Swiss Franc Weekly Update - Jan.14 close

EURCHF

Price retraced to the 38.2% Fibonacci level from previous swing low last week, which is also the previously broken support area level (1.2900/1.2950). It is also the median line of the bearish channel. We are still in a downtrend and on daily charts we can appreciate a wave 4 after the long descent which formed the wave 3. From here the expectations are of a return to the lower support area at 1.2410/1.2390 which if broken will lead us further down to around psychological level 1.2000. Daily price action and patterns show an inverted head and shoulders which seems to be completed by now, although a continuation to next level of resistance and Fibonacci 50% retracement/SMA100 could be on the lines if the bullish momentum continues this week, with the possibility of reaching the upper trend line of the weekly channel. 

GBPCHF

This pair has been forming a steeper angle in its weekly descent which now starts to look as a falling wedge. The trend is however still very bearish and price closed on Friday at the SMA100, although a little above previous support level and 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.5200/10. A push to the SMA200 and previous highs is possible, however I would favor a return back to the downside and a retest of late December/early January lows at around 1.4420. The resistance that seems to have been broken has yet to be confirmed with a stronger move to the upside.

USDCHF

The Swissie ended the week on a spinning top and is trading inside a bearish channel although its angle seems to be starting to turn. I would expect a break of the downtrend and a continuation to 1.0300/1.0600 on a longer term view, however there is a strong obstacle to be surpassed just above parity (1.0050) and the upmove could stop there and reverse to follow on the bearish side and look to retest the lows at 0.9300. On a shorter time span, 0.9780/0.9800 would be a key level which if broken will signal the return of the bulls, provided there is enough momentum to sustain the move.