Swiss Franc Weekly Update - March 11/15 close

The Euro vs. Swiss Franc reached the middle line of the weekly Bollinger bands and nearly touched the upper trend line of the descending channel, being rejected thereafter and closing near the 38% Fibonacci level on last long swing high. On the daily charts, the week started with a tight consolidation followed by a correction but Friday closed at the middle line of the Bollinger bands and just below the SMA34. We can see a Head and Shoulders pattern on the weekly time frame, and last week’s high could be the top of the right shoulder, which would lead us to a projection about 400/450 pips below the neckline (1.2800) targeting previous lows at around 1.2420/00. We have a symmetrical triangle on daily, which per the above and overall steady bearish tone of this pair long term will most probably break to the downside. This week’s price almost reached previous lows at 1.2711 and I would expect another test of this level for a fall in extension to 1.2600/1.2580 as a first target, provided the strong support at 1.2700 is broken. Should the Head and Shoulders pattern fail, we would have a continuation of the daily ascending channel towards previous highs at 1.3030 as a first target, and further on to reach around psychological level 1.3200 (February highs).

GBPCHF

Last week was a continuation of the weekly consolidation pattern for this pair, slightly breaking again the ascending trend line and heading towards the next staircase level at around 1.4800. We have seen early this week that indeed the price reached that level and broke below, and as of now the retest of it seems to be holding as a resistance. Price had made new lows and given this week’s price action, I would expect a continuation to the next daily Fibonacci extension level (138.2%) at around 1.4600/1.4580. First target at 127% extension was almost reached and gave support but given that 1.4800 has resisted I think we could even be targeting the previous weekly lows near 1.4400 (161.8% extension).

USDCHF

The Swissie keeps making new lows and seems about to break further down the weekly falling wedge as of today. We are trading near the bottom line and this is an area to watch (0.9140/70) as by this type of pattern we should expect a correction to the upside soon. However the US Dollar keeps losing ground and a continuation in extension towards 0.9050/00 seems quite possible, especially taking into account the strong round number level is very near. Should we start a bullish correction in the next days, the first target would be around 0.9420 which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on both weekly and daily charts, upper trend line of the weekly descending channel and also the daily SMA34 level.