Swiss Franc Weekly Overview - September 16 close

EURCHF

Very little action for the Euro-Swiss Franc last week. This pair stayed in a very small range after its previous week’s surge and is lingering barely above the 61.8% retracement from the last swing low. We might attempt to reach 1.2260/70 at the weekly SMA34 level or even to the upper trendline of the descending channel, and I expect from there a retracement to the levels set up last week: previous August highs around 1.1970, then 1.1900/1.1850 at the middle Bollinger band level, and possibly further correction to 1.1700/1.1650 before resuming an upwards move.

On the Daily charts, I maintain the expectations I had last week on the bullish side (provided some correction occurs), for a continuation and break of round number 1.2400, and subsequent attempt to perform an extension between 1.2500 and 1.2650 (127% and 138.2% respectively).

GBPCHF

Last week was mostly bearish for the Pound-Swiss Franc, which reached the upper line of the descending channel and then made a 23.6% correction on the previous daily swing high and bounced back to the upside on Friday. I still expect more correction to the weekly middle line of the Bollinger bands, around 1.3450, for a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on daily charts and perhaps a retest of the SMA100 at 1.3350 or even further to the SMA34 around 1.3200.

Should the highs and descending trend line be broken, we have another one to breach at around the 76.4% retracement of the downmove, near 1.4700. If this level is broken, we would be heading towards the weekly SMA100 at around 1.5500 medium-term. Daily targets are set at 1.4090, 1.4530 and 1.4650 on the upside, and at 1.3570, 1.3350 and 1.3200 on the downside.

USDCHF

The Swissie retraced last week to the SMA34 and closed above it at the 0.8760 level. The next step to attempt is the strong resistance area between 0.9300 and 0.9400, where it can encounter some struggle before continuing in its way back to parity. The next step in the way if it succeeds to break 0.9400, is 0.9700/80 around the SMA100 level.

On the Daily charts, the price retraced to the SMA200 as expected, and was rejected back to the upside, so I would expect a retest of last week’s highs around 0.8930, with continuation in extension to 0.9400 which is the 127% level on the whole move up from August lows.