Swiss Franc Weekly Update - Jan.28 close

EURCHF

A tweezer top on weekly charts marked a retracement to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on daily time frame, after price had almost reached daily SMA100 and weekly middle line of Bollinger Bands. Monday’s price action was a bounce back to the upside from the middle line of daily bands and middle line of weekly descending channel, where price will most probably continue for a retest and attempt to break the previous highs and daily SMA100 (1.3070/1.3130) as well as reach the upper trend line of the weekly descending channel. It is presently trading above 1.2950. A turn to the downside would see a revisit of the lows near psychological level 1.2400/1.2390.

GBPCHF

This pair was strongly rejected last week from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and daily SMA100, ending back slightly below SMA34. The weekly pattern is a descending channel inside a falling wedge and I would expect a continuation to the downside towards the lows at around 1.4410/1.4400, although Monday’s price action went back up to the 50% Fibonacci level, signaling a potential bullish attempt to break the upper line of the weekly descent towards SMA34, targeting the resistance area between 1.5700/1.5750 if previous highs do not hold. In my opinion, this week will probably see a consolidation around the 1.5100/1.5200 area before further action develops.

USDCHF

The Swissie has spent almost all previous week in a tight consolidation between 0.9390 and 0.9470, which seems to be continuing this week according to yesterday’s price action. A further push down to revisit the lows would be possible, but my views on this pair at the moment are 50/50 and the levels to attain would be 0.9600 to the upside (middle line of weekly Bollinger Bands and upper trend line of the daily descending channel)  and 0.9300/0.9290 on the bearish side for an attempt to break December 2010 lows.