Swiss Franc Weekly Update - May 06 close

EURCHF

The support for the Euro-Swiss Franc didn’t hold and price went precisely to the extension levels we were projecting (second target at 1.2590 and daily 127% extension on the previous swing low). Price should continue further down  to the weekly extensions on the weekly swing high range and also bottom of the descending channel. However we are at about the middle line of the channel and we could have a bounce back to the top if we make a triple bottom at the support zone 1.2420/00.  Projected bearish targets are this support as first step, then 1.2200 and 1.2100 (127% weekly extension and 138.2% extension at the bottom of the channel).

On the bullish side, price could attempt a retest of the break at 1.2730/35, second target at 1.2830 above the confluence of the daily moving averages SMA34 and SMA100 with the middle line of the bands, another resistance at around 1.3050 (SMA200 and 61.8% retracement on the previous week’s swing low) for a final push to the highs at 1.3250 and former weekly highs and top of the descending channel.

GBPCHF

The Pound-CHF ended last week on a pin bar which should be confirmed this week to be considered a bottom. Daily prices did a small 25% retracement on the fall, and I would expect a move towards the 50% or higher, between 1.4650 and 1.4700. The lows were retested as expected on our bearish analysis, but price came back above the support line (1.4275/80). On weekly charts, the upwards move could go at least to the 50% near psychological level 1.5000 and might attempt to break the highs around 1.5180. Given the pattern of the waves on the daily charts, price might range for a while between 1.4650 and 1.4780.

USDCHF

A bullish week for the Swissie, thanks to the weakness consensus amongst all majors. The pair came short of our lower targeted round number (0.8500) making a lower low about 0.8560, and coming back to the formerly broken support at the round number 0.8800, reaching the 138.2% extension on the weekly swing low. However this might not yet be the decisive bottom although a significative correction is long-time due for this pair. Will this be the Wolfe Wave 5 and should we now expect the projection to above parity? We still have to break above several resistance levels. If this is the start of a reversal for this pair, the targets I see short-term on the upside are 0.8950/25 (50% daily correction on the swing, previously broken support and SMA34 level), then the 61.8% Fibonacci level at around 0.9050, and 0.9300/50 at the daily SMA100 and previous weekly highs. More downside can still bring us to around 0.8400 but my views are bullish by now. The weekly charts show a falling wedge which is a bullish pattern, and daily charts have been making a rounded bottom.