Today’s Market Overview: AUD/USD

Here are my projections for today in regard to the Aussie, over-viewed just after the London markets open. We can see that in 15 minute charts, and after a bullish breakout of the resistance that had formed a consolidation since last Monday in the range 0.9426-0.9492, pushing finally through the psychological level 0.9500, this currency pair registered a considerable upward impulse, reaching highs of 0.9581 to then start a sharp descent after a relatively short consolidation. In this moment the pair is trying to get through the support that was formed at 0.9525 level in a first step, being nicely held by psychological level 0.9533; should it break down we would have the next level at around 0.9460-0.9450, which coincides with 200SMA in 30 minute charts.

The pair just made a pullback to the 38.2 Fibonacci (levels marked in red on the next chart) of the rise from previous consolidation, which also represents a 23.6% retracement (black fibo levels) of last swing high on 30 minute charts (0.9330-0.9580) and gravitates around the middle line of the Pitchfork, holding at 0.9533. The blue lines show the most significant areas of support and resistance of this pair in the last few days. We have a strong support waiting at 0.9500 which is also the 50% retracement of that swing high.

Presently, the Aussie has bounced from the median line of the Pitchfork and turned back towards the upper line of the channel, with a possible target of retesting the previous highs and very probably will try to reach 0.9600 as it represents a strong psychological level. Given the consistence of the momentum it has kept developing, Australian Dollar could continue in its quest towards the all-time highs, as explained in our previous longer term analysis.

Should it break the former support, the projections would be firstly directed towards the 38.2 black / 61.8 red levels at 0.9500 which is the base of the rising trend line on 15 minute charts, as well as another important psychological level - round number, then the 50% black level of pullback which coincides with the 80% red level in the previously crossed at 0.9460.

My point of view is that, if the Aussie gets there, we would again get into a consolidation on the range between 0.9430 and 0.9500. However, this currency pair is showing a hastily bullish trending so both possibilities are on the scene.