Swiss Franc Weekly Update - March 18 close

EURCHF

The Euro-CHF broke support as expected, completing the weekly head and shoulders pattern, and reaching previous lows from where price was violently rejected back up to a 61.8% retracement on daily charts, and 50% of the weekly bearish move. I would expect a continuation of the upmove towards the upper trend line of the descending channel at around 1.3030/50 as a first target, although this bullish run could be contained by the confluence of the daily SMA100 and SMA34 just below the round number (1.2980/30). I would also expect secondly a retest of the recent lows (1.2420) and probably a break and continuation in extension towards the round 1.2200 level. Should this pair continue on the bullish side omitting the retest, we would be targeting round number 1.3200 (1.3190) at the daily SMA200 and previous weekly highs.

GBPCHF

The Pound-CHF broke support and went bearish as expected, going even further and making a new low below the previous 161.8% weekly extension on the swing. Although the right shoulder looks a bit small, we could say we also completed the pattern here and this was followed by a rejection to the upside, as it happened for the Euro-CHF. I would now expect a pull back to the daily upper trend line of the descending channel, at around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (1.4825) with further upside levels at 1.5000/1.4990 (50% and middle line of the daily Bollinger bands) and 1.5160 (61.8% and confluence of the daily SMA34 and SMA100).

USDCHF

The Swissie broke below its weekly descending channel and reached below the 138.2% weekly Fibonacci extension at 0.8923, 130 pips lower than the level we had expected. Given the overall bearish outlook despite some retracement on Friday, I would expect a continuation of the fall towards 0.8850/40 – 0.8800 (weekly 161.8% extension and daily 127% extension on the previous swing low, respectively). A more detailed analysis and overview for this pair can be found on the links below.