Swiss Franc Weekly Update - Feb. 04/08 close

EURCHF

This pair is still trading inside a descending weekly channel and performing a bullish correction which should reach the upper line of the channel and SMA34 at 1.3280/1.3300 as a first step (61.8% weekly Fibonacci retracement on previous swing low and 127/138.2% extension on previous daily swing high). Should the channel break to the upside, next levels to watch are 1.3480/1.3500 and a retest of the previous highs at 1.3830. A failure to get above 1.3300 would bring us back down to the daily SMA100 (around 1.3070) for a retest of the recent break.

GBPCHF

This week’s price action brought this pair above the 1.5400 resistance and upper line of the weekly descending channel inscribed in a falling wedge. It is presently trading just above 1.5500 and the expectations are aimed towards the weekly SMA34 at 1.5700/1.5715, which would bring us very near the daily SMA200 and psychological level 1.5800. From that point I would expect a bounce back down for a retest of the recently broken resistance.

USDCHF

The Swissie pierced the daily SMA34 and as of today price is getting near the middle line of the weekly Bollinger Bands (presently trading at 0.9640/50). I would expect a continuation to the upside to the daily SMA100 at 0.9700 as a first target, and a retest of the previous highs and 61.8% weekly Fibonacci retracement near 0.9780/0.9800. We could have a period of consolidation between 0.9600 and 0.9700 for a while as this was a strong magnetic area in early January.