Swiss Franc Weekly Update - Feb. 18/23 close

EURCHF

This pair started a leg down last week after bouncing from the weekly SMA34 and top of the descending channel, meanwhile it ended with a doji and at the bottom ascending trend line on the daily charts, just above the SMA34. The outlook is bearish as we have seen after the week end (though we had thought of a possible bounce up to psychological level 1.3000 for a retest of the daily middle line of the Bollinger bands, which didn’t occur) and price will probably push now through the 38% Fibonacci retracement (where it is presently trading) towards 1.2720/60 (weekly 61.8% and daily 50% Fibonacci retracements respectively from the previous swing low).

GBPCHF

Price bounced back from the daily SMA200 as well as the upper trend line of the descending channel and SMA34 on weekly charts. I would expect further continuation to the downside although it ended on a doji and upwards confluence of daily middle line of Bollinger bands and moving averages 100 and 34. This week the price has been falling below the daily 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on previous swing high, and it looks like it will continue falling towards the weekly 50% or even lower at the 61.8% retracement (1.5060/1.4910). This last level coincides with the previous daily lows which should hold. If they effectively do, we could be having a potential head and shoulders formation on the daily time frame with the neckline at around psychological level 1.4900.

USDCHF

The Swissie still looks very bearish despite its repeated attempts towards parity on previous weeks. Last one gave back almost all the previous two-week gains and ended below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, on weekly as well as on daily charts. As of today, price has broken the previous lows at 0.9330 and is consolidating between this level and 0.9300. Should this support be broken, we are heading towards a 127% extension both on daily and weekly time frames, at around 0.9212 with psychological level 0.9200 and bottom of the weekly channel very near.