SMA200 (around 1.0550/80) if 1.0400 is broken.

AUDUSD

Despite the moderate gap at last week’s opening, the Aussie failed to turn back up and close it; instead, and after some consolidation early in the week, it has fallen below August lows, reaching beyond the daily 161.8% Fibonacci extension and closing on Friday below that level and round number 0.9800. On the weekly charts, the price went all the way down to the SMA100 and below the 127% extension, from where it was rejected, ending with a small doji candle on Friday.

The early move of this pair has been to the upside, reaching 0.9860 and presently above the 30-minute SMA100 though I would expect a pull-back to the opening price or even last week’s lows, before initiating a correction for a retest of parity level, with intermediate targets at 0.9930 (broken August support and 38.2% correction on last week’s descent), and higher to 1.0060/70 (61.8% retracement).

Should we fail to correct and bears come back in force, next targets to the downside are the weekly 138.2% extension at 0.9615/00, and 161.8% extension around 0.9420/00.

XAUUSD (GOLD)

Gold lost nearly 20000 points after retracing to the 38.2% weekly Fibonacci level and touched the middle line of the Bollinger bands; on the daily charts, the fall reached the 138.2% extension and SMA100. I would expect a continuation of the bearish move towards the weekly SMA34 and daily 161.8% extension (1570.00/1.550.00) with intermediate support at May highs, and further to the daily SMA200 at around 1530.00. A bounce back to the upside would lead us to a retest of the broken support of August lows, near the round number 1700.00 as first target, and then the confluence of the daily SMA34 and middle line of the Bollinger bands at 1800.00 which, if broken, could lead to another attempt to breach the highs and reach the psychological level we are targeting at 2000.00.